Clinton vs. Bush map

[pbrower2a]

Jeb Bush might get a slight Favorite Son effect in Florida, but probably not enough to win the state. He'd probably need the help of a re-elected Rick Scott, which isn't likely to materialize.

All scenarios showing any Republican close to defeating Hillary Clinton have involved Chris Christie before his alleged abuse of power. As it is I can't see Jeb Bush defeating Hillary Clinton where Obama won in 2012 except perhaps Florida. Jeb Bush, having not been elected in Florida even as a VP nominee, has been away too long from Florida politics to have more of an advantage than Gore in Tennessee in 2000.

I have North Carolina iffy -- and Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri undetermined out of a lack of polling.   

Jeb Bush would have been a better President than Dubya.

[pbrower2a]

A smart Republican Hispanic outreach would look like this:

-Education Reform
-Immigration Reform
-Talking to Catholics better
-Take a Rubio-style approach to the "opportunity" talking point
-Take a Ryan-style approach to poverty, like the WSJ op ed
-Actually spend some time talking to them.

We could hit 40% at some point in the not too distant future.

Totally agreed. Basically, do everything different than Romney.
Also, we did reach 40% of Hispanics with Bush in 2004.

Until the housing market imploded, burning Hispanics (the bulk of the new entrants to the dream of home ownership) who buy into real estate at lower levels of income than any other group. Hispanics bought last, bought high, and paid the highest interest rates -- and lost the most.  They turned on the GOP everywhere but Texas (only because Texas has some of the tightest regulation on lenders and real estate in America after an analogous crash in the 1980s). Dubya made real estate a bigger, more open, and more dangerous gamble than anything offered in a casino.

Face it -- a well-run casino encourages people to lose their money slowly while feeling close to being Big Winners so that they can return at the first opportunity. It will be some time before Americans buy into real estate as the solution to all questions of economics.

2004 was before the Great Swindle imploded.