GA Landmark/WSB-TV: Clinton 72 Sanders 20, Trump 32 Rubio 23 Cruz 19

[JonathanSwift]

For the record, Trump is actually at 32% (or 31.7%, to be more precise), not 31%, contrary to what is reported in the article.

[HillOfANight]

Fixed

[Adam Griffin]

I actually just saw a Hillary ad the other day around noon at my work gym She is working to rack up the margins.

Very smart.  Ad spending is most effective when its unopposed.  Sanders is just going to let Clinton walk all over him in the South.

For what it's worth, I checked PoliticalAdSleuth to see the numbers just now (since the announcement was made several days ago but the ads hadn't been purchased yet).

I couple of the FCC links were broken, but from what I could see, approximately $34,000 in airtime has been purchased - almost all of it in the Macon media market - which, save for Atlanta, is the only media market in the state that doesn't have at least one-third to one-half of its audience in other states. That'll get her some exposure in said media market, but...she's not really reaching saturating the state or anything - or even Macon. For her to play in ATL would cost at least ten times that for any sustained period of time.

I would have thought given those petty expenditures, she would have bought at least a few ads in the Chattanooga media market. Probably 80%+ of it covers North Georgia and Southeastern Tennessee and it's a media market 50% larger than Macon's, but there aren't any that I saw.

Georgia's a big state - geographically and otherwise - and making a $34,000 ad buy in a media market that reaches potentially less than 10% of the state's households isn't really anything serious.

[HillOfANight]

It was in Midtown Atlanta, maybe either ESPN or CNN or the local channels (all that the gym plays). If that's not shown in the data, perhaps they don't have the granularity to see as much as they think. I've only seen it once though.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/02/22/hillary-clintons-campaign-features-morgan-freeman-in-new-georgia-ad/

It wasn't this ad that was targeted at the "black belt". It was one that mentioned her reducing nuclear weapons, her healthcare advocacy, etc.

[Mr. Morden]

The poll included 8 black Republicans, and Trump leads this all-important demographic.  No black love for Ben Carson, it seems.

[Adam Griffin]

It was in Midtown Atlanta, maybe either ESPN or CNN or the local channels (all that the gym plays). If that's not shown in the data, perhaps they don't have the granularity to see as much as they think. I've only seen it once though.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/02/22/hillary-clintons-campaign-features-morgan-freeman-in-new-georgia-ad/

It wasn't this ad that was targeted at the "black belt". It was one that mentioned her reducing nuclear weapons, her healthcare advocacy, etc.

A couple of the ones I saw were very small ad buys in ATL for less than $3,000. Such a small buy is probably only going to get you 1 or 2 runs there, so that's probably why you haven't seen it more than once. Like I said, there were 3 broken links (out of about 23) where I couldn't see what was going on. As far as I know, all of their data is aggregated from the FCC on a daily basis - if an ad is bought in the morning, then it's generally on there by evening. The documents I inspected were the actual documents submitted to the FCC and PoliticalAdSleuth links directly to the FCC.gov PDFs. Any airtime they buy has to be submitted, as I understand it.

[IceSpear]

The poll included 8 black Republicans, and Trump leads this all-important demographic.  No black love for Ben Carson, it seems.

Wow! Trump really does have a wonderful relationship with the blacks.

[Mehmentum]

Cool site!  There's an interesting disparity in Virginia.  Clinton is spending a lot, while Sanders is basically silent.

[Ebsy]

Sanders burned a ton of cash on ads in Nevada. I think his resources might be getting a bit thin, and there hasn't been any public bragging about huge fundraising in the wake of the loss in Nevada.

[Bigby]

How the hell is Rubio only 10 points behind Trump here?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sanders burned a ton of cash on ads in Nevada. I think his resources might be getting a bit thin, and there hasn't been any public bragging about huge fundraising in the wake of the loss in Nevada.

Sanders has spent a TON in IA, NH and NV.

[HillOfANight]

Sanders burned a ton of cash on ads in Nevada. I think his resources might be getting a bit thin, and there hasn't been any public bragging about huge fundraising in the wake of the loss in Nevada.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/20/bernie-sanders-is-burning-through-cash/

[HillOfANight]

How the hell is Rubio only 10 points behind Trump here?

Metro Atlanta/Country Club Republicans. Crosstabs show Trump dominating the country, but basically tied with Rubio in Metro ATL.

[Xing]

I highly doubt it will be that bad, but it'll definitely be ugly for Sanders here. Still, losing this state isn't really going to affect Sanders' chances, considering it's one of his worst states.

Really? Getting at least a 50 delegate lead from Georgia alone will be enough to wipe away any delegate lead he gets in the states he wins on Super Tuesday. And then there's Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas.... Louisiana and Mississippi less than a week later...

I'm saying that losing GA by a lot is the expected result for him, and it's not like he'd be doing well in GA even if he were ahead nationally. A huge loss in TX, however, is a different story, since I'd expect him to at least come within 15 points there if he were on par to keep the race competitive.

[Bigby]

How the hell is Rubio only 10 points behind Trump here?

Metro Atlanta/Country Club Republicans. Crosstabs show Trump dominating the country, but basically tied with Rubio in Metro ATL.

Okay, that makes sense. Romney won the Atlanta metro in 2012 despite Gingrich taking most of the remainder.