He hasn't been elected since 1998, so that pretty much makes any home state effect a non-factor. Also, Paul Ryan didn't do much good in flipping Wisconsin, so the idea that the running mate has much of an effect on flipping their own home state is quite faulty.
That said, I hate it when people deny the home state advantage. Is Kasich just so electable he makes Ohio +9% more Republican?
I can almost guarantee you it exists. Examples:
1944: John Bricker(OH)
1952 & 1956: Richard Nixon(CA - lost in 1944, 1948, 1964)
1960: Lyndon Johnson(TX - lost in 1952, 1956)
1968: Edmund Muskie(ME - lost in 1960)
1976: Walter Mondale(MN - +11.5% from 1968)
1980: Walter Mondale(MN - see above)
1980: George Bush(TX - lost in 1968, 1976)
1988: Dan Quayle(IN - Formerly the state of Birch Bayh)
1992: Al Gore(TE - lost in 1976 by Southern Carter)
1996: Al Gore(TE - See above)
2004: John Edwards(NC - +2.0% from 2000)
2008: Sarah Palin(AK - Obama ahead in polling until picked)
2012: Paul Ryan(WI - swung 7% GOP in a year the country swung 2%)
As you can see, the exceptions are as follows:
Gov. Earl Warren
Amb. Lodge
Gov. Agnew
Drtcr. Shriver
Rep. Ferraro
Sen. Bentsen
Rep. Kemp
Rep. Cheney
Sen. Lieberman
Sen. Biden
Biden, Cheney, and Lieberman caused trends in their home state, but not enough to seem abnormal besides what would have been partisan shifting(e. g. 5%). The exceptions were either in a landslide, as in the case of Shriver and Ferraro, when the opposing ticket had someone from the state, as was the case of Bentsen, before 1972, or had never been statewide elected officials.
That said, Ridge has been out of office too long. Maybe Perry or another Representative?
Home-state advantage is really difficult to prove, let alone the extent of it. You need to compare national and regional swings. Did they over-perform in one state over others in the region? Look at Paul Ryan, yes, the swing in WI was almost 7%, but it was 6% in MI, 4% in MN and 12% in IN. The industrial mid-west swung against Obama but he still held them. I would argue there's no real evidence that Ryan's presence meant much.
No doubt parochialism has a role, but I have no doubt that McCain would have won AK, noting that the Palin pick was essentially when Obama was at one of his strongest points.
Oh and Carter won TN in 1976 by 13% - Clinton/Gore won it in by 5% and then 2.5%. In fact, Carter did better in AR in that election than Clinton did in 1992 - 30% margin vs less than 18%
