US House Redistricting: Iowa

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So is it possible to make a State Senate map and a State House map where the median seat voted for Reynolds by the same margin as the state as whole and Hubbell won a percentage of seats equal to his statewide vote share? Bonus points if county splits are kept to the minimum necessary.
Also: does the geography get better for Ds or worse when the districts get bigger?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it even possible to create a map for either state legislative chamber in Iowa with a majority of Clinton districts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the commission could produce something like this:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/3ad4c15b-fadd-4eb7-ae12-70b1ec3ab71c

IA-01 and IA-02 don't change that much. Both of them voted for Trump, the former by about 5 and the latter by about 4. Hinson and Miller-Meeks will start out favored in 2022, but one or both could certainly lose in a blue wave.

IA-03, still centered on Des Moines, becomes a lot bluer at Biden +7, as it loses rural areas and gains Story. This seat is within reach for the GOP in a good year, but Axne should be favored most of the time. Even Hillary won it by 4.

IA-04 is even redder than the current version. Especially with an incumbent who isn't Steve King, this seat will be Safe R for quite some time.

Great map

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried my hand at a fair 4-district map of Iowa.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.77%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

--/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
--/100 on the Compactness Index
100/100 on County Splitting (that's mandatory though)
0/100 on the Minority Representation index (lol)
--/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

For the other indices DRA isn't quite loading right for me.

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Iowa: 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Iowa: 3R to 1D

2018 Iowa Attorney General Election: 4D

2018 Iowa Gubernatorial Election: 3D to 1R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Iowa: 3R to 1D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Iowa: 3R to 1D


Opinions?

I like it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Do we have 2020 census figures per county now?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From the looks of it there are no easy ways to create a compact CD from only Polk County and eight counties around it that also produces very low deviation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From the looks of it there are no easy ways to create a compact CD from only Polk County and eight counties around it that also produces very low deviation.

I've found arrangements with less than 100 deviation. One arrangement that included Polk and Dallas plus counties to the south had a deviation of 11.

Interesting.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's IA with the 2020 data. Probably the most favorable map for the GOP as I separate Johnson and Linn County into different districts to prevent making another toss-up/tilt D district.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c6f2999e-c11b-4e1e-b821-58b8e0f583a8

Most GOP favorable map possible should probably have Iowa City and Des Moines in the same district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this is a fight IA GOPers feel is particularly important to start.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

2018 Governor numbers for all these districts:
IA-01 51-46.9 Dem
IA-02 48.8-48.6 Dem
IA-03 51.2-46.8 Dem
IA-04 59.1-38.8 Rep

2020 Senate:
IA-01 48.9-48 Rep
IA-02 49.9-47.1 Rep
IA-03 48.7-48.3 Rep
IA-04 59.9-36.9 Rep

2016 President:
IA-01 47.9-44.8 Rep
IA-02 48.7-44.1 Rep
IA-03 47.8-44.8 Rep
IA-04 60.2-33.2 Rep

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, can we just be in awe a bit at the deviation they attained? This is what 2020 population figures are, per DRA.
IA-01 797,584   -8
IA-02 797,589   -3
IA-03 797,551   -41
IA-04 797,645   53

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ha that map has dummymander written all over it.

The second map the redistricting agency put out, or the one reagent just posted? Or both?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Y’all do realize that an IA-3 D “vote sink” doenst really do anything to make IA-1 or IA-2 much better for the GOP; it mostly just makes already red IA-4 redder. IA-3 is inevitably going to be a tossup following re districting at best for GOP, because of rules so this really ain’t anymore of a dummymander than a D leaning Des Moine based seat map.

Depends on if it goes east or not. But it's possible to put Iowa City and Des Moines in the same seat, and that would produce a CD that is around 55-56% Dem iirc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what a good 3R-1D map would look like.
DRA link

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Take two.
Turns out it's better to pack the East and crack the West?
https://davesredistricting.org/join/c3aa1309-6f30-4e55-b58f-e992aa22f0ff

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can't say I'm very dissatisfied with how this ended up.