Census population estimates 2011-2019

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Does anyone want to take any guesses as to what the biggest and most surprising differences will be between the 2019 Population Estimates (or the way things are headed based on those) and the 2020 Census Results? Such as perhaps a state with a far higher or lower population than projected in the several hundreds of thousands?

Like happened with Georgia between 2009 and 2010:

At the time of the 2000 Census (April 1, 2010), Georgia had a population of 8,186,453.

The U.S. Census Bureau projected that Georgia had a population of 9,829,211 on July 1, 2009.

The 2010 Census (April 1, 2010) showed that Georgia actually had a population of 9,687,653.

It isn't likely that Georgia actually lost 150,000 people between 2009 and 2010, and when the Census Bureau released its final intercensal tables (showing their population estimates of every state between 2000 and 2010), they estimated Georgia's actual population in 2009 was 9,620,846 (208,365 lower than the initial 2009 estimate released before the census).

What are the chances these estimates turn out to miss the mark by such high amounts?

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Does anyone want to take any guesses as to what the biggest and most surprising differences will be between the 2019 Population Estimates (or the way things are headed based on those) and the 2020 Census Results? Such as perhaps a state with a far higher or lower population than projected in the several hundreds of thousands?

Like happened with Georgia between 2009 and 2010:

At the time of the 2000 Census (April 1, 2010), Georgia had a population of 8,186,453.

The U.S. Census Bureau projected that Georgia had a population of 9,829,211 on July 1, 2019.

The 2010 Census (April 1, 2010) showed that Georgia actually had a population of 9,687,653.

It isn't likely that Georgia actually lost 150,000 people between 2009 and 2010, and when the Census Bureau released its final intercensal tables (showing their population estimates of every state between 2000 and 2010), they estimated Georgia's actual population in 2009 was 9,620,846 (208,365 lower than the initial 2009 estimate released before the census).

What are the chances these estimates turn out to miss the mark by such high amounts?

New York probably will be lower than estimated, due to Covid/rich people filling out the census in the places they fled to.

So our 29th congressional seat is a lock, eh? Maybe even 30th?

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This is also interesting because this is the first time California has ever lost population, having gone down by 69,532 people (between July 01, 2019 and July 01, 2020).

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Texas, Florida, and Arizona all experienced accelerations in their population growth as well, interestingly.

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On a side note, one rank change did occur. Idaho's population surpassed West Virginia's.

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Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

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Do you all think Minnesota has a good chance to regain the seat it lost in 2020 at the time of the 2030 census?

Yes and I also think it'll pass Wisconsin in population so MN will gain back an 8th seat even as WI loses one.

Which states are in most danger of losing seats in 2031 if current growth/loss continues?

New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Connecticut, maybe California.

and a little bit of Alabama too.

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Comparing the beginning of the 2010s with the end

Simple map of the United States by projected population
growth between July 01, 2010 and July 01, 2011

DARK GREEN: States which grew faster than the world average (+1.21%)
GREEN: States which grew faster than the national average (+0.73%)
ORANGE: States which grew slower than the national average (+0.73%)
RED: States which shrank in population

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Simple map of the United States by projected population
growth between July 01, 2019 and July 01, 2020

DARK GREEN: States which grew faster than the world average (+1.05%)
GREEN: States which grew faster than the national average (+0.35%)
ORANGE: States which grew slower than the national average (+0.35%)
RED: States which shrank in population

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According to my calculations

Seat 420 is NY-25
Seat 421 is NC-14
Seat 422 is TX-38
Seat 423 is AZ-10
Seat 424 is CA-51
Seat 425 is WI-8
Seat 426 is CO-8
Seat 427 is PA-17
Seat 428 is OR-6
Seat 429 is NJ-12
Seat 430 is CA-52
Seat 431 is MT-2
Seat 432 is IL-17
Seat 433 is FL-29
Seat 434 is TX-39
Seat 435 is AL-7
----------
Seat 436 is NY-26
Seat 437 is MN-8
Seat 438 is OH-16
Seat 439 is CA-53
Seat 440 is VA-12
Seat 441 is RI-2
Seat 442 is ID-3
Seat 443 is TX-40
Seat 444 is GA-15
Seat 445 is MI-14
Seat 446 is FL-30
Seat 447 is CA-54
Seat 448 is WA-11
Seat 449 is NC-15
Seat 450 is PA-18

Idaho's third district has become a virtual certainty by 2030, and it's actually shockingly close to getting one this cycle!

Only 30k people away from getting a third seat, and this is while it gained an average of 26k people every year this decade, and also gained 35k people every year during the last five years!

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According to my calculations

Seat 420 is NY-25
Seat 421 is NC-14
Seat 422 is TX-38
Seat 423 is AZ-10
Seat 424 is CA-51
Seat 425 is WI-8
Seat 426 is CO-8
Seat 427 is PA-17
Seat 428 is OR-6
Seat 429 is NJ-12
Seat 430 is CA-52
Seat 431 is MT-2
Seat 432 is IL-17
Seat 433 is FL-29
Seat 434 is TX-39
Seat 435 is AL-7
----------
Seat 436 is NY-26
Seat 437 is MN-8
Seat 438 is OH-16
Seat 439 is CA-53
Seat 440 is VA-12
Seat 441 is RI-2
Seat 442 is ID-3
Seat 443 is TX-40
Seat 444 is GA-15
Seat 445 is MI-14
Seat 446 is FL-30
Seat 447 is CA-54
Seat 448 is WA-11
Seat 449 is NC-15
Seat 450 is PA-18

Idaho's third district has become a virtual certainty by 2030, and it's actually shockingly close to getting one this cycle!

Only 30k people away from getting a third seat, and this is while it gained an average of 26k people every year this decade, and also gained 35k people every year during the last five years!

I know, I was pretty shocked too when I realized how close ID had come. If somehow the estimates are way off and ID did pull an upset in 2020 and gain a 3rd seat, that would be pretty epic, though from a political standpoint, that would likely be another GOP seat. By 2030 though, a 3rd district would likely have to be Boise based.

I agree with you in saying that it would definitely be epic. I seriously hope that it happens lol.

While a third Idaho seat likely would be an R seat, are you sure that it wouldn't be Boise-based, though? With the latest estimates, approximately 40% of Idaho's population is in the Boise Metropolitan area. That sounds like more than enough for one district,  isn't it? (If there were three).