Australia General Discussion 2.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think this might be a record swing to a government in a by-election, as well as being pretty high up on the list of largest 2PP swings in a by-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

18.4% Reporting

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'm having to keep reminding myself of the swing here, given that in this NSW parliament we've had 3 by elections in seats held by the Nats, in those seats the Nats have had swings against them of:
21.8% in Orange
19.3% in Marray
Only (!!!) 10.0% in Cootamundra, however it would of been much larger if the SFF had been second instead of Labour the swing would have been far greater

[AustralianSwingVoter]

67/103 booths and 26.24% reporting

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We're now starting to get in the big Town booths from places like Armidale, Glen Innes, Guyra, Inverell and Tenterfield, though still nothing in from Tamworth, which was Tony Windsor's base

[AustralianSwingVoter]

2 Tamworth and 2 Armidale booths in, swing of around 6%, so Barny's swing will decline however there is no chance of a revival for any other candidate

[AustralianSwingVoter]

78/103, 37% reporting. We're getting more of the big booths in.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The AEC should be happy, 13 candidates failing to reach 4% so 13 lost deposits of $1000, or in total $13,000 dollars, or about $9900 US at the current exchange rate.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

with 81/103 booths in Barny's first preference vote is down in only 6.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

All 4 of Tamworth's central booths reporting, showing swings of between 10% and 17% to Barny

[AustralianSwingVoter]

89/103 booths and 45.6% reporting, the reason that the % reporting is so low compared to booths reporting is that around 30% of the vote is pre-poll, which will come in from just 7 booths which we probably won't see results from tonight.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I have no idea what Labor's statement is going to be, they might trumpet their 4% increase in vote share, or increasing their vote by 60% however no matter how you spin it although this is tied with 2013 as their best result since 1998, if the Barny's vote holds up then this will be the Nats best first preference result in this seat since 1966 and their best 2 party or 2 candidate preferred result EVER

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Inverell pre-poll is the only pre-poll currently in.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

94/103 booths (50.4%) reporting 2PP, 95 booths (54.9%) reporting first preferences. The one booth only reporting first preferences in Inverell Pre-Poll, which with around 5,000 votes explains the large difference between the two percentages despite only one booths difference. Only one on the day polling booth hasn't reported, Quirindi which is one of, if not the largest on the day polling booth in the electorate, with around 2,500 votes.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

After Quirindi I don't think we'll get any more results in tonight. The count will continue tomorrow with Pre-Polls and the Hospital votes.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

102/108 booths, 81.17% reporting. All of the Pre-Polls are now in, all that is left now is Hospital, Absent, Provisional, Declaration pre-poll and Postal votes.

[Lachi]

MP Tim Wilson has proposed to his partner on the floor of the House.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-tim-wilson-proposes-to-partner-ryan-bolger-on-the-floor-of-parliament-20171204-gzy2vb.html

[Knives]

It's nice to see something nice come out of this ing awful 45th Parliament.

That being said, for the 3rd time in history and in this term of Parliament a majority government lost a vote on the floor of the HoR over Manus. Timely reminder that as far as we as a society progress internally we have much to be ashamed of internationally.

[Lachi]

The division that legalized same sex marriage in Australia.


Each side of the chamber has a capacity of 90, yet they managed to fit almost all of the 146 voting for it onto one side, WITH VACANT SEATS!!!

Also, Bob Katter has officially became unhinged last night, and continued today...

Last night: https://www.pedestrian.tv/news/bob-katter-same-sex-marriage-speech-house-of-representatives/

Today: https://www.buzzfeed.com/joshtaylor/bob-katter-used-his-15-minutes-on-marriage-equality-to-say?utm_term=.ebWaQrdDw#.qrQ7e4K0a

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-the-other-life-of-annastacia-palaszczuk/news-story/ac8a5a75b3f35e9954b4ef517a7fd156
Hard to imagine this was just a few years ago.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Quite embarrassingly I've completely forgotten about the Bennelong by-election. John Alexander is back in, with a 5.6% swing against him. Kristina Keneally has conceded, and I'm 95% sure that she'll be appointed to replace Sam Dastyari in the Senate.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Only one Pre-Poll left to report tonight, the BLV (Blind and Low Vision) Pre-Poll. Hospital Teams will come in in a few days time, however the winner isn't in doubt.

[Lachi]

Newspoll, SA election 2018.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/12/19/newspoll-sa-best-32-liberal-29-labor-27-south-australia/

PRIMARY VOTE:
SA-BEST: 32%
Labor: 29%
Liberal: 27%

2PP: UNCALCULATABLE

PREFERRED PREMIER:
Nick Xenophon: 46%
Jay Weatherill: 22% (INC. PREMIER)
Steven Marshall: 19%

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Newspoll, SA election 2018.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/12/19/newspoll-sa-best-32-liberal-29-labor-27-south-australia/

PRIMARY VOTE:
SA-BEST: 32%
Labor: 29%
Liberal: 27%

2PP: UNCALCULATABLE

PREFERRED PREMIER:
Nick Xenophon: 46%
Jay Weatherill: 22% (INC. PREMIER)
Steven Marshall: 19%

I simply cannot wait for the SA election, it's going to be completely mad. It's just like how if NXT had just got a few more percentage points in a good few SA seats in 2016 (enough to get to 2nd) they would of won a good deal more.
The map is going to be mad, I think the NXT will win a few unlikely seats which are currently marginal on Penultimate count numbers along the line of 35-33 (NXT)-32. Preferences are going to be key just about everywhere, and we know from 2016 and before that Lib preferences favour NXT about 60-40, Labor preferences favour NXT 75-25, and NXT preferences are all over the place, though usually favouring Labor.
On my numbers these seats are:
Barker - Lib beat the NXT 55-45
Boothby - 5.1% margin between Labor and NXT on the sixth count, when NXT was eliminated, NXT would of certainly beat the Libs given their preference flow statewide.
Grey - Lib beat the NXT 52-48, and the Labor preference flow to the NXT was 5 points less than average.
Sturt - On the fifth count, were NXT were excluded, NXT were only 1.5% behind Labor candidate, and although it would have been a lot closer Pyne already had 47.2% of the vote and Labor's preference flow to NXT would of had to be around 90%, beyond even Green to Labor levels.
Wakefield - On the Fifth count the Libs were ahead of NXT by 4.2%, and given that NXT preferences favoured Labor 64-36, no doubt it would of been much closer than 61-39 in real life. NXT wouldn't win, unless Liberal preferences favoured them around 80-20.

[MaxQue]

Wierd, if I was South Australian, I would preference both Labor and Liberals before Xenophon. He's a phony populist who bans to ban everything.