South African local government elections - August 3, 2016

[ag]

Ekurhuleni (East Rand) ANC loss to NOC

ANC 48.64% (-12.99) 109 seats (-14)
DA 33.65% (+3.36) 77 seats (+15)
EFF 11.23% (+11.23) 25 seats (+25)
AIC 1.64% (+1.64) 4 seats (+4)
IFP 1.02% (-0.08) 2 seats (nil)
VF+ 0.89% (+0.34) 2 seats (+1)
ACDP 0.43% (-0.20) 1 seat (nil)
PAC 0.42% (-0.26) 1 seat (-1)
PA 0.27% (+0.27) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.26% (-0.68) 1 seat (-1)
IRASA 0.24% (-0.31) 1 seat (nil)

NFP lost 3 seats, APC and DRPA lost one seat each, all got eliminated.

[ag]

eThekwini (Durban) ANC hold

ANC 56.01% (-5.06) 126 seats (nil)
DA 26.66% (+5.64) 61 seats (+18)
IFP 4.2% (+0.07) 10 seats (+1)
EFF 3.44% (+3.44) 8 seats (+8)
AIC 1.37% (+1.37) 3 seats (+3)
ACDP 0.54% (-0.20) 1 seat (-1)
MF 0.53% (-4.78) 1 seat (-10)
DLC 0.52% (+0.52) 1 seat (+1)
TA 0.41% (-0.31%) 1 seat (nil)
MOSA 0.31% (+0.31) 1 seat (+1)
APC 0.21% (-0.09) 1 seat (nil)
ALJAMA 0.19% (+0.19) 1 seat (+1)
Independents 4.2%, 4 seats (+3)

NFP lost 10 seats, COPE lost 1 seat, both got eliminated.

[ag]

Mangaung (Bloemfontein) ANC hold

ANC 56.52% (-9.75) 58 seats (-7)
DA 25.96% (-1.15) 27 seats (+1)
EFF 8.66 (+8.66) 9 seats  (+9)
VF+ 1.92 (+0.41) 2 seats (nil)
AIC 1.69% (+1.69) 2 seats (+1)
ANA 0.89% (+0.89) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.60% (-2.56%) 1 seat (-2)

APC lost its only seat

Is the DA decline there just because of the merger?

[ag]

Buffalo (East London) ANC hold

ANC 58.74% (-11.27) 60 seats (-11)
DA 23.40% (+2.92) 24 seats (+3)
EFF 7.97% (+7.97) 8 seats (+8)
AIC 3.42% (+3.42) 4 seats (+2)?
PAC 0.90% (-0.99) 1 seat (-1)
UDM 0.87% (+0.24) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.86% (-2.00) 1 seat (-2)
ACDP 0.55% (-0.20) 1 seat (nil)

[Kosmos]

Mangaung (Bloemfontein) ANC hold

ANC 56.52% (-9.75) 58 seats (-7)
DA 25.96% (-1.15) 27 seats (+1)
EFF 8.66 (+8.66) 9 seats  (+9)
VF+ 1.92 (+0.41) 2 seats (nil)
AIC 1.69% (+1.69) 2 seats (+1)
ANA 0.89% (+0.89) 1 seat (+1)
COPE 0.60% (-2.56%) 1 seat (-2)

APC lost its only seat

Is the DA decline there just because of the merger?

Apparantly not entirely. I added the Mangaung and Naledi results from 2011 together and DA ended up at 26,75%. So that is still a drop of -0.79%.

It should be mentioned that DA essentially stood still at 20% in the Free State as a whole, while earning a lower voter share than last time in Mpumalanga and North West. Of course, part of that is explained by VF+ picking up a little support, and they did well in parts of rural KZN, EC and Limpopo.

But overall speaking DA did not do too well in the rural areas. Not even with the rural coloured voters in the Northern Cape. Is this because they focused so heavily on the GP and PE metros, or would they have done badly regardless?

[ag]

So, I think it would be interesting to catalog municipalities that are not in ANC hands at this point (DA, IFP, or NOC). Most, of course, are in WC, but there are some elsewhere.

Western Cape: here ANC now controls nothing.

Besides the Cape Town (DA hold with supermajority) we have:

Matzikama: DA gain from NOC: DA 8, ANC 5, UD 1, EFF 1
Cederberg: DA gain from NOC: DA 6, ANC 4, ADC 1
Bergrivier: DA hold: DA 9, ANC 4
Witzenberg: NOC hold: DA 11, ANC 8, WP 1, ICOSA 1, EFF 1, COPE 1
Saldanha Bay: DA hold: DA 17, ANC 8, EFF 1, SRA-SIA 1
Swartland: DA hold: DA 16, ANC 6, EFF 1
Drakenstein: DA hold: DA 43, ANC 15, EFF 2, PDM 1, ACDP 1, FD 1, ICOSA 1, VF+ 1
Stellenbosch: DA hold: DA 30, ANC 8, EFF 2, DNCA 1, PDM 1, ACDP 1
Breede Valley: DA hold: DA 22, ANC 12, BO 4, EFF 1, VF+ 1, PDM 1
Theewaterskloof: DA hold: DA 14, ANC 10, UFEC 1, EFF 1, ICOSA 1
Overstrand: DA hold: DA 16, ANC 8, EFF 1
Cape Agulhas: DA gain from NOC: DA 6, ANC 3, DLRP 1, KAPCO 1
Swellendam: DA gain from NOC: DA 6, ANC 5
Langeberg: DA gain from NOC: DA 12, ANC 6, PDM 1, COPE 1, LIP 1, ICOSA 1, EFF 1
Hessequa: NOC hold: ANC 8, DA 8, VF+ 1
Kannaland: NOC hold: ICOSA 3, DA 2, ANC 2
Laingsburg: NOC hold: ANC 3, DA 3, KOP 1
Beafort West: NOC gain from ANC: DA 6, ANC 6, KDF 1
Prince Albert: NOC hold: DA 3, KGP 2, ANC 2
Oudshoorn: DA gain from NOC: DA 14, ANC 7, ICOSA 2, SARCO 1, EFF 1
Mossel Bay: DA hold: DA 17, ANC 7, ICOSA 1, VF+1, ACDP 1
George: DA hold: DA 29, ANC 16, PBI 2, EFF 1, ICOSA 1, VF+ 1, ACDP 1, AIC 1, SAC 1
Knysna: NOC gain from DA: DA 10, ANC 7, COPE 1, KUC 1, ACDP 1, Independent 1
Bitou: NOC hold: DA 6, ANC 6, AUF 1

[ag]

Eastern Cape:

Besides the Nelson Mandela Bay metro (NOC gain from ANC), there is also

Kouga: DA gain from ANC: DA 17, ANC 12

Northern Cape:

Kgatelopele: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 3, DA 2, KCF 2
Nama Khoi: NOC hold: ANC 8, DA 7, KSR 1, COPE 1
Ubuntu: NOC hold: ANC 3, DA 2, Independent 2

Northwest:

Rustenburg: NOC gain from ANC : ANC 43, EFF 24, DA 14, F4SD 4, AIC 1, VF+1, UDM 1, BCM 1

Free State:

Metsimaholo: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 19, DA 12, EFF 8, MCA 2, VF+1

Gauteng:

Besides the three metros Tshwane (NOC gain from ANC), Johannesburg (NOC gain from ANC) and Ekurhuleni (NOC gain from ANC) there are also:

Midvaal: DA hold: DA 17, ANC 9, EFF 2, VF+1
Mogale City: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 38, DA 27, EFF 9, VF+ 2, IFP 1

Limpopo

Thabazimbi: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 10, EFF 5, DA 5, TRA 2, VF+ 1
Modimolle/Mookgopong: NOC gain from ANC: ANC 13, DA 7, EFF 6, VF+ 2

[ag]

This leaves us KwaZulu-Natal

Jozini: NOC hold: ANC 19, IFP 18, EFF 1, DA 1, Independent 1
Nongoma: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 22, ANC 13, DA 5, EFF 2
Hluhluwe/Somkele: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 13, ANC 11, DA 1
Mtubatuba: NOC hold: IFP 18, ANC 18, DA 2, EFF 1, AIC 1
eDumbe: NOC gain from NFP: ANC 8, DA 5, IFP 3
Abaqulusi: NOC hold: ANC 21, IFP 19, DA 3, EFF 1
Ulundi: IFP hold: IFP 35, ANC 11, EFF 1
Mthonjaneni: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 14, ANC 10, EFF 1
Nquthu: NOC hold: IFP 15, ANC 14, NFP 2, EFF 1, DA 1
Nkandla: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 15, ANC 12
Msinga: IFP hold IFP 24, ANC 12
Endumeni: NOC hold ANC 6, IFP 4, DA 2, EFF 1
Estcourt/Loskop: NOC hold ANC 23, IFP 18, DA 2, ALJAMA 2, EFF 1

[Kosmos]

This leaves us KwaZulu-Natal

Jozini: NOC hold: ANC 19, IFP 18, EFF 1, DA 1, Independent 1
Nongoma: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 22, ANC 13, DA 5, EFF 2
Hluhluwe/Somkele: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 13, ANC 11, DA 1
Mtubatuba: NOC hold: IFP 18, ANC 18, DA 2, EFF 1, AIC 1
eDumbe: NOC gain from NFP: ANC 8, DA 5, IFP 3
Abaqulusi: NOC hold: ANC 21, IFP 19, DA 3, EFF 1
Ulundi: IFP hold: IFP 35, ANC 11, EFF 1
Mthonjaneni: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 14, ANC 10, EFF 1
Nquthu: NOC hold: IFP 15, ANC 14, NFP 2, EFF 1, DA 1
Nkandla: IFP gain from NOC: IFP 15, ANC 12
Msinga: IFP hold IFP 24, ANC 12
Endumeni: NOC hold ANC 6, IFP 4, DA 2, EFF 1
Estcourt/Loskop: NOC hold ANC 23, IFP 18, DA 2, ALJAMA 2, EFF 1

Surpringly many hung municipalities in KZN (7, by my count), considering that NFP did not contest the elections (except in Nquthu). It seems both the DA and EFF could position themselves as kingmakers in several of them.

[Vosem]

So, some newspapers have speculated that DA and EFF may choose to align, especially in Gauteng. Thoughts on the likelihood of this? Is it likely to go poorly and backfire on the opposition parties?

[ag]

So, some newspapers have speculated that DA and EFF may choose to align, especially in Gauteng. Thoughts on the likelihood of this? Is it likely to go poorly and backfire on the opposition parties?

They seem to be talking.

And ANC is discussing "reforming" the proportional representation.

[ag]

Apparently, Tshwane municipal employees are all extremely nervous - in expectation of a wholesale purge by the new DA administration. At the very least (whether DA has any intention of doing any purge or not), it seems that a DA-led administration in Tshwane is viewed very likely.

[ag]

First coalition deals about to be announced. So far, it is in the WC, where DA has got coalition partners to form non-ANC administrations where it did not get a majority outright.

In Prince Albert it will be a KGP-DA administration (with a KGP mayor) and in Laingsburg DA will support a KOP member for mayor. KDF, KGP, KOP and DA will co-govern Central Karoo district municipality (with KDF getting the mayoralty). In exchange, DA gets to appoint the mayor in previously ANC-governed Beaufort West (with KDF support).

ANC one coalition-building success in WC so far is a tentative agreement with AUF to govern Bitou.

[ag]

DA and EFF, apparently, are negotiating a package deal - whether it works, is not clear. DA is offering EFF to support its governments in the Limpopo municipalities of Modimolle and Thabazimbi (though both would require support of minor parties, including VF+!).  It also is offering EFF appointments in mayoral committees in Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni. Hard to say if any of this would lead anywhere. EFF, however, have "ruled out" ANC deals.

Of course, DA does not need EFF to govern Nelson Mandela Bay. The rumor is, UDM (2 seats) has agreed to go into the DA-led coalition, so it requires only 2 more minor parties with 1 member each to get to the majority.

[ag]

In a shocker, it seems, DA and ANC have agreed to co-govern Kannaland (with the mayoralty going to ANC!) ICOSA got 48% of the vote there and 3 out of 7 seats on the council.

[ag]

So, here are the 10 non-WC municipalities where DA got the highest vote share. Perhaps, somebody could explain what these are?

1. Midvaal, Gauteng. DA 59.7%. Has a large white population (38.7% - blacks are 58.4%, so a good share of them voted DA). Most common languages are Afrikaans (30.9%), Sotho (27.9%), English (14%) and Zulu (11.8%)

2. Kouga, Eastern Cape. DA 56.49%. A largely coloured suburb of Port Elizabeth.  Coloured 42.6%, black 38.8%, white 17.6%. Very Afrikaans - 59.4%. Also Xhosa (30.5%) and English (6.5%) are spoken.

3. Nelson Mandela Bay, Eastern Cape. DA 46.71%. Port Elizabeth itself. Blacks are 60.1% here - so DA did get a chunk of that vote for sure. The rest is mostly coloured (23.6%) or white (14.1%). Common languages are Xhosa (53.9%), Afrikaans (29.3%) and English (13.5%).

4. Camdeboo, Eastern Cape (I guess, this is now the larger Dr Beyers Naudé municipality, so demographics are given for it). DA 46.59%. Very coloured (66.9%) and Afrikaans (80.3%). Blacks are 23.6% whites only 8.7%. 14.8% speak Xhosa and only 3.2% speak English.

5. Richtersveld, Northern Cape. DA 46.28%. On the border with Namibia. Even more colored (76.6%) and Afrikaans (87%). The rest is mostly black (13.1%) and Xhosa (6.1%), but not much of either.

6. Kou-Kamma, Eastern Cape. DA 43.66%. On the border with WC. Again, mostly coloured (59.8%) and Afrikaans (73.8%). Somewhat more blacks (30.6%) and Xhosa (19.9%) than above, but not much.

7. Tshwane, Gauteng.  DA 43.15%. Pretoria. Overwhelmingly black (75.4%), most of the remainder white (20.1%). Linguistically split, with 19.9% speaking Northern Sotho, 18.8% Afrikaans, 15% Tswana 8.6% Tsonga and the remaining 37% any number of the other South African tongues. You cannot blame this one on the coloureds: urban black vote is clearly defecting here, as it does in PE.

8. Renosterberg, Northern Cape. DA 41.74%. Another mostly coloured (57.4%) and Afrikaans (71.4%) place. Blacks are 32.9% and Xhosa is spoken by 24%.

9. uMngeni, KwaZulu-Natal.  DA 41.12%. Shockingly a black (75%) Zulu (64.3%) place that sent its anti-ANC vote to DA, not toIFP. 19.4% of the population is white and full 25.5% speaks English. But, still... Can somebody explain?

10. Nama Khoi, Northern Cape. DA 41.01%. Another overwhelmingly coloured (88.1%) Afrikaans (95.9%) place on the Namibian border. No other group makes any significant numbers here.

In every other place DA is under 40%.

[ag]

As for the worst municipalities, DA is under 2% in 10 of these. 9 worst ones are in KwaZulu/Natal (many of them are IFP strongholds, including Ulundi - and even in the rest IFP is the main opposition) and the remaining one (Engcobo) is in the former Transkei part of the Eastern Cape (the largest non-ANC party here is, actually, UDM). No real surprizes here. In none of these did EFF get even to 4%, so that is not where the opposition vote goes in such places.

[ag]

The 10 best municiaplities for EFF are

1. Polokwane, Limpopo (28.21%)
2. Rustenburg, Northwest (26.76%)
3. Lepele-Nkumpi, Limpopo (24.2%)
4. Makhuduthamanga, Limpopo (21.73%)
5. Moses Kotane, Northwest (20.99%)
6. Molemole, Limpopo (20.82%)
7. Nala, Free State (20.26%)
8. Thabazimbi, Limpopo (20.24%)
9. Joe Morolong, Northern Cape (19.87%)
10. Mogalakwena, Limpopo (19.84%)


In 8 municipalities EFF got under 1% of the vote. 5 of these are in WC, in some cases  places with strong local parties in addition to DA (Hessequa, Laingsburg, Prince Albert, Cederberg and Swellendam). Kouga is the DA stronghold in EC. And the KwaZulu municipalities of Msinga and Nkandla have IFP majorities.

[ag]

ANC is still untouchable in many places in the former homelands. Its 10 strongest municipalities are overwhelming.

1. Impendle, KwaZulu/Natal (89.4%)
2. Umzimkulu, KwaZulu/Natal (86.22%)
3. Ntabankulu, Eastern Cape (85.11)
4. Ngqushwa, Eastern Cape (84.4%)
5. something listed by the electoral commission as a "New Municipality" in Limpopo (84.14%)
6. Elundini, Eastern Cape (83.79%)
7. Nyandeni, Eastern Cape (83.59%)
8. Chief Albert Luthuli, Mpumalanga (83.49%)
9. Ngquiza Hill, Eastern Cape (83.49%)
10. Engcobo, Eastern Cape (83.3%)

Of the 10 worst ANC places 9 are in WC, and the remaining 1 is Ulundi in Kwazulu - no surprizes at all. These are

1. Stellenbosch, WC (19.66%)
2. Kannaland, WC (21.51%) - still more surprizing that this will be the 1 place they rule in WC!
3. Ulundi, KZN (23.2%)
4. Drakenstein, WC (23.59%)
5. Swartland, WC (23.86%)
6. Cape Town, WC (24.12%)
7. Matzikama, WC (26.22%)
8. Langeberg (26.31%)
9. Mossel Bay (26.43%)
10. Oudtshoorn (27.18%)

Ignoring WC, the 10 worst ANC places are

1. Ulundi, KZN (23.2%)
2. Nongoma, KZN (30.84%)
3. Msinga, KZN (31.87%)
4. Midvaal, Gauteng (32.08%)
5. Kouga, EC (40.57%)
6. Nelson Mandela Bay, EC (40.92%)
7. Mthonjaneni, KZN (40.94%)
8. Tshwane, Gauteng (41.25%)
9. Nqutu, KZN (42.02%)
10. Ubuntu, NC (42.04%)

[ag]

Coalition negotiations are about to be resolved.

At 12 noon South African time EFF holds its press-conference
AT 2:30 PM it is the DA national leadership turn.
At 3:30 PM the DA candidate in NMB will be making his own announcement.

No word, yet, from ANC.

[ag]

It is out!

DA forms a general coalition with UDM, COPE, ACDP and VF+. This gives them a majority coalition in NMB. EFF will not join, but will, for the moment, give outside support to DA governments in NMB, Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni (possibly elsewhere as well). This means DA mayors in the Gauteng metros. EFF leader calls DA the "better devil".

No agreements with IFP but both EFF and the DA-led coalition pledge outside support to it in KZN.

[ag]

National DA leadership renounces the DA/ANC deal in Kannaland as unauthorized. Local DA leaders will be punished.

IFP announces that it will vote together with the DA-led combine in both KZN and Gauteng.

ANC cancels its press-conference in NMB.

[ag]

So, the NOC metro governments, it seems, will be:

NMB : majority DA+ (61). Outside EFF support (6). Opposition ANC+ (53).

Tshwane: minority DA+ (96). Outside EFF support (25). Opposition ANC+ (90)

Johannesburg: minority DA+ (108). Outside EFF/IFP support (35). Opposition ANC+ (127)

Ekurhuleni: minority DA+ (81). Outside EFF/IFP support (27). Opposition ANC+ (116).

[ag]

In any case, even ignoring the outside support pledges, a four NOC municipalities will be majority controlled by the DA/UDM/COPE/ACDP/VF+ combine.

These are

Witzenberg, WC (DA 11+COPE 1 against 11 for the rest)
Hessequa, WC (DA 8 + VF+ 1 against 8 for ANC)
Knysna, WC (DA 10 + COPE 1 + ACDP 1 against 9 for the rest)
Nelson Mandela Bay, EC (DA 57+UDM 2 + COPE 1 + ACDP 1 against 59 for the rest)

[Vosem]

So the EFF will presumably be able to form a minority administration in Rustenburg? Also seems like rather significant news.