What are the chances of the 2024 map being identical to 2016?
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Author Topic: What are the chances of the 2024 map being identical to 2016?  (Read 180 times)
iceman
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« on: May 03, 2024, 02:52:30 AM »
Is it possible for Trump to win the same states he did in 2016?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2024, 02:54:25 AM »
Its possible but Nevada complicates that.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2024, 05:02:00 AM »
Unlikely IMO because AZ is trending left while NV (somehow) is trending right
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2024, 04:13:14 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2024, 06:40:15 PM by Progressive Pessimist »
If Trump wins, that map plus Nevada (minus NE-2) is probably his ceiling and the closest thing he can have to a landslide. Soz in essence, it's very unlikely due to NE-2 alone.
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seskoog
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2024, 04:53:04 PM »
Very low, although it's actually fairly plausible if one switched NV with AZ
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