Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"Russia is not winning" - 3/4 of the city is in Russian hands now.

Forgot that "who's winning the war" is determined by who holds the most of Ukrainian Schenectady.

[lfromnj]

Its probably not the FSB because the FSB would have had more collateral damage.

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Russia is not winning" - 3/4 of the city is in Russian hands now.

Forgot that "who's winning the war" is determined by who holds the most of Ukrainian Schenectady.

Also holding “3/4” of a city is not even winning the battle as the Germans who held 90% of Stalingrad can attest to

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

In response to your post in general, I think Winnie the Pooh will not be upset at all if something happens to the Putin regime or Russia. I think there is nothing more profitable for him than using Russia as a kamikaze in a nuclear war against the United States. Or at least to use Russia for blackmail: peace in Europe in exchange for the annexation of Taiwan.

Oh no, I disagree with this. The events of 1989-91 shook the CCP to the core. It just so happens that the people who were in their political formative years back then are now in the halls of power, including Winnie himself. For the same thing to happen again 30 years later, but in a much more dramatic fashion (i.e. the west destroyed Russia by using a smaller part of Russia to wage a proxy war), would re-traumatize them. It would shatter the domestic political narrative. Again, I don't think this will be fatal to Xi or the CCP, but it's not something they want.

Then there's the question: to what extent could China really help Russia in its war, especially if it's failing? Suppose say that Winnie agrees to send a million artillery shells to Russia. He can easily order this. Then, the shells are loaded onto a train heading north. The train arrives at Irkutsk, where the local army commander demands that 100,000 shells be offloaded in order to boost up the nation's strategic reserves. Then, the train moves on to Krasnoyarsk, where the local army commander makes the same demand. Then Novosibirsk, Omsk, etc, etc. By the time the train arrives in eastern Ukraine, there are only 200,000 shells left. That might be enough to bombard another Ukrainian city and capture its ruins. But, Russia itself will be on the brink of a civil war.

And, even if Winnie were to openly use Russia as a blackmail to get his way elsewhere, that will only embolden the western powers into taking the gloves off. Murmurs among the Republican Party that too much aid is going to Ukraine will vanish. The Ukrainians are preparing to receive M1A tanks - just a token few dozen for now, but the US can easily send hundreds it has in storage. F-16s are also coming, sooner or later. After that, it won't even be funny. One of the events in the period between 1989-91 that shocked the CCP was the Gulf War: Iraq's army was very similar to China's army in terms of equipment and training, and to see it annihilated within days was deeply shocking in Beijing.

You repeat the same esoteric. To use the word shock in this context is ridiculous. The collapse of the USSR was a consequence of the fact that for decades the spring of nationalism of the Soviet peoples was held back, especially nationalism was overripe among Russians and Ukrainians. Now both the Chinese state and the Russian state are nationalist, they are in complete harmony with the nationalism of their main ethnic groups, and a tiny number of real liberals are excluded by all means from influencing politics. Absolutely nothing threatens either Vinnie's regime or Piglet's regime. This field has been cleared.

Second, I don't see why China might not want to supply the Russian army, because China has been supplying the Russian army for a long time, both itself and through its satellites. The West turns a blind eye to this, because the Western and not only the Western economy is tightly tied to China.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Is there even popular support within Russia for this invasion/annexation anymore?

That part of the youth that grew up in world culture is against this war, but has no way to influence the bunker tsar and therefore keeps their mouths shut. The thinking of the rest of the categories of the population has been completely destroyed by the special military propaganda of the Russian and Soviet media, and therefore they support absolutely any step of Putin.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1642584328348549127?s=20

https://twitter.com/brianjliston/status/1642592088532434944?s=20

[Storr]

If I was Igor Girkin I would be sh**ting bricks right now.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1642581752995631104?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1642491090392748032?s=20

Afterwards, a large crowd gathered in front of the church protesting in support of the soldier.

For Clarification the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) is the church subordinate to and a part of the the Russian Orthodox Church, while the Orthodox Church of Ukraine is pro-government and independent from the ROC.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1642579888623198209?s=20

I assume in order to placate local public opinion, the church where the incident occurred decided to do this:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1642607524003078145?s=20

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

There are potential nine camps here, right?

(1) Russia is winning, wants Russia to win
(2) Russia is winning, ambivalent
(3) Russia is winning, wants Ukraine to win
(4) Stalemate, wants Russia to win
(5) Stalemate, ambivalent
(6) Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win
(7) Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win
( Ukraine is winning, ambivalent
(9) Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win

Are we saying that Woodbury, Jaichind, and this global south guy are necessarily in camp 1?

Far more than that. Just for example:

Russia is winning, but needs to win much harder and faster.
Russia is winning, but the cost is Pyrrhic, which is good. 
Russia is winning, but the cost is Pyrrhic, which is bad.

Stalemate, wants war to continue until both sides are broken.
Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win, and move hard right (which likely won't happen if war ends too soon).

Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win, but only in a way that produces regime change in Russia.
Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win, but also wants Russia to collapse and break up, which will only happen with far more stress on the Russian state.

[BG-NY]

There are potential nine camps here, right?

(1) Russia is winning, wants Russia to win
(2) Russia is winning, ambivalent
(3) Russia is winning, wants Ukraine to win
(4) Stalemate, wants Russia to win
(5) Stalemate, ambivalent
(6) Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win
(7) Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win
( Ukraine is winning, ambivalent
(9) Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win

Are we saying that Woodbury, Jaichind, and this global south guy are necessarily in camp 1?

Far more than that. Just for example:

Russia is winning, but needs to win much harder and faster.
Russia is winning, but the cost is Pyrrhic, which is good. 
Russia is winning, but the cost is Pyrrhic, which is bad.

Stalemate, wants war to continue until both sides are broken.
Stalemate, wants Ukraine to win, and move hard right (which likely won't happen if war ends too soon).

Ukraine is winning, wants Russia to win, but only in a way that produces regime change in Russia.
Ukraine is winning, wants Ukraine to win, but also wants Russia to collapse and break up, which will only happen with far more stress on the Russian state.

I personally think it’s a stalemate, and want Russia to leave the war zone.

[vitoNova]

This is the woman who brought the bomb to the Cafe. She and her husband are still at large. St. Pete is about an hour away from the border so if they are smart, they would be in Finland or Estonia by now.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1642623933483556864

I was never really into Eastern Euro/Slavic chicks.

But damn. 

This one....100% wood/would.

[Woody]

Russians tricking Ukrainian pilots into death traps

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/02/ukraine-fighter-jets-f-16-russia-setting-traps/

Good article. Explains pretty much the increase in Russian aviation raids/guided precision bombs. This along with decrease of old Soviet surface-to-air defense complicates Ukraine's standing in the air war.

Major Vadym Voroshylov has told how every day it is becoming harder to keep the Russians at bay using outdated Soviet aircraft as he pleaded for the West to send F-16 fighter jets.

Major Voroshylov, who in a rare break from the front line met with The Telegraph, warned: “The Russians change tactics all the time, so the war isn’t stable. They make traps. They will send up a Russian jet alone, tricking the Ukrainian pilot into thinking there is only one jet. Then, two or three more will appear either side of it, effectively swarming the Ukrainian aircraft.”

As Ukrainian pilots continue to fly Soviet-era MiG-29s, he stressed they can do no more than “hold the battlefield”. Wiping out the Russians, who fly the Sukhoi Su-35s modern air superiority fighter jets and Su-34 bombers, has proved difficult.

The Su-35 is an upgrade on the SU-27. It is highly manoeuvrable with a high angle of attack and is well adapted to dogfighting. The aircraft have large and powerful engines and can be armed with a range of guided bombs.

[Woody]

Another AFU commander was killed in Bakhmut recently, of the Sheikh Mansur Battalion.

https://proukraine.news/en/news/personi/military-diu-officer-makhno-died-in-fierce-battles-near-bakhmut-what-is-known-about-him-938.html

[Woody]

This is the woman who brought the bomb to the Cafe. She and her husband are still at large. St. Pete is about an hour away from the border so if they are smart, they would be in Finland or Estonia by now.

She has been detained. Husband is still at large.

https://twitter.com/sumnjam/status/1642866788902772736

[Antonio the Sixth]

snip

I'm honestly surprised that the UOC wasn't just banned after the invasion. Sure, it would have been an "authoritarian" move, but no more so than banning pro-Russian parties as was done fairly early, and both seem to present serious security risks in wartime that fully justify a limitation on civil liberties.

[Logical]

Looking at how opulent the Eastern Orthodox clergy lives makes me appreciate the Catholic way of celibacy and simplicity more.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1642262759294267393?s=20

Nothing says "winning this war" like relying on ammunition manufactured before the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Meanwhile, the mighty Russian military, the second most powerful military in the world, is using the ancient T-12 100 mm anti-tank guns, so what's your point?

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-russian-invaders-start-receiving-t-12-anti-tank-guns/

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1642491090392748032?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1642891099193704448
So Russia really wants to set itself up for a Operation Uranus style counter attack?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I know this is war, but the suicide bombing of the Kerch Bridge, and the bombing of a cafe seems a lot like Al-Qaeda style tactics. It will do more harm than good for the Ukrainian cause.

To my knowledge, the Kerch bridge hasn't actually been confirmed as a suicide bombing, and even if it were these events could very well be described as "French Resistance-style" or "Yugoslav Partisan-style" tactics from WWII. Probably more so since Kerch or the cafe bombing weren't actually designed to maximize civilian casualties and spread terror as al-Qaeda usually does. Your comparison with al-Qaeda is hence factually incorrect, but it does further underline the widespread suspicion that you are pro-Putin poster.

[Cassius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1642891099193704448
So Russia really wants to set itself up for a Operation Uranus style counter attack?

Whilst a counteroffensive directed against the Russian forces in and around Bakhmut is probably one of the easier options for the AFU (certainly easier than the charge across the steppe towards Melitopol/Mariupol or crossing to the left bank of the Dnieper), I think you underestimate just how many men and how much materiel that Ukraine would require to conduct a counteroffensive on the scale of Operation Uranus (or at least one that would achieve similar results).

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1642891099193704448
So Russia really wants to set itself up for a Operation Uranus style counter attack?

Whilst a counteroffensive directed against the Russian forces in and around Bakhmut is probably one of the easier options for the AFU (certainly easier than the charge across the steppe towards Melitopol/Mariupol or crossing to the left bank of the Dnieper), I think you underestimate just how many men and how much materiel that Ukraine would require to conduct a counteroffensive on the scale of Operation Uranus (or at least one that would achieve similar results).

Oh no I do, I actually don’t think Ukraine will even try to counterattack around Bakmut as opposed to having their counterattack wherever it is either force Russia to divert their resources away from Bakmut to shore up defenses elsewhere or Russia stays in Bakmut and doesn’t send those resources elsewhere and helps the Ukrainian counterattack. I was more commenting on the irony of Russia’s tactics here

[Storr]

Anyone else want to tune into 103.2 FM?

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1642796580796243968?s=20

[Storr]

Built by American company Navistar International. It's impressive if it was able to protect its occupants from a hit from a tank and an ATGM:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1642961703036919830?s=20

[pppolitics]

I don't understand why the US isn't training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 right now.

If it turns out down the road that the F-16 aren't needed, no harm is done.