2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Remind me to never let my kids go to University of Montana

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Her money would be better spent trying to get one of the women in SC-1 and OK-5 through the primary.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Her money would be better spent trying to get one of the women in SC-1 and OK-5 through the primary.

Women will win both of those races anyway, and it is not clear yet who the best candidate is in each race (although both are certainly women).

Can you tell me what stocks are going to be up tomorrow while you’re at it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

WHAT!?! Trump is more unpopular in all the competitive Texas seats than he is in IA-2? This can’t be.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

WHAT!?! Trump is more unpopular in all the competitive Texas seats than he is in IA-2? This can’t be.

Didn't you learn your lesson already from KY?

Yes clearly the lesson to be learned from KY is that the urban-rural trends are going to recede, and this race was in no way an special case

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195345051808870401
What?
A state senator survived in a clinton plus 2 district from this area so Wasserman moves it left?
A nearby delegate survives by 10 points in a clinton plus 5 district?
I'm not gonna complain about it being lean d. I call it tossup and tilt d. The problem is thinking Democrats did good in 2019 in Virginia

I can understand the argument for why it’s Lean D, but yeah, the 2019 results have nothing to do with that.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Maybe Virginia Democrats can do some emergency redistricting and nip that in the bud

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

New internals from the Congressional Leadership Fund, conducted by Remington.


TX-10:
McCaul 50
Hutcheson 41
Undecided 9

PA-01:
Fitzpatrick 50
Wachspress 36
Undecided 14

That’s a pretty bad internal for McCaul this far out. I have this one at Lean R, but I fully expect Trump to lose this seat and hence that rating might be too generous

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/1204409827457486848

Time to break out the champagne.

....Why?

He promised only 4 terms. FF move to retire here,actually held to his promises.

Safe R -> Likely R

In a Trump Midterm

Likely -> Lean R

This was a Trump +15 district...the only other district Democrats hold in the nation that gave Trump more than 55% is MN-07. Safe R -> Safe R.

I agree it’s still Safe R, but NY-22 is also 55% Trump

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Impeachment vote certainly helped! WOW:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1214178773333094400

That might be more than Michael Bennet raised for President lol

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yeah McSally wasn't nearly as bad as most people think, the best way to think about it is that she lost a Trump +3 to a super moderate D by 2 points in 2018. Considering the national environment, that was a pretty good showing tbh

Sinema may be a moderate, but McSally and the NRSC did their best to make her out to be the crazy SJW activist that a lot of people thought she still secretly was

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

MI-8 at Likely D seems way too optimistic even for how weak the Republican field is. It’s still a pretty red seat

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The GCB has ballooned to Dem +13

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

People are really underrating the possibility that 2020 will turn into a pretty decent-sized victory for Dems. I'm not saying that swing state polls aren't important, but it's a pretty bad sign for the GOP that RCP has the generic ballot at D+8.3 and has Biden up 5 over Trump in national polling.

2020 is going to be a double landslide for Democrats just like 06 and 08 were. I am predicting Democrats pick up around 10-15 net.

Probably requires a Texas wipeout

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

It’d be pretty funny if we see Trump and Ernst easily win Iowa but Democrats sweep all four of the House seats. I actually think if King makes it out of the primary on June 2 that he might even be a bit of an underdog after him going even further off the deep end with racist stuff since the 2018 election and Republicans cutting him loose. Of course, it would only be a one-term rental there, but it’d still be pretty incredible to see the ticket splitting in that seat in particular.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

It’d be pretty funny if we see Trump and Ernst easily win Iowa but Democrats sweep all four of the House seats. I actually think if King makes it out of the primary on June 2 that he might even be a bit of an underdog after him going even further off the deep end with racist stuff since the 2018 election and Republicans cutting him loose. Of course, it would only be a one-term rental there, but it’d still be pretty incredible to see the ticket splitting in that seat in particular.

If Democrats actually sweep all four of the state's House seats, the "IA is not a Republican-leaning state, it’s just a Trump state that’s Tossup/Lean D again" takes will be insufferable. But boy, 2022 would be a colossal massacre in IA under a Democratic presidency (they’d probably lose all four House seats except maybe Axne's).

In that fun hypothetical scenario, I think Scholten would possibly be a contender for setting a new record for a losing incumbent. Joseph Cao lost by 32% I believe, so that would be the mark to beat

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DMR pollhas Ernst’s approval “falling” to 47...with 37% disapproval. Still Safe R if anyone was wondering

+10 (47/37) after an onslaught of Democratic attack ads? If it wasn’t for her retail politics, she’d probably be as unpopular as Collins right now.

I am stunned at how well Ernst has done in the fake moderate game v Collins.

I don’t think Ernst even tries to pretend to be a moderate and she doesn’t need to when she represents an increasingly red state

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/03/11/iowans-lean-toward-republicans-congress-election-2020-iowa-poll/4978477002/

D's down in all 4 Iowa districts in a SELZER poll!
Anyway don't worry too much as its a smallish sample for each district but if you average the 3 districts  you still have D's down by like 3 or 4 points which is not pretty.

Useless since it didn’t poll named people, but Iowa is going to be a Democratic wipeout in a Biden midterm

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/03/11/iowans-lean-toward-republicans-congress-election-2020-iowa-poll/4978477002/

D's down in all 4 Iowa districts in a SELZER poll!
Anyway don't worry too much as its a smallish sample for each district but if you average the 3 districts  you still have D's down by like 3 or 4 points which is not pretty.

Useless since it didn’t poll named people, but Iowa is going to be a Democratic wipeout in a Biden midterm

A selzer poll isn't useless lol.

Generic ballot is useless if it doesn’t name candidates no matter how good the pollster’s track record. Steve King for example is obviously going to do a lot worse than Generic Republican

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

OK-05 Amber Integrated (very small sample size, so take it with a grain of salt):

44% Republican challenger
40% Kendra Horn (D, inc.)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200311_OK.pdf

If Republicans can’t flip this one, they won’t be flipping much at all

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

PA-01 is a question mark. The one recruit who had promise dropped out, so now who knows who the winner of the primary will be, we'll have to see how much $$ they raise too bc right now it's not looking good for the Dems. It's a presidential year though so that could help offset Fitz's advantage

Scott Wallace was one of the single worst disaster artist candidates in 2018 and he still nearly won. Since as of now the GCB indicates 2020 to be as Democratic friendly as 2018, that seat would be in my Top 20 for that reason alone.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

With the economy imploding and Trump completely bumbling through a pandemic, seems very possible that Republicans will have a bad year.

Oh it is extremely likely Republicans will have a bad year. There’s a lot of room between bad and 2018-esque wipeout though

There’s a lot of room for it to get worse too

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Cook made House rating changes in 10 districts today:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-fall-outlook-shifts-10-districts

FL-26: Likely D to Lean D
IL-06: Lean D to Likely D
IL-14: Toss Up to Lean D
MI-08: Toss Up to Lean D
MO-02: Likely R to Lean R
NY-19: Toss Up to Lean D
NC-08: Solid R to Likely R
NC-09: Likely R to Solid R
TX-31: Lean R to Likely R
UT-04: Toss Up to Lean D

A lot of these are odd. Democrats aren’t getting stronger in some suburban areaas and simultaneously worse in others that are demographically similar

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Crystal Ball updated their senate rankings-

Maine: Lean R to Tossup
Arizona: Tossup to Lean D (!!!)
Georgia: Lean R to Likely R

Georgia is the regular race.

Agreed with all of these except Georgia. That race will go whichever way the Presidential race in Georgia goes, and by all accounts Georgia is no better than Lean R for Trump