OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Zaybay]

A great David Weigel piece about this race

Essentially O'Connor has been 100% on protecting the ACA and Social Security and bashing the Trump tax cuts. He was able to get on the air first and define himself before Balderson could. Republicans are starting to grumble a little bit like this could turn into another PA-18. Personally this feels more like AZ-08.

Funny how these races always seem to start to head that direction innit

They really all have, except for TX-27. The next question becomes, does this same occurrence happen nationwide in November?

I think so, and its because of one factor. That undecided vote. It seems like in every contest we have, the undecideds go to the D more than the R. This is in contrast to 2010, 2014, and 2016, where the R got most of the undecideds.

I think this race could become a PA-18 if done right. O'Connor has a lot going for him, and its only three weeks out. A lot can change in 3 weeks. Dems have been over preforming in literally every area of America, from MT, to the R suburbs of AZ(seriously though, AZ-08 was probably the biggest surprise of the entire congressional special season, hands down). But, then again, Balderson is rather tough, and the seat is suburban, and less likely to swing than rurals. So, I guess we just have to wait a bit and see how the race develops.

The fact that Balderson did not release an internal after O'Connor is a promising sign.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1019983711813689347

O'Connor says he has a new poll showing him only down 45-43.

Wow, already? Didnt he just release another poll a couple of days ago?

[Zaybay]

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

What is the optimal early vote percentage needed for the Dems to win the seat?

[Zaybay]

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

What is the optimal early vote percentage needed for the Dems to win the seat?

60-40 about. Dems almost always lose the election day in Ohio but they can get a decent win with EV totals around that number.

60-40 at a minimum. The dynamic of a special will keep it interesting, but O'Connor will lose the vote on E-day quite badly.

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

What is the optimal early vote percentage needed for the Dems to win the seat?

60-40 about. Dems almost always lose the election day in Ohio but they can get a decent win with EV totals around that number.

Alright, this is rather promising news. The "other" vote getting 10% so far is also promising news, as they could allow us to get less than 60% and still win. Im actually starting to see an O'Connor win as a pure tossup. Impressive.

[Zaybay]

Alright, this is rather promising news. The "other" vote getting 10% so far is also promising news, as they could allow us to get less than 60% and still win. Im actually starting to see an O'Connor win as a pure tossup. Impressive.

I wouldn't read much in to this. It's less than 10,000 votes.

Yeah, getting a bit ahead of myself. But it seems to me that O'Connor has closed the gap, and that this race will be down to the wire. I also think that the E-day vote will be more Democratic, due to the nature of the race, and so, even if O'Connor gets to 57%, I still think he would be able to pull off a win.

Then again, as you pointed out, these are really early, but from the elections I've analysed, the percentages for Early vote dont really fluctuate wildly.

[Zaybay]

This is really great, usually the EarlyV gets more R as time goes on, but it seems to be reversed.

Also, I would like to note what kind of district this is, an ancestral R one. This is suburbia, a place that has known the GOP since FDR. This should have similar results to the AZ race, where most votes are from Rs, but are only because they are registered like that.

What shocks me is that this district is giving the same margins(if not better) as the rest of the state, which includes the D cities and ancestral Ds in the south and east. Its likely that most of the D votes are modern Ds, and so will be unlikely to jump ship.

 The R vote, however, is another story. Its quite possible that modern Ds are voting for the D under an R registration, similar to AZ, or vice versa with WV and KY. These Rs are more likely to jump ship, for either the 3rd parties, or the D, indicating that this performance might be even better than what we are seeing based on a partisan registration.

[Zaybay]

Another guy named O'Connor (L) could join the race. WTH

http://radio.wosu.org/post/second-oconnor-could-join-ohios-12th-district-race#stream/0

A Libertarian would just siphon votes from the R. O'Connor doesnt have incredible name rec. People are going to vote for the Dem, not the O'Connor guy on TV.

If he joins, I would give more of an advantage to the D O'Connor.

[Zaybay]

Remember people, Ohio's early vote is historically VERY democratic. So much so that Ohio election night returns are divided into 3 phases: The Democratic dominated early vote, The Republican dominated rural/suburban day of vote, and The slow-counting cities which tend to be hard dem. Therefore, the good early voting numbers are not too out of line with expectations, and should be interpreted as only a single data point. 

Sure, thats true for Ohio the state, but its not so true for this district. This is a historic R district, one where most people who vote are registered R. Sort of like PA-18, but reversed. The numbers displayed are not votes for a candidate, but rather votes from a political party member. The D votes may not all vote D, but thats how they are registered.

Thats the big issue here. For this district, that number is way too high, a bit higher than the state, when this is one of the most heavily R registered districts in Ohio. And while Democrats have been rather loyal in voting for the party this year, historic Rs...not so much. The Republicans dominated the early vote in AZ, but many of those voters jumped ship for the Democrat, creating a close race. If something similar happens here, it will be Representative O'Connor.

But this is all speculation, and it is rather early, but from the Ohio records, the early vote only moves a couple points in favor of the GOP as time goes on, so this will be a down to the wire race.

[Zaybay]

Here is today's update. I'll be trying to get an update from Morrow County at some point this week. Also, there have been small inconsistencies with Marion County's data but hopefully they should be worked out at this point:

Dems overall decrease, Reps increase, by around 2%. For O'Connor to win, he needs to stay above 60% overall and win each county by these margins.

Franklin: 65%
Delaware: 48%
Licking: 41%
Richland: 41%
Muskingum: 41%
Morrow: 29%
Marion: 30%

So far, hes doing it, but its early, and we have no idea how the vote is actually going. I think the others and a bit of reps are voting for O'Connor(this is by registration), but thats just me.

[Zaybay]

The typical pattern in Ohio general elections is for the early vote as a whole to be ~5-10ish% more Dem than election day vote and postal ballots to be closer 20% more Republican than the election day vote. The fact that this is a special could make those numbers vary wildly. No idea about earlier early votes vs later early votes.

Which is why O'Connor needs to win the early vote by at least 20% to win... and for the rate of early voting to roughly match what it would be for a typical general election in Ohio.

So far, its a margin of 30%. Do you think its likely to go down from here, are go up, or stay the same?

[Zaybay]

Can an Ohio expert tell me if the partisan breakdown is indicative? I know of even districts in West Virginia or SWPA that are nominally still Demosaur counties. Are the Northern Columbus Metro areas ancestrally Dem or GOP?

'

This is an ancestral R stronghold. Thats personally why I think these numbers are so surprising. Even though most voters are registered R, the Ds are still holding a large majority.

We also dont know the exact margin O'Connor needs to win. It could be 60, since thats what most statewide runners need, but this is ancestral R, and a district with an R lean, so, I dunno.

[Zaybay]

I doubt the Kaisch endorsement will mean much. His popularity stands with Democrats and Indies, not Republicans. In fact, this might scare away the Super Trump Rs from voting for him.

It might peel away some indies, but its 2018, and they are mostly in the D camp, a 5% loss would be nothing, unless, of course, if this all comes down to the final ballots.

[Zaybay]

O'Connor is raising more and spending more:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1022812641209868288

Im a bit worried that O'Connor might be spending too much and thats the only reason hes getting so large of an early lead. Then I looked at Balderson's numbers, and my fears subsided.

[Zaybay]

Looking into this, apparently Balderson's primary opponent, Melanie Leneghan, has filed suit alleging that the primary was rigged in favor of Balderson through fraud in Franklin and Muskingum Counties.

Here is the case on the Ohio Supreme Court docket: http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/Clerk/ecms/#/caseinfo/2018/0866

That’s exactly the kind of story Balderson needs heading into next week

It seems we have found McCaskill's apprentice.

[Zaybay]

Excellent results for O'Connor, he really does have momentum!

[Zaybay]

This poll also seems like a reminder that we need to be careful when trying to estimate O'Connor's lead in the early vote just based on party registration.  This sample is 47R-26D on party registration, a testament to how traditionally Republican OH-12 is, and also how well O'Connor is doing among indies.  So a Dem edge of 10 points in early voting share could easily translate to a 20+ point O'Connor lead, although it's no guarantee.  Of course it also matters how high the Other early vote share is.

Your right about that. After this poll and listening to your observation, this race is tilt O'Connor.

[Zaybay]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

yeah, this speaks to fear, not to strength. Balderson is seeing some writing on the wall.

[Zaybay]

Excellent numbers for O´Connor, think he may be favored if hes getting this in early voting.

[Zaybay]

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[Zaybay]

It’s tightening, Balderson winning Muskingum 61-38. Good news for Barrasso?

Not good at all, needed to win that 65-35 to ensure a Barrasso win.

WY is vulnerable

[Zaybay]

Son of Balder is dropping on Predictit.

theyre all pumpers and morons, dont trust their judgement

[Zaybay]

He DE county is the OH of this election, the bellweather.

[Zaybay]

the needle may be online guys

[Zaybay]

Oh god, not the needle...

I don't see it online.

its paper

[Zaybay]

KS votes are coming in, and MI, and MO should be soon as well