Swiss General Elections 2011 (Elections to the Federal Council)

[Tender Branson]

I've just returned from my vote counting shift in my election district in Zurich. This year we started counting votes on Saturday so that the counting will be finished earlier on Sunday. We are not allowed to publish any numbers before noon tomorrow, but I will give you a hint regarding two parties: expect a very strong SVP and a great result for the Green-Liberal Party in the elections to the National Council.

ZuWo, did you count all the early postal votes today ?

What percentage historically are the early postal votes compared with the total votes cast ?

And as you say, you expect a good result for the SVP based on the postal votes that you counted: Is it the same in Switzerland like in Austria that the SVP and GLP (like the ÖVP and Greens) are better with postal votes than with actual election day votes ?

Yes, we counted all postal votes (roughly 8800 votes) in my election district, which accounts for more than 80% of the total number of votes. Thus, with around 20'000 people eligible to vote turnout will be a bit higher than 50%, which is quite high. More and more people have voted by post in the recent years, and as far as I know there is no great discrepancy between the postal vote and the votes cast on election day. (In Switzerland you can cast your vote on election day between 10 and 12 am, that's only 2 hours!) That's why I think the results are not going to change by much when the few remaining votes that will be cast tomorrow are counted.

Thx.

Yeah, if 80% of Swiss voters already voted with a postal ballot in advance you already have a good picture of what's going on.

Also, if only 20% of voters are voting on Sunday, I think 2 hours for them is enough ...

How was it in the past, when postal voting was not so common ? Didn't people complain about the 2 hour opening period ? Or was the opening period longer in the past ? And if it has always been only 2 hours, why wasn't it changed so people could vote between 8am and 6pm for example ?

BTW: In Austria, only 10% are voting with postal ballots - so there is a discrepancy between election day votes and postal votes. Postal votes always favor the ÖVP and Greens, while the FPÖ and the BZÖ loses. The SPÖ is flat.

[minionofmidas]

Two hours? Wtf? Was that done as a result of the de-facto shift to mail-in, or were polling hours always very short?

[republicanism]

ZuWo, am I right that after this election the BDP-Bundesrat will be replaced by a second SVP-Bundesrat and by that the old system will be re-installed?

[Hash]

ZuWo, am I right that after this election the BDP-Bundesrat will be replaced by a second SVP-Bundesrat and by that the old system will be re-installed?

I think it depends on whether or not the other parties (PS, Radicals, Catholics, Greenies) will agree to that. The Radicals seem to be ok with supporting the SVP, but it isn't impossible that the BDP could find a deal with the Socialists/Catholics to reelect Widmer-Schlumpf, which would probably throw the system even more into sh**t. The Radicals and Catholics are also feuding over which one of them should have one seat and which would should have two...

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

30% SVP
19% SP
14% CVP
13% FDP
  9% Greens
  6% Green-Liberals
  5% BDP
  4% Others

[ZuWo]

http://www.entscheidung11.sf.tv/

Here's where you can watch the election coverage of the Swiss television. They will broadcast live from all cantons from 12am to 12pm.

As for the questions some of you asked about the opening times of the polling booths in Switzerland, I have to do some research. I honestly haven't got any clue how this was handled in the past.

[minionofmidas]

ZuWo, am I right that after this election the BDP-Bundesrat will be replaced by a second SVP-Bundesrat and by that the old system will be re-installed?

I think it depends on whether or not the other parties (PS, Radicals, Catholics, Greenies) will agree to that. The Radicals seem to be ok with supporting the SVP, but it isn't impossible that the BDP could find a deal with the Socialists/Catholics to reelect Widmer-Schlumpf, which would probably throw the system even more into sh**t. The Radicals and Catholics are also feuding over which one of them should have one seat and which would should have two...

Clearly the answer is that whoever is most ready to grant the SVP a second seat should be forced to give up one.
Or just reduce all parties to one seat and give the remaining seats to the two Green parties!

[ZuWo]

For the political stability of Switzerland it is of absolute importance to grant the SVP a second seat in the Federal Council. In my opinion, the political system where the major 4 parties form a governing coalition - the seats distributed according to a 2-2-2-1 key - has been a success story for this country. I am optimistic and believe that many members of parliament come to the same conclusion at the end of the day when they elect the members to the Federal Council in December.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

http://www.entscheidung11.sf.tv/

Here's where you can watch the election coverage of the Swiss television. They will broadcast live from all cantons from 12am to 12pm.

As for the questions some of you asked about the opening times of the polling booths in Switzerland, I have to do some research. I honestly haven't got any clue how this was handled in the past.

Is there any broadcast in a uh...neutral language... like English

[ZuWo]

http://www.entscheidung11.sf.tv/

Here's where you can watch the election coverage of the Swiss television. They will broadcast live from all cantons from 12am to 12pm.

As for the questions some of you asked about the opening times of the polling booths in Switzerland, I have to do some research. I honestly haven't got any clue how this was handled in the past.

Is there any broadcast in a uh...neutral language... like English

Not on television, as far as I know. But since you usually get all the results in nice graphs, you can follow the German coverage even without speaking or understanding the language. And for those who speak French or Italian, try the websites of the Swiss-French or Swiss-Italian television stations.

[Tender Branson]

What I also don't understand:

If you have already counted all postal votes by Saturday and only 20% of voters cast their ballot today, why are the first exit polls released at 7pm, when the polls close at noon ?

[ZuWo]

What I also don't understand:

If you have already counted all postal votes by Saturday and only 20% of voters cast their ballot today, why are the first exit polls released at 7pm, when the polls close at noon ?

I think that's because Zurich and other bigger towns were the exception in this election. In most places votes are counted only on Sunday, and this takes time.

[ZuWo]

The first projections for the National Council elections in the cantons Aargau and Basel (city): No overall changes for SVP, SP and CVP. FDP loses 1, Greens lose 1. Green-Liberals and BDP each gain 1 seat.

[Tender Branson]

Live stream (also for foreigners):

http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/sfvideo/live/c49c1d6b-6ef0-0001-642b-1bc36d808500

[Tender Branson]

WTF ?

Graubünden: SVP 25%, BDP 20% = 45% (2007: SVP = 35%)

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if Franzl or Lewis understand what they are saying ...

[ZuWo]

WTF ?

Graubünden: SVP 25%, BDP 20% = 45% (2007: SVP = 35%)

That's according to the first results - probably very rural places. But still, it's a great success for both parties. The victim is probably the FDP - once again.

[Franzl]

I wonder if Franzl or Lewis understand what they are saying ...

Can't watch it right now...being on the phone...but Swiss German is rather difficult for me. I guess I understand most of what's relevant, but I have to pay close attention.

[ZuWo]

Projection for Nidwalden and Graubünden.
Nidwalden: SVP gain from FDP
Graubünden: SVP loses 1 seat, FDP loses 1 seat, BDP and GLP each gain 1 seat.

[ZuWo]

The current projection for the two seats in the Council of States in Zurich:

Verena Diener (GLP): 157'000 votes
Felix Gutzwiller (FDP): 148'000 votes
Christoph Blocher (SVP): 132'000 votes
Thomas Hardegger (SPS): 67'000 votes
Balthasar Glättli (GPS): 61'000 votes
etc.

It looks like we're heading to a second ballot as none of the candidates has enough votes to win in the first round.

[minionofmidas]

How many candidates in the runoff?

[ZuWo]

How many candidates in the runoff?

2 candidates will be elected at the end so it is theoretically possible that numerous candidates will run, but I guess after these disappointing results the SPS and the Greens will withdraw their candidates and support the Green-Liberal and, perhaps, the FDP candidate.

[ZuWo]

Projection for Solothurn:

SVP, CVP - 2 seats (no change)
SPS - 1 seat (no change)
FDP - 2 seats (no change)
CVP - 1 seat (+1 seat)
Greens - 1 seat (-1 seat)

[ZuWo]

The first official nationa projection is scheduled for 7pm. However, some general trendlines are already apparent:

SVP: remains stable, might lose a few seats
SPS: remains stable, might gain or lose a few seats
FDP: loses a considerable number of seats
CVP: remains stable, might lose a few seats
Greens: lose a considerable number of seats
Green-Liberals: gain a considerable number of seats
BDP: gains a considerable number of seats
etc.

Meanwhile, FDP chairman Fulvio Pelli (Ticino) has announced that he would retire as party chairman. Surprisingly, he has lost his seat in the National Council.

[ZuWo]

First national projection:

SVP: 26.8% (-2.1%)
SPS: 18.9% (-0.6%)
FDP: 15.0% (-2.7%)
CVP: 12.1% (-2.4%)
GPS: 8.3% (-1.3%)
GLP: 5.5% (+4.1%)
BDP: 5.4% (+5.4%)

This is a historical election in many respects. Congrats to TenderBranson, his prediction of the election result was way better than mine.

http://www.sf.tv/