2005/6 Predictions

[socaldem]

My map doesnt have fancy stuff like grey-scale and distinctions for pick-ups...

But I'm going to make some questionable calls:

Dem pick-ups: MA, NY, AR, AL, GA, NV
Rep pick-ups: OR, WI, IL, IA
Dem close holds: MI, PA
Rep close holds: CA, MD, AK (I'm tempted to suggest this could be a dark horse for dems)...

So, yeah, I'm saying Kulongoski and Blagojevich are going to lose (not because of their unwieldy Eastern European names)... they're just not very popular in their marginal states... if either loses to a popular dem in a primary, things might change.  Right now, I don't thing things look very good for Doyle up in Wisconsin either and Nussle looks to be going strong in IA. 

Granholm and Rendell are going to have close races, but will win because of their political skills.  Spitzer is unstoppable in NY and unless a very good republican emerges in MA, it looks like dems may pull it off, finally....

I'm predicting good gains for Dems.  I think both Cox and Baxley are quite strong...  I'm cautiously optimistic on Bebee's chances in Arkansas (how is the Hutchinson family name holding up down there?)... And I'm calling an upset in NV because I really like candidates State Sen. Dina Titus and Henderson mayor Gibson and I understand that Gibbons is kinda gaffe-prone...

I think Arnie might hold off Dems in CA... the legislature just has a very bad reputation and we may have a kinda Massachusetts-esque thing going on with our governors...  It seems that Westley may be the bigger challenge for him but I'm not sure he'll make it through the primaries.  Meanwhile, Arnold's been courting enviros (though the fact that he can do this and be a big hummer owner/spokesperson makes no sense to me).  Yesturday, I heard him impose a regulation forcing companies to provide shade for workers working outside on hot days...is that the type of thing that could get him working class support?  Sounds like he may be becoming a bit of a girlie man, if you ask me...

And Alaska...hmm... Frank Murkowski seems to be VERY unpopular...until a Democrat emerges, I won't call it for them, but I still think this has upset potential.

Sure, I've made some calls that are likely totally out there, but I think there's going to continue to be quite a bit of turmoil in gov races, as there has been in the last few cycles.

[socaldem]

I'm not sure about all your calls, but I'd definitely include Massachusetts as one of the more solid pick-ups for Dems...

I agree that IA will likely fall to the GOP...

Though polls don't show it right now, I really think that NV will probably switch hands.  Rep. Gibbons is a terrible, terrible candidate and he's going to have trouble winning statewide against either State Sen. Dina Titus or Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson.  I think both are rather good candidates.

Georgia also bears watching, though I think Perdue has done a fairly good job solidifying his hold on power.   

Meanwhile, I think Pawlenty will ride out the storm and edge out a victory over Hatch.  He's relatively moderate--or at least is fairly good at acting that way--and will definitely out-perform Kennedy.  A lot of money's going to be spent in the state, meanwhile, on the GOP's behalf....