538 Model Megathread

[ApatheticAustrian]

the sun belt is an area of future republican doom right now.....even if the rust belt keeps crawling right-ward on the longest of all runs.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i don't think AZ and GA are really possible this cycle but i think the part of the electorate leaning more to the DEMs is growing there stronger than the population of the republican parts of PA....could be wrong

[ApatheticAustrian]

even if she is not ahead, if that holds in more polls, trump's campaign MUST spend even more money and time there.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think silver is doing the liberal site great favor.

see it more like a skepticist position: showing every possible weakness but at the same time also including every possible advantage.

i prefer hearing about data which makes me nervous and motivated than data which creates a bubble of over-confidence.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Feet on the ground, folks; still over a month to go.

yeah but a part of it will be over in 2-3 weeks...early voting is praiseworthy.

if tomorrow goes fine for clinton......the third debate will be a trump disaster.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just wanted to share nate's take on utah with you.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-were-forecasting-the-4-way-presidential-race-in-utah/

[ApatheticAustrian]

nate just said that all of trump's gains come from johnson...he is literally bleeding left and right.


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/791980369562181632

[ApatheticAustrian]

"Literally" bleeding left and right, huh?  "Literally"....

haha, yeah, my bad but "bleeding left and right" is a figure of speech and in this case, he loses to HRC and DJT.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Actually, he appears to be not that far from getting this back to the new 272 freiwal, but he needs to find a way to come back in one of WI/PA/CO/NH (all between 15 and 20% right now, with Michigan and Minnesota just below 15).

i see him winning AZ/UT/TX/FL/NC/IA/OH/ME2....in the best-case scenario.

should still not be enough.

[ApatheticAustrian]

wat?

why?

cohn is influencing!

and the only new thing from NV was...emerson.