Democrats underestimated in Iowa?

[PoliticalShelter]

It's seems pretty much broadly agreed by atlas that Iowa is an apparently a very likely republican state, more likely to stick with Trump than Georgia, Ohio and Texas.

However when looking at Trumps approval ratings in the state, he seems to be holding up better in Ohio tha in Iowa.
Recent polling in the state suggest Trumps disapprovals in the state are pretty much identical to his disapproval in states like WI and PA, which are regarded as likely swing states in 2020. So surely Iowa should also be regarded as a potential swing state as well, at least more than it currently is.

Thoughts?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Iowa is a very swingy state in general (in the sense that it has less decidedly partisan voters and more variation between good democrat and good republican years, not just that it is a swing state). That said, it has been one of the fastest R trending states in America. It now has two republican senators, 3 GOP congressmen out of 4, a republican governor, and it voted for Trump by almost 10%. It certainly could swing back to the democrats, but it unlikely to do so in a situation where the electoral college is decided narrowly, only in a situation where democrats win comfortably.

[History505]

It would be downright silly to say Iowa is a lock for the Democrats or Republicans a little less than 3 years away from the general election. It is still a swing state, and we have to see how the campaign evolves to truly know.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It would be downright silly to say Iowa is a lock for the Democrats or Republicans a little less than 3 years away from the general election. It is still a swing state, and we have to see how the campaign evolves to truly know.

[Pericles]

If the polls are accurate Iowa is a swing state. However I'd be wary of putting much trust in polls from the Upper Midwest as they were the most inaccurate in 2016. Iowa was supposed to be close.

[Former Kentuckian]

Clinton was a terrible fit for Iowa and the Iowa Democratic Party was apparently really fractured and messy under Andy McGuire (who now thinks she can run a state and is running for Governor, for some reason). I could see someone like Amy Klobuchar winning it over Trump. A large part of the low approval ratings in Iowa is due to farmers suffering under Trump's trade policies (Politico has several articles about this, like "Trump's Trade Pullout Roil Rural America")

[PoliticalShelter]

If the polls are accurate Iowa is a swing state. However I'd be wary of putting much trust in polls from the Upper Midwest as they were the most inaccurate in 2016. Iowa was supposed to be close.

Yes but those same polls suggested that Clinton would do better in states like Wisconsin and Michigan (which she did), these new polls don't seem to show much difference in disapproval rating between Iowa and close states like Wisconsin and Pennylsvania.

[henster]

Klobuchar is the only candidate right now who I could see putting IA in lean D territory at least. She has the most upside electorally of any candidate I can think of right now, holds down MN, solid appeal in IA/WI. And the Iron Range is a lot like the Upper Peninsula just keep MI-01 relatively close for Dems would be huge.

[MT Treasurer]

Klobuchar wouldn't make IA "Lean D", lol. Maybe a Tossup, but even that's debatable.

[IceSpear]

No, Iowa is a likely R state now. Joni Ernst's win was not a fluke like everyone thought, it was a harbinger.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ernst's win was a result of a lousy Democratic candidate (Braley) and a pretty good GOP year.

I consider Iowa's 2016 performance to be a fluke, and I consider Iowa to be very much in play for the Democrats.  It's far more liberal than Ohio, in that it's anti-war. 

[henster]

I think IA is still a 50/50 state, Trump only took 51% of the vote. I think a lot of the Dem vote was lost due to a drop in turnout and to third parties, you still have 49% who doesn't care for Trump. Now if Rs start getting 53-56% routinely in IA then its probably gone the way of Missouri.

[IceSpear]

Ernst's win was a result of a lousy Democratic candidate (Braley) and a pretty good GOP year.

I consider Iowa's 2016 performance to be a fluke, and I consider Iowa to be very much in play for the Democrats.  It's far more liberal than Ohio, in that it's anti-war. 

Ernst Is a lousy candidate. People only said she was good in retrospect.

[henster]

Ernst's win was a result of a lousy Democratic candidate (Braley) and a pretty good GOP year.

I consider Iowa's 2016 performance to be a fluke, and I consider Iowa to be very much in play for the Democrats.  It's far more liberal than Ohio, in that it's anti-war. 

Ernst Is a lousy candidate. People only said she was good in retrospect.

Ernst was somewhat of precursor to Trump, she said a lot of nutty things that Dems made a big deal about that voters just shrugged off.

[IceSpear]

Ernst's win was a result of a lousy Democratic candidate (Braley) and a pretty good GOP year.

I consider Iowa's 2016 performance to be a fluke, and I consider Iowa to be very much in play for the Democrats.  It's far more liberal than Ohio, in that it's anti-war. 

Ernst Is a lousy candidate. People only said she was good in retrospect.

Ernst was somewhat of precursor to Trump, she said a lot of nutty things that Dems made a big deal about that voters just shrugged off.

Yep. Like I said, she was a harbinger that everyone assumed was a fluke. I also get major Ernst vibes from the way Atlas discusses Kelli Ward. Of course, she likely won't have the fortune of running in a Republican wave year.

[Former Kentuckian]

Ernst was an awful candidate (and she deservedly has low approval ratings) but Braley made her look golden by comparison. She was able to pull Sarah Palin moves by acting folksy, riding a motorcycle to campaign events, and joke about pig castration. It made me her look like a normal human being, no matter how crazy her politics, compared to Braley.

[Former Kentuckian]

Ernst's win was a result of a lousy Democratic candidate (Braley) and a pretty good GOP year.

I consider Iowa's 2016 performance to be a fluke, and I consider Iowa to be very much in play for the Democrats.  It's far more liberal than Ohio, in that it's anti-war. 

Ernst Is a lousy candidate. People only said she was good in retrospect.

Ernst was somewhat of precursor to Trump, she said a lot of nutty things that Dems made a big deal about that voters just shrugged off.

Yep. Like I said, she was a harbinger that everyone assumed was a fluke. I also get major Ernst vibes from the way Atlas discusses Kelli Ward. Of course, she likely won't have the fortune of running in a Republican wave year.

Ernst and Ward are extremely similar, conspiracy theories and all.

[TML]

Remember that although Trump was consistently favored to win Iowa during the last 2-3 months or so of the 2016 election campaign, most polls suggested that he would only win by about 2-4% instead of 8-10%. Thus, I wouldn't say that IA is a "lost cause" for Democrats - I believe they can easily reclaim it if they run a candidate who actively connects with working class voters there (like Obama did back in 2008 & 2012).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Remember that although Trump was consistently favored to win Iowa during the last 2-3 months or so of the 2016 election campaign, most polls suggested that he would only win by about 2-4% instead of 8-10%. Thus, I wouldn't say that IA is a "lost cause" for Democrats - I believe they can easily reclaim it if they run a candidate who actively connects with working class voters there (like Obama did back in 2008 & 2012).

I actually remember thinking that Clinton would win Iowa even after polls showed Trump ahead, as I thought the signs pointed to a general national Clinton beats her poll numbers election.

[King Lear]

Democrats will not win Iowa anytime soon, there's to many rural white evangelicals. it's quite amazing Obama won it twice, that just goes to show how Unelectable McCain and Romney were.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Trump asked it best:

"How stupid are the people of Iowa?"

In other words, they are nice Moderate swing voters and will vote for whoever likes swingy farmers more that year.

[Illiniwek]

Perhaps Iowa is the Republican-Michigan?

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Perhaps Iowa is the Republican-Michigan?

Interesting analysis. I would perhaps compare it to Pennsylvania, which "should be" Democratic given its large(ish) cities and relatively diverse, working-class population. Iowa is rural and white, and "should be" Republican yet here we are talking about its competitiveness.

Plus, 3 of Iowa's 4 CD's gave Trump less than 50% of the vote (the ones that aren't Steve King's), so the state's representatives are also not safely R.