Do you think Obama will get the high black turnout in '12 that he did last year?

[Vepres]

Do you think Obama will get the high black turnout in 2012?
and
Do you think they will give him nearly unanimous support like in 2008 (the GOP typically gets 10% of the black vote)?

This has been on my mind lately, and I can't give a good answer because there is not much of a black presence in Colorado outside Denver (though there is a very large and influential Hispanic population).

[Rowan]

I say many black conservatives will come home, and the GOP nominee will most likely get 7-8%.

[tmthforu94]

The Republican candidate will do better with blacks, maybe getting 10% at most. Turnout will be low. Many blacks came out so America could have it's first black president. Now that that's out of the way, there won't be the drive to come out again.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

My guess is that black turnout will be down 1-2%, and Obama will get 90-91% of that vote.

[Aizen]

Yeah, black turnout may not be quite as high but they'll be voting for Obama at a larger clip than they did for Kerry.

[Tender Branson]

In the long run, African-Americans will turn out at the same rate as Whites (I think a Pew study even showed a higher turnout among them than Whites in 2008).

Obama may get a slightly lower share (~92%) among them in 2012, but could get a higher share of Whites, especially in the Upper South (MO, IN, KY, OH, WV, VA, NC and maybe Florida or even the Deep South) if the economy is growing fast by Mid-2012 and Obama had a good term overall. Let's say he wins the General Election with a 10-point margin, I could see 45% of Whites voting for him.

[Eraserhead]

Black turnout might go down a bit but he'll get just as high a percentage of it, if not higher unless he massively epic fails in some way.

[Coburn In 2012]

Of course.  its automatic

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Is it worth asking?

Of course he will. It may not be as high, but even if it isn't, the numbers will be in the 90s.

Why would it not be?

Edited my name. It is catmusic again!

[pbrower2a]

In the long run, African-Americans will turn out at the same rate as Whites (I think a Pew study even showed a higher turnout among them than Whites in 2008).

Obama may get a slightly lower share (~92%) among them in 2012, but could get a higher share of Whites, especially in the Upper South (MO, IN, KY, OH, WV, VA, NC and maybe Florida or even the Deep South) if the economy is growing fast by Mid-2012 and Obama had a good term overall. Let's say he wins the General Election with a 10-point margin, I could see 45% of Whites voting for him.

45% of the white vote in the South? That would give Obama at the least an Eisenhower-scale landslide, something like this:

That's hard to believe.

[Vepres]

Is it worth asking?

Of course he will. It may not be as high, but even if it isn't, the numbers will be in the 90s.

Why would it not be?

I'm just wondering if blacks will be motivated to get the first black president reelected or not.

[You kip if you want to...]

In the long run, African-Americans will turn out at the same rate as Whites (I think a Pew study even showed a higher turnout among them than Whites in 2008).

Obama may get a slightly lower share (~92%) among them in 2012, but could get a higher share of Whites, especially in the Upper South (MO, IN, KY, OH, WV, VA, NC and maybe Florida or even the Deep South) if the economy is growing fast by Mid-2012 and Obama had a good term overall. Let's say he wins the General Election with a 10-point margin, I could see 45% of Whites voting for him.

45% of the white vote in the South? That would give Obama at the least an Eisenhower-scale landslide, something like this:

That's hard to believe.

MS more Dem than NH and NJ, now that is something groundbreaking.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama may get a slightly lower share (~92%) among them in 2012, but could get a higher share of Whites, especially in the Upper South (MO, IN, KY, OH, WV, VA, NC and maybe Florida or even the Deep South) if the economy is growing fast by Mid-2012 and Obama had a good term overall. Let's say he wins the General Election with a 10-point margin, I could see 45% of Whites voting for him.

Here's each Southern state, with the same turnout, but 45% of the white vote instead of the '08 %:

Alabama: 60.07%
Arkansas: 50.55%
Florida: 52.41%
Georgia: 60.45%
Kentucky: 49.8
Louisiana: 58.91%
Mississippi: 62.64%
Missouri: 50.19%
North Carolina: 56.05%
South Carolina: 57.75%
Tennessee: 50.28%
Texas: 53.69%
Virginia: 53.15%

Giving us this 2008 map:

[Rob]

Obama will get 95 percent of the black vote in 2012, just as he did last year.

[Rowan]

45% of whites in Alabama is much different than 45% of whites in NJ or NH.

[pbrower2a]

45% of whites in Alabama is much different than 45% of whites in NJ or NH.

Obama would have lost some states had he not gotten 45% of the white vote -- including VA and NC. Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida look as if Obama got 45% of the white vote.

Should the Republicans not hold onto the poor white vote in 2012, then they can expect a very nasty landslide. That is the only significant constituency that has shown any potential for growth. Let's remember: Obama can do nothing for poor blacks and Hispanics (whom he wants to help) without doing much the same for poor whites -- culture be damned.

[Rowan]

Yeah, but those people are Republicans, they aren't going to all of a sudden vote for Obama. The only place he can improve is among white independents.

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, but those people are Republicans, they aren't going to all of a sudden vote for Obama. The only place he can improve is among white independents.

They will vote for Huckabee; culture matters.

[Tender Branson]

In the long run, African-Americans will turn out at the same rate as Whites (I think a Pew study even showed a higher turnout among them than Whites in 2008).

Obama may get a slightly lower share (~92%) among them in 2012, but could get a higher share of Whites, especially in the Upper South (MO, IN, KY, OH, WV, VA, NC and maybe Florida or even the Deep South) if the economy is growing fast by Mid-2012 and Obama had a good term overall. Let's say he wins the General Election with a 10-point margin, I could see 45% of Whites voting for him.

45% of the white vote in the South? That would give Obama at the least an Eisenhower-scale landslide, something like this:

That's hard to believe.

I didn't mean 45% of Whites in the South, but overall in the US ...

In 2012, Obama could get 15% of Whites in AL and MS and 20% in LA. Generally about 5% more than what he got in 2008, if he performs well.

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, but those people are Republicans, they aren't going to all of a sudden vote for Obama. The only place he can improve is among white independents.

Southern poor whites will vote for Mike Huckabee in a large percentage  if he gets the nomination of the Republican Party. Other than that, they aren't at all reliable GOP voters in 2012.

Since 1968, the southeastern US has been the most capricious in its voting. It is the only region in which any third-Party candidates have gotten any electoral votes. It voted for Carter in 1976 when the rest of America voted for Ford; it split about 50-50 for Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Three former-Confederate states voted for him in 2008.

The Republican identity of Southern voters isn't so dyed-in-the-wool as it might seem. Arkansas has two Democratic Senators.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

45% of whites in Alabama is much different than 45% of whites in NJ or NH.

Obama would have lost some states had he not gotten 45% of the white vote -- including VA and NC. Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida look as if Obama got 45% of the white vote.

Should the Republicans not hold onto the poor white vote in 2012, then they can expect a very nasty landslide. That is the only significant constituency that has shown any potential for growth. Let's remember: Obama can do nothing for poor blacks and Hispanics (whom he wants to help) without doing much the same for poor whites -- culture be damned.

Obama didn't pull 40% of whites in either. Exit polls are sometimes wrong, but they're not that far off.

[??????????]

Is he a Democrat? There lies your answer.