Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, this isn’t that surprising. The problem for the GOP is that those exurbs are even more maxed out than most of the rural areas at this point (and we all know that those are probably only one cycle away from being maxed out as well), so even a slight D shift in those exurban counties would be enough to flip the state as long as Republicans lack the votes elsewhere in the state to offset the ugly trends in the Atlanta area, which are still continuing at lightning speed. If anything, the fact that the state is this close to flipping despite the fact that the GOP still keeps racking up massive margins in those exurban areas and hasn’t collapsed to the same extent in the Augusta and Savannah metropolitan areas either should scare the living daylights out of the GA GOP.

Not to mention that a 10-point gain (going from R+56 to R+46) in six years is definitely significant, especially when it’s more than the margin needed to flip the state under uniform swing from 2012 -> 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, there’s absolutely no evidence Perdue would be a weaker GE candidate than Kemp (although that has less to do with any 'strengths' Perdue has as a candidate than it has to do with Kemp being noticeably weaker than generic R).

[MT Treasurer]

Obligatory reminder that Stacey Abrams was basically the only Democrat in a competitive high-profile race in 2018 who couldn’t even outperform Hillary Clinton in the rural/small-town areas of her state and in fact did worse than Biden in most of those counties. The takes that she is a particularly "strong candidate" remind of me the hype around "female swing state veteran" Joni Ernst after 2014. Both of these candidates would likely be absolute nobodies today if it weren’t for the extremely favorable trends for their party in their respective states. Coasting on your state's partisanship and running for elected office until your state is finally blue enough to elect any Democrat doesn’t make you a "strong candidate."

Besides, her "machine" was greatly aided by Republican/Kemp-backed AVR legislation (and other provisions backed by Democrats and Abrams herself), without which Perdue would still be in the Senate today (and McConnell Majority Leader) and Trump would have held the state in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

If Abrams manages to win the gubernatorial race this fall (regardless of whether it’s in a runoff or not or against Perdue or not), it’s safe to say that the state is gone for the GOP and should be written off for 2024 and the foreseeable future until (at the very least) the next realignment. While it’s generally advisable not to overreact to midterm results, a D sweep (or even near-sweep) of the high-profile races in 2022 after the 2021 double-barrel loss would leave little room for ambiguity. Even if there’s a split and Republicans win GOV while losing SEN, I wouldn’t prioritize GA over any of WI/MI/PA/NV/AZ in 2024.