1996 if all Perot votes went to Dole
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  1996 if all Perot votes went to Dole
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Author Topic: 1996 if all Perot votes went to Dole  (Read 719 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: February 25, 2020, 08:15:28 PM »

Which, if any, states would flip?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2020, 03:37:52 AM »

Even though it's unlikely that would have happened in a head-to-head race, it's a very intersting scenario. I just went through it by checking all Clinton <50% states and add Dole and Perot. Key takeaways:

- NH, NM and WA are the states Clinton received less than 50%, but still more than Dole and Perot combined (very close in NH).

- Meanwhile, OR (margin 0.71%), PA (by 0.36%) and WI (by 0.02%! or 397 votes) would be extremely close into Dole's column.

- Clinton wins the NPV by about 0.1% or 118,422 votes but loses the EC 250-288.


Here is the map and end result:



✓ Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Former HUD Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY): 288 EVs.; 49.1%
President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 250 EVs.; 49.2%
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538Electoral
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« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2020, 04:08:30 PM »

Dole would narrowly win the electoral college but Clinton would win the popular vote by 0.1%.
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Jolly Slugg
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2020, 05:10:00 PM »

I love how Dole used a clip from LBJ's Daisy Girl in one of his campaign ads.

Lucky for the Republicans that Daisy Girl had grown up to be still be a "she/her/hers" and not like Chastity/Chaz Bono.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiiwhRdQDmc
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2020, 06:01:21 AM »

it would become the closest election in history
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BigVic
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2020, 07:57:51 PM »

Would be a close race
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2020, 07:37:54 AM »

Dole narrowly wins

The thing is though, I'm guessing Perot voters would have been roughly 50/50 between Dole and Clinton so this wouldn't have happened.
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