Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's interesting is if you put pretty much any recent set of poll numbers into that Hill-and-summet seat predicting thing... BQ either in second place or very close to it. And in one or two polls, the Liberals only a little bit above the NDP...

Out of interest, is there any chance of a poll with a large sample size and semi-decent regional stuff coming out soon?

[The Vorlon]

What's interesting is if you put pretty much any recent set of poll numbers into that Hill-and-summet seat predicting thing... BQ either in second place or very close to it. And in one or two polls, the Liberals only a little bit above the NDP...

Out of interest, is there any chance of a poll with a large sample size and semi-decent regional stuff coming out soon?

SES had released a sample = 2000 poll, it's basically 5 days of their rolling sample, not 3 days.

Still huge MOE's regionally, but better than nothing.

Here is link

http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20January%20Regional%2012%202006E.pdf

Here is a Ipsos poll (new) showing Tories +8 (all voters) and +10 (Likely voters) as well

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=011406-1r.pdf&id=2938

Ipsos also has regional breakouts,  but again huge MOEs

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks

EDIT: Liberals in third place in the Atlantic? I actually like the sound of that, but I guess it's the very, very high MoE's at work... either that or they overpolled Nova Scotia/Acadian New Brunswick...

2ndEDIT: Also strange; both pollsters have (if you adjust for MoE and all that) Sask/Man numbers *basically* unchanged from last election, despite all the changes elsewhere. Not that there's nowt suprising bout that though.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Another rethink to account for regional effects (hopefully):

Ridings that are safe to be held by the party elected there in 2004 I'll be omitting to save space. Also, all safe seat gains are from the Libs.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 3 (-2) Con 3 (+1) NDP 1 (+1)
Bonavista—Exploits safe Con gain
Labrador prob Lib hold over Con
Random—Burin—St. George's slight NDP gain from Lib

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4 (-0) Con 0 (+0)
Cardigan strong Lib hold over Con
Charlottetown prob Lib hold over Con
Malpeque slight Lib hold over Con

Nova Scotia
Con 5 (+1) Lib 3 (-2) NDP 3 (+1)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour strong NDP gain from Lib
Halifax West strong Lib hold over NDP
Kings—Hants slight Lib hold over Con
Sydney—Victoria strong Lib hold over NDP
West Nova strong Con gain from Lib

New Brunswick
Con 5 (+3) Lib 4 (-3) NDP 1
Fredericton strong Con gain from Lib
Madawaska—Restigouche prob Lib hold over Con and NDP
Miramichi slight Lib hold over Con
Saint John safe Con gain
Tobique—Mactaquac safe Con gain

Quebec
BQ 64 (+10) Lib 9 (-12) Con 2 (+2)
Ahuntsic safe BQ gain
Beauce safe BQ gain
Bourassa slight BQ gain from Lib
Brome—Missisquoi safe BQ gain
Brossard—La Prairie strong BQ gain from Lib
Gatineau safe BQ gain
Honoré-Mercier strong BQ gain from Lib
Hull—Aylmer prob BQ gain from Lib
Jeanne-Le Ber safe BQ gain
Laval—Les Îles slight Lib hold over BQ
Lévis—Bellechasse strong BQ hold over Con
Louis-Saint-Laurent  slight Con gain from BQ
Outremont safe BQ gain
Papineau safe BQ gain
Pontiac strong Con gain over BQ (was held by Lib)
Portneuf strong BQ hold over Con

Ontario
Con 60 (+36) Lib 28 (-43) NDP 14 (+7)
Ajax—Pickering slight Con gain from Lib
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing prob NDP gain from Lib
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale safe Con gain
Barrie safe Con gain
Bramalea—Gore—Malton slight Lib hold over Con
Brampton West safe Con gain
Brant safe Con gain
Burlington safe Con gain
Chatham-Kent—Essex safe Con gain
Davenport prob Lib hold over NDP
Etobicoke—Lakeshore slight Con gain from Lib
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell prob Con gain from Lib
Guelph strong Lib hold over Con
Halton prob Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek safe NDP gain
Hamilton Mountain prob Con gain from Lib
Huron—Bruce slight Con gain from Lib
Kenora slight Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)
Kitchener Centre slight Lib hold over Con
Kitchener—Conestoga safe Con gain
London—Fanshawe prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib}
London North Centre prob Con gain from Lib
London West strong Con gain from Lib
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton safe Con gain
Mississauga South prob Con gain from Lib
Mississauga—Streetsville slight Con gain from Lib
Newmarket—Aurora safe Con regain from Belinda
Nickel Belt slight NDP gain from Lib
Nipissing—Timiskaming safe Con gain
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oak Ridges—Markham prob Con gain from Lib
Oakville strong Con gain from Lib
Oshawa strong Con hold over NDP
Ottawa—Orléans safe Con gain
Ottawa South prob Con gain from Lib
Ottawa West—Nepean safe Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob NDP gain from Lib
Parry Sound—Muskoka prob Con gain from Lib
Peterborough prob Con gain from Lib
St. Catharines safe Con gain
Sarnia—Lambton prob Con gain from Lib
Simcoe North safe Con gain
prob NDP gain from Lib
Thornhill slight Con gain from Lib
Thunder Bay—Rainy River prob Con gain over NDP  (was held by Lib)
Thunder Bay—Superior North prob NDP gain from Lib
Trinity—Spadina safe NDP gain
Whitby—Oshawa strong Con gain from Lib
Welland prob Con gain over NDP (was held by Lib)

Manitoba
Con 9 (+2) NDP 3(-1) Lib 1(-2) Ind 1(+1)
Churchill slight Ind gain over Lib from NDP
Saint Boniface slight Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South prob Con gain from Lib
Winnipeg South Centre prob Lib hold over Con

Saskatchewan
Con 13 Lib 1

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont safe Con gain
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain

British Columbia
Con 22 (+2) Lib 8 (-0) NDP 4 (-1) Ind 0 (-1)
Burnaby—Douglas slight NDP hold over Lib
Burnaby—New Westminster Lib slight gain from NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight Lib hold over NDP
New Westminster—Coquitlam strong Con hold over NDP
North Vancouver prob Con gain from Lib
Richmond slight Lib hold over Con
Skeena—Bulkley Valley prob Con gain from NDP
Southern Interior prob NDP gain from Con
Surrey North strong Con gain over NDP from Ind
Vancouver Centre slight Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Kingsway slight Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver South prob Lib hold over Con
Victoria slight Lib hold over NDP

Taking a look at the regionals really affected my view of the BC races.  It's not so much that the Libs are strong here, because they're not, but they don't seem to be any weaker here than in 2004.  It looks like BC will keep intact its tradition of being out of step with the rest of Canada by having the Grits gain at least one riding they don't currently hold here.

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 148 (+49)
Lib 68 (-67)
BQ 64 (+10)
NDP 27 (+8)
Ind 1 (-0)

[The Vorlon]

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Hawn is ahead in Edmonton centre, but its not a blowout by any means.  Hawns "troops on the ground" as not as good as the combined NDP/Liberal/Green/Communist/EdmonttonJournal  forces of darkness working together in Edmonton Centre so I would not count this chicken till it hatches.

A "darkhorse" riding to look at is also Edmonton Strathcona, Jafer might actually be in trouble for the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A "darkhorse" riding to look at is also Edmonton Strathcona, Jafer might actually be in trouble for the Tories.

Seriously? Who from?

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

[Kevinstat]

A "darkhorse" riding to look at is also Edmonton Strathcona, Jafer might actually be in trouble for the Tories.

Seriously? Who from?

I imagine he's thinking from the NDP, even though they came in third here last time.  http://www.electionprediction.org/ has a lot of people predicting an NDP gain in Edmonton Strathcona, and only one person predicting a Liberal gain.  The riding is "called" by the site's editor (the editor takes into accout user predictions in making the calls, but weights the comments by certain factors such that even a 99/1 split in predictions for the NDP in a rock solid Conservative riding wouldn't likely have that riding called for them, although I'm not absolutely sure about that) as a Conservative hold, but was moved (at least for the most recent time, as ridings can and have been moved to Too Close to Call) into the Conservative column (from Too Close to Call) on December 12, later than many ridings were called.  You can go to http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/riding/48018-edmonton-strathcona.htm to view the predictions and comments made for that riding.

[Gabu]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

I don't really know why, but BC has come to have an amazing ability to utterly defy and even openly revolt against basically any trends emerging in the rest of Canada.  I'm almost 100% sure that if the Conservatives got, say, a 200-seat majority, BC would give every last seat to the Liberals.

[ATFFL]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

I don't really know why, but BC has come to have an amazing ability to utterly defy and even openly revolt against basically any trends emerging in the rest of Canada.  I'm almost 100% sure that if the Conservatives got, say, a 200-seat majority, BC would give every last seat to the Liberals.

You are obviously an idiot.  If the Conservaties had a 200 seat majority, BC would split between the Marxist-Leninst party, the Western Block Party, and the Bloc.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

I don't really know why, but BC has come to have an amazing ability to utterly defy and even openly revolt against basically any trends emerging in the rest of Canada.  I'm almost 100% sure that if the Conservatives got, say, a 200-seat majority, BC would give every last seat to the Liberals.

That's not what happened in 1984

[Gabu]

I can't seem to get why the NDP is losing support in BC.

I don't really know why, but BC has come to have an amazing ability to utterly defy and even openly revolt against basically any trends emerging in the rest of Canada.  I'm almost 100% sure that if the Conservatives got, say, a 200-seat majority, BC would give every last seat to the Liberals.

That's not what happened in 1984

Yeah, but that was 1984, so the entire country turned to the dark side in homage of George Orwell.  They got back into the swing of things in 1988 when they were like "we're going with the mothaf***in' NDP, and you can't do a thing about it".  Then in 1993, when the Liberals got a 177-seat majority, BC was like "NOPE SORRY BACK TO THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY FOR US LOL".  Then the Liberals lost a considerable amount of support in 2004, so naturally, the Liberals got more seats in BC in that election than they had ever gotten under Chrétien.

[Cubby]

This is the first time I've used the Hill & Knowlton calculator, its really cool
It looks like nationwide, we'll be seeing about an 8-11% swing from Liberal to Conservative

I realize that the Liberals have been in power 12 years and that its not good to have 1 party in power that long, so I guess I'm resigned to a Tory victory.

Will Steven Harper ban gay marriage?

Reading through this thread its funny that the Liberals are called the Grits, why? Grits are a food from the Southern U.S. I thought.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Strategic Counsel poll... and because I'm bored I'll post some of the breakdowns...

Con 40%, Lib 27%, NDP 16%, BQ 11%, Grn 6%

Quebec numbers are extremely interesting... BQ 43%, Con 26%, Lib 17%, NDP 9%... because the new Tory gains have come off the BQ. Outside Greater Montreal (BQ 1st, Lib narrow lead over Con for 2nd), the numbers are... BQ 41%, Con 32%, Lib 12%.

Ontario numbers are grim for the Liberals; Tories now have a 7pt lead there... and in the GTA (416+905) the Liberal lead is down to just 3pts. Outside the GTA the numbers are extremely grim for the Liberals; if trends continue they could have less seats there than the NDP.

Seat projecting thing makes this Con 166, BQ 61, Lib 54, NDP 26. O/c that's with uniform swing so...

[minionofmidas]

Sas and Man figures?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sas and Man figures?

They don't do those; Sask/Man is part of there Prairies region (which also includes Alberta. Which is (IIRC) bigger than both the two put together, or pretty close to being so). NDP figure has been going up and down a lot in that region, but always within the MoE.
An odd feature of this election is that it's become so hard to work out what the hell is going on out there actually...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to a poster on www.electionprediction.com a poll has been published for the Churchill riding; NDP 34%, Lib 25%, I-NDP 23%. The media source that the poll was apparently published in is registration only, so I've not been able to check if those numbers are accurate or not.

An Ipsos-Reid poll for Edmonton Centre has McLellan trailing; Con 42%, Lib 35%, NDP 15%, Grn 7%

The record of individual riding polls in 2004 was terrible, btw

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ekos tracker...

All Canada
Con 38.6%, Lib 27.2%, NDP 18.6%, BQ 10.6%, Grn 4.4%

Ontario
Con 41.7%, Lib 31.4%, NDP 20.3%, Grn 5.7%

Quebec
BQ 46.6%, Con 21.6%, Lib 18.1%, NDP 9.8%, Grn 3.3%

Significantly 15% of voters are undecided. Interestingly the poll picked up that there are a lot of Liberals willing to vote NDP.

Tories are planning a big rally in *Montreal* apparently...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hill & Knowlton's projection for the Ekos numbers...

Con 156, BQ 61, Lib 49, NDP 41

[2952-0-0]

Now, these numbers are just surreal to say the least. I *never* expected the Tories to surge *this* high in Quebec. And to see the Liberals actually jump to third place for the first time ever, WOW. Just WOW.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now, these numbers are just surreal to say the least. I *never* expected the Tories to surge *this* high in Quebec. And to see the Liberals actually jump to third place for the first time ever, WOW. Just WOW.

^^^

This is beginning to look like a re-enactment of 1993; with Harper playing Chrétien, Martin as Campbell, Duceppe as Bouchard and Layton as Manning...

[2952-0-0]

Now, these numbers are just surreal to say the least. I *never* expected the Tories to surge *this* high in Quebec. And to see the Liberals actually jump to third place for the first time ever, WOW. Just WOW.

^^^

This is beginning to look like a re-enactment of 1993; with Harper playing Chrétien, Martin as Campbell, Duceppe as Bouchard and Layton as Manning...

...with the soldiers-on-streets ad playing the Chretien-has-a-deformed-face ad. Have you seen the latest Liberal attack ads? They all follow the same damn annoying format and it's pitiful..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New SES poll...

Con 37 (-1), Lib 29 (-1), NDP 18 (+1), BQ 11 (+1)

NDP numbers been edging up for a few days; intially driven by a surge in Ontario, and now by an upward movement out West that's almost outside the MoE. Tories down from a few days ago... but here's the thing; the Liberals have not been able to capitalise on this and are still falling (trendlines looking as grim as ever).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...with the soldiers-on-streets ad playing the Chretien-has-a-deformed-face ad.

...and the same mistake of an *extremely* sudden pull was made...

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No, but I can sorta guess...

Apparently Martin was campaigning in Scarborough last week. Scarborough!

Another case of a Liberal candidate up to no good hath emerged in downtown Toronto (I guess you've heard about that?)

[Hatman 🍁]

Just did a poll tonight. I got 13 surveys done, and maybe one or two said they were voting Liberal. Very happy, the NDP got about 7, the rest Conservative. Interestingly, not one single person said that knowledge of an inevitable tory majority would sway their vote. Also a good sign One caller said he was voting for good ol' Ed (Schreyer)