Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[2952-0-0]

Here is the 2004 result:



On election night I will *try* to create a similar map updated to reflect election calls.

[minionofmidas]

Hehe, cool map.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there a site where we can plug in percentages and get seat totals?(ala electoralcalculus.co.uk)

Yes: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/

Here is the 2004 result:



On election night I will *try* to create a similar map updated to reflect election calls.

You stole that off of wiki. It's *so* hideous. I will be making better maps on election night, if I am here. I probably wont be actually.. ha! The next day, for sure though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There will be no Tory candidate in British Columbia Southern Interior; the current Tory candidate is in trouble over smuggling charges. It's too late for the Tories to pick a new candidate. The previous candidate will still be on the ballot; he won't be let into the Tory caucus if he wins though. Harper acted so fast on this it must have made the guy's head spin...
The riding in question (which runs along the U.S border, largely north of Washington IIRC) was a razor-thin Con/NDP marginal last election and the current Tory M.P is standing down this election.

[minionofmidas]

Safe NDP pickup then?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Any good Quebec polls?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Recent numbers (in almost all cases) have the BQ somewhere between about 45% and about 50%, with the *Tories* in second place (hovering around 20%) and the Liberals not far behind. Further breakdowns indicate that the Liberals have almost totally collapsed outside Greater Montreal (where they're still polling in the high '20's to low '30's). Tories on about 30% in the rest of Quebec in more than one poll.

One problem; the best pollster as far as Quebec goes is Leger... and they haven't released a poll since before the Tory surge in Quebec. Should be very interesting to see their numbers when they do release one though...

[2952-0-0]

Is there a possibility that the Tory surge would split anti-Liberal (Bloc and Tory) vote outside Montreal, ironically causing Liberal victories elsewhere in Quebec?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a possibility that the Tory surge would split anti-Liberal (Bloc and Tory) vote outside Montreal, ironically causing Liberal victories elsewhere in Quebec?

Not sure... there might, just might, be one or two seats where that could happen... have to check the '04 results though...

[Hatman 🍁]

There will be no Tory candidate in British Columbia Southern Interior; the current Tory candidate is in trouble over smuggling charges. It's too late for the Tories to pick a new candidate. The previous candidate will still be on the ballot; he won't be let into the Tory caucus if he wins though. Harper acted so fast on this it must have made the guy's head spin...
The riding in question (which runs along the U.S border, largely north of Washington IIRC) was a razor-thin Con/NDP marginal last election and the current Tory M.P is standing down this election.

YES! One of our targets!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Ekos is right and if this isn't a blip, the Liberals *may* have begun to bleed support to the NDP. Only a smallish % change but...
Wait and see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Liberal candidate in B.C (Abbotsford I think) has apparently tried to bribe the NDP candidate to drop out of the race

[afleitch]

A Liberal candidate in B.C (Abbotsford I think) has apparently tried to bribe the NDP candidate to drop out of the race

I think every Canadian candidates finger is in some pie somewhere by now!
It would be funny if it were not so serious.

[ATFFL]

A Liberal candidate in B.C (Abbotsford I think) has apparently tried to bribe the NDP candidate to drop out of the race

That is the sort of news they really need right now.  Are they actively looking for ways to shoot themselves in the foot now?  They've already unloaded a full clip and seem intent on reloading and putting another few rounds in.

I wonder how far they can fall at this point.  If this type of thing comes out in mor ethan one location, it could really kill the party.

[Hatman 🍁]

A Liberal candidate in B.C (Abbotsford I think) has apparently tried to bribe the NDP candidate to drop out of the race

What stupidity, neither party will win Abbotsford. It's in the heart BC's bible belt.

[Lincoln Republican]

I am changing my previous prediction of a Conservative minority now to a Conservative majority.

Conservative          158
Liberal                      70
Bloc Quebecois         59
New Democrat          21

Total                       308



 

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon,

Will you be throwing in some more of your professional opinions?

Sure...

This is posted at 8 pm EST on Friday January 13th.

Tories are up just on the edge of doube digits, lets call it 8-9% or so.

Factor a lot of the cunuck pollsters are NOT taking into account is a decent likely voter screen. 

Most of these polling firms are running what is basically a registered voter poll in US terms, I suspect the Tories may do a tad better on election day.

Seat wise the Tories are on the cusp of a majority government, _ I currently have them projected at 145-152 seat - just shy of the 155 they need.

Region by region:

Atlantic Canada.

Tightened up a lot, now very close to even, Tories have momenutum, may even be a tiny bit ahead. Because of the way the vote is distributed, it does not do the Tories a lot of good.  Polls may be close but  Liberals are still up a few seats.

Quebec.

Paul Martin's (Liberal Leader) personal approval rating have imploded - he is just f&*king gone. 

If Martim campaigns outside Montreal he better bring extra security. 

Martins numbers make somebody like, say Grey Davis, look POPULAR. - One tracking poll has his "strongly approve" number at 4%, his strongly disapprove" number at 57% - these are Osama Bin Ladin like numbers... "brutal" is an understatement. 

Grits (Liberals) are in utter freefall, Tories picking up maybe 2/3 of grit freefall, and pealing of some. but not a lot, of Bloq.

Tories might get 25% in Quebec, but Bloq is so strong that only equates to maybe 7 or 8 seats. - Bloq has a decent shot BTW of being the official opposition with 62-65ish seats.

Ontario

The province for all the marbles...

Tories up a solid 3-5% in this province (plis some "froth" we will wait and see on), grits are declining, but nowhere near as bad as rest of the country.  A REAL danger is that the Liberal supporters at the end, if they feel defeat is upon them may strategically vote NDP in about 18 or so Ontario ridings.  It is possible (but unlikely) that the NDP could have more seats than the Liberals.

Current projection is Tories get 54 seats, but things are  very fluid in Ontario, the "905" belt (referes to the area code of the suburbs that ring Toronto) is really in flux and I don't have full access to good data in that area.

Check back tomorrow, this 54 could change either way.

 Liberal attack ads have hardened Tory support (bad), but at least stopped the bleeding in Ontario (good) , at least a little.

Manitoba, Sakatchewan, Alberta

There are 48 seats.  The Tories get 40 of them, at least...

BC

Tories have made greater gains here than elsewhere. (relative to the start of the campaign they at +/- even with the 2004 results)

Torys up 5-7% over liberals

Best guess is 22 Tory seats, but in reality there are about a dozen seats in the lower mainland and on the island that you could flip a coin and do at least as well as I could projecting them.

Thats a quickie non indepth take.

If you have any questions, let them rip... I'll do the best I can.

[bullmoose88]

Any Maps? (that US style map you did before 2004 was awfully nifty)

What I want to know (and you'd be one of the best to say)...are the odds the Tories get a majority, minority government, or that the Liberals hold on (what are they looking at now, one chance in twenty? at best?)

[The Vorlon]

Any Maps? (that US style map you did before 2004 was awfully nifty)

What I want to know (and you'd be one of the best to say)...are the odds the Tories get a majority, minority government, or that the Liberals hold on (what are they looking at now, one chance in twenty? at best?)

The Liberals are done.  Stick a fork in them.

To borrow a line from somebody's signature... "If Paul Martin were to become a Funeral Director... people would stop dying)

It will, baring something pretty amazing, be a Tory Government.

I'd put the chances of a Minority at about 58%, A majority at 42%.

Data is very fluid in Ontario (106 seats)  All the chaos/noise from the Liberal slander ads has both shocked their enemies but also given (at least for the short term) a shot of energy to their friends.

My "guess" is that the Tory slander ads are a lot like Hitlers last offensive in the Arden in WWII, - flashy - made a lot of noise - but ultimately just delayed the inevitable.

[bullmoose88]

Belinda Stronach=Canada's Jim Jeffords

Anyways, I'd agree with your assessment. I'm sitting here thinking of the possible scenarios in which there wouldn't be a tory government...

Theres no chance the NDP and Liberals could band together and form a majority if the Tories fall short of the post right (The bloc numbers ensure that I think)?

if the Tories form a minority government, who do they reach out to (if anyone at all) to make sure they have the numbers to pass critical measures, the liberals (if they're centrist enough in their new form) or the Bloc (which would only seem to be on questions of federalism I think)...I assume the NDP is out of the question.

[Hatman 🍁]

The tories will attempt to govern in a minority the same way the Liberals have. With wheeling and dealing with the other parties. They will need the Liberals for economic measures, socially conservaitve Liberals for their social agenda, the NDP for electoral reform and the BQ and NDP for integrity issues.

[Hatman 🍁]

I just want to add something to rebut the Vorlon's statement that the tories will do better than they are polling. I disagree. People are embarassed to admit they will be voting Liberal. This gives the tories inflated numbers. You should recall this happening last time as well.

[The Vorlon]

I just want to add something to rebut the Vorlon's statement that the tories will do better than they are polling. I disagree. People are embarassed to admit they will be voting Liberal. This gives the tories inflated numbers. You should recall this happening last time as well.

You may be right... I am not a Canadain expert...

That being said...

The Tory demographic is quite a bit older that the Grit demographic - and the likelyhood of actually voting increases with age.

Secondly, its winter - The Tory demographic is abit more affluent than the Grit demographic - this is certainly a HUGe over simlification, but Torys have SUVs and Grits ride the bus... hence it is easier for the Tories to get to the poll.

Thirdly, people who want change are more likely than those who want the status quo to actually vote...

Forthly, all the tracking indicators indicate ther Tory vote is pretty stoked... they are highly motivated... a good deal more so than the Grit vote.

It is ten days out, and ten days is about 2 lifetimes, but I do expect the Tories to mildly underpoll this time around.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals ride the bus? wtf? lol... this is not the US. Liberals here tend to be both rich and poor, much like the Conservatives too. Regionalism is a bigger factor than wealth. Perhaps only the NDP and the BQ get votes based on wealth, but that doesn't include cities like Ottawa and Toronto and some places in British Columbia.

[The Vorlon]

Liberals ride the bus? wtf? lol... this is not the US. Liberals here tend to be both rich and poor, much like the Conservatives too. Regionalism is a bigger factor than wealth. Perhaps only the NDP and the BQ get votes based on wealth, but that doesn't include cities like Ottawa and Toronto and some places in British Columbia.

I did flag "ride the bus" as a huge over simplification...

Let me rephrase in a way I am sure you will agree is accurate.

Liberals have thier strongest support among "new canadians" - who by virtue of their relative newness to the society tend to be both younger and less financially well off than other other canadians.

Both age AND income correlate positively with the likelyhood of actually voting, thus both factors tend to suggest a higher Tory turnout than a Liberal on election day.

BTW - race seems semi-stable right now...

Tory lead in the last 5 Strategic Counciil polls has been 8, 10, 11, 12, 11 %

Tory Lead in the last 3 SES polls has been 9, 9, 9,%

Tory leads in the last 5 Ekkos samples has been 5.2, 12.3, 8.2, 8.5, 10.3%

The good news if you are a Tory is that if the election where held today, you would win.

The bad news is that the election is still 10 days away and the Liberals have maybe stopped the Tory growth, although it is too early to say if they have reversed it.

Finally, the SES poll will close a fair bit today as a very positive Tory "blip" rolls off the three dave average - Liberals likely close to 5 or 6 % in that poll today.