Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Finally some movement in the trackers... sort of.

SES shows a swing towards the Liberals (now up to 41%) and the NDP (now up to 18%) and away from the Tories (down to 26%). Strategic Counsel is basically steady within the MoE.
Regional stuff is actually interesting now;

SES has shown a significant increase in the NDP vote out West over the past week; they've gone up by 7pts. Strategic Counsel show a near-perfect three way split in B.C. Situation in Quebec is stable, while SES shows the Tories slipping badly in Ontario.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh and a Leger poll shows the BQ at dead on 50% in Quebec. High, but less than most breakdowns.

[Hatman 🍁]

yay! The NDP was down to 14% for a bit last week. Good to hear we're back up in the polls

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A good Tory sample seems to have kicked in in the SES tracker; either that or the previous week had a bad Tory sample. Tories up to 30% now (always beware of one day of track etc, etc, etc).

Both SES and Strategic Counsel have released regional stuff from the composite of a week or so's polling, but I'm only going to post SES's numbers as tuthers looks a bit dodgy (BQ on 54% in Montreal etc) so just SES's numbers for you all:

Atlantic: Lib 55%, Con 25%, NDP 15%
Montreal Area: Lib 35%, BQ 35%, NDP 14%, Con 11%
Rest of Quebec: BQ 52, Lib 30%, Con 10%, NDP 4%
GTA: Lib 50%, Con 26%, NDP 18%
SW Ontario: Lib 53%, Con 27%, NDP 18%
N & E Ontario: Lib 39%, Con 33%, NDP 21%
Man/Sask: Con 41%, NDP 29%, Lib 27%
Alberta: Con 54%, Lib 30%, NDP 11%
BC: Lib 42%, Con 29%, NDP 23%

Notes: A traditional early-election set of numbers for the Grits in B.C. The big question is... will they have the traditional late-election collapse in B.C?
SW Ontatio Liberal numbers and Montreal NDP numbers look too high. Other than that, all seems plausible. Note that MoE's are rather high.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, the NDP aren't doing well in BC according to those numbers. I am hoping the NDP does really well in Montreal, I read in the paper they are running a star candidate who many thought would run for the Bloc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, in case anyone is interested about any Man/Sask figures posted, the popular vote in both provinces last time was pretty similer (C 41.8%/L 27.2%/NDP 23.4%, C 39.1%, L 33.2%, NDP 23.5%) although this wasn't the case in 2000.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and the trackers have swung back to where they were a week ago. Y'know, I'm getting sick of this... how long till someone publishes a proper poll?

Apparently Ipsos-Reid did the other day, but I can't find the figures. Will have another look...

EDIT: I've been able to find *some* stuff from the Ipsos-Reid poll (but not all)...

National: Lib 34%, Con 30%, NDP 16%
BC: "almost even split between the three main parties"
Ontario: Lib 41%, Con 34%, Can't find NDP figure

Oh and a new one from Strategic Counsel; there showing a slightly different picture to SES now. Not that it means much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Decima poll: Lib 36%, Con 27%, NDP 20%, BQ 13%. Some regional stuff... BC: Lib 36% (40% in Vancouver area), NDP 32%, Con 27%, Alberta: Con 52%, Lib 24%, NDP 18%, Ontario: Lib 44%, Con 31%, NDP 19% [Area Code breakdowns: 416 Lib 33pt lead over NDP, 905 and 519 Lib 9pt lead over Con, 613 is a tie], Quebec: BQ 54%, Lib 24% [Greater Montreal: BQ 45%, Lib 31%].

[Hatman 🍁]

You gotta love the polls

Here's my early popular vote prediction:

(subject to change of course)

Liberals 35%
Conservatives 30%
NDP 16.5%
BQ 13.5%
Green 5%

[Siege40]

I went down to the NDP Riding office for Brampton West this past weekend, everyone there seemed very nice and I got to meet some local candidates.

On the issues of polls, I bet the end result of this election will be roughly...

LP: 35%
CP: 31%
NDP: 17%
BQ: 13%
Other: 4%

There'll be some turn-over, but no breakthroughs.

[Hatman 🍁]

I went down to the NDP Riding office for Brampton West this past weekend, everyone there seemed very nice and I got to meet some local candidates.

I have contacted the Ottawa South NDP, and I hope to be working on their campaign. While the people in the Ottawa Centre NDP are friendly, they dont seem to like to contact me for some reason. I wanted to put up some signs last weekend, but they never got back to me, despite sending me an email about putting up signs.

Speaking of signs, I haven't seen many in my riding. 2 residential signs for the tories and the Liberals each, and one big Tory sign at a major interesection. They are a lot more prevalent in Ottawa Centre. The NDP candidate refuses to put up signs on public property however the Liberal candidate has tons of them. However, the NDP candidate is winning the sign war in the parts of the riding I have diven trhough on residential properties. No surprise, considering the part of the riding I have been in. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Embarrassing campaign photo no.1:



Count Duceppela...

[Siege40]

I went down to the NDP Riding office for Brampton West this past weekend, everyone there seemed very nice and I got to meet some local candidates.

I have contacted the Ottawa South NDP, and I hope to be working on their campaign. While the people in the Ottawa Centre NDP are friendly, they dont seem to like to contact me for some reason. I wanted to put up some signs last weekend, but they never got back to me, despite sending me an email about putting up signs.

Speaking of signs, I haven't seen many in my riding. 2 residential signs for the tories and the Liberals each, and one big Tory sign at a major interesection. They are a lot more prevalent in Ottawa Centre. The NDP candidate refuses to put up signs on public property however the Liberal candidate has tons of them. However, the NDP candidate is winning the sign war in the parts of the riding I have diven trhough on residential properties. No surprise, considering the part of the riding I have been in. 

The only signs in my area are the big wooden ones, it appears that all parties are ignoring the smaller metal ones, they can't stay up maybe, or they could get sunk in decent snow. I pass probably two dozen signs on my way to school, which is only 30 minutes. Most are Navdeep Bains. My school's in a different riding.

If you're having problems, just find out where it is, and run in and say hello. The Youth Team coordinator should be able to lend a hand, if they have one.

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New poll from Ipsos-Reid (for those who don't know, they have a very good track record with a tendency to lean ever-so-slightly to the right)...

National: Lib 36%, Con 27%, NDP 17%, BQ 14%, Grn 4%
BC: Con 33%, Lib 33%, NDP 25%
Man/Sask: NDP 34%, Con 31% [can't find Lib figure]
Ontario: Lib 47%, Con 28% [can't find NDP figure]
Quebec: BQ 56%, Lib 25% [can't find figures for fringe parties]

Meanwhile the trackers continue to be insane...

[Hatman 🍁]

34% for the NDP in Sask/Man? Yeah right.

[Hatman 🍁]

French debate tommorow. Also, former Governor General Edward Schreyer will be running for the NDP! I really like Schreyer too, although he is running in a tough riding, Selkirk-Interlake.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also, former Governor General Edward Schreyer will be running for the NDP! I really like Schreyer too, although he is running in a tough riding, Selkirk-Interlake.

Seriously? Now that's a star candidate...

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, former Governor General Edward Schreyer will be running for the NDP! I really like Schreyer too, although he is running in a tough riding, Selkirk-Interlake.

Seriously? Now that's a star candidate...

Yep

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/14/schreyer051214.html

[minionofmidas]

French debate tommorow.

So we can see how well Harper can speak it?

[Hatman 🍁]

French debate tommorow.

So we can see how well Harper can speak it?

The good thing about Harper's French is I can actually understand what he says, because he speaks slowly and annunciates all the words clearly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bearing in mind that his son (I think) nearly won the main predecessor riding to Selkirk-Interlake based on name recognition in *1993* of all years... he probably counts as a very strong candidate

Selkirk-Interlake itself is a very interesting riding in it's own right; in 1997 Reform, the Liberals and the NDP were all within a tiny, tiny, tiny % of each other...

[Hatman 🍁]

Selkirk-Interlake itself is a very interesting riding in it's own right; in 1997 Reform, the Liberals and the NDP were all within a tiny, tiny, tiny % of each other...

I always cringe when the winner gets less than 30% of the vote.

[Siege40]

The only thing holding me back from fully consider a run in Federal politcs as an adult is my utter inability to speak French. I don't intend to watch the French debate, my French is too rusty, but I'll catch highlights.

[Hatman 🍁]

The only thing holding me back from fully consider a run in Federal politcs as an adult is my utter inability to speak French. I don't intend to watch the French debate, my French is too rusty, but I'll catch highlights.

Yeah, me too. I gotta learn French. I'm hoping to do an exchange program in Quebec this summer, but we'll see. I want to learn some French before I run for city council next fall (If I plan to do so). I believe my Ward is ~20% francophone.

[WalterMitty]

do all canadians learn french in school?