Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[minionofmidas]

Booh.

[minionofmidas]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Or, if EVERYTHING goes our way - can you say official opposition?

[minionofmidas]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Or, if EVERYTHING goes our way - can you say official opposition?

That is a ton to ask for.  I mean, you would need the libs to finish collapsing and have the NDP pick up their ridings.  Otherwise you might have trouble beating the Bloc for official opposition. 

Though, if you do end up over the Libs and the Cons get a majority government, the next election could see the two parties fight it out to be the official left wing pary of Canada.

Of course, the result I would pay most to see is BQ 75, Tories 74, Grits 74, NDP 74, other 11.

[minionofmidas]

electionprediction.com has their prediction as surprisingly close: CPC 108, LPC 93, BQ 58, NDP 23, Other 1, Too Close 25.

Both the CPC and NDP will probably do better than that. 

Their final(?) prediction is CPC 118, grits 104, BQ 56, NDP 29, André Arthur 1.
Liberals over 100 seats? No. I don't think so.

[minionofmidas]

electionprediction.com has their prediction as surprisingly close: CPC 108, LPC 93, BQ 58, NDP 23, Other 1, Too Close 25.

Both the CPC and NDP will probably do better than that. 

Their final(?) prediction is CPC 118, grits 104, BQ 56, NDP 29, André Arthur 1.
Liberals over 100 seats? No. I don't think so.

Time to eat my words ... myam. Delicious.

[minionofmidas]

Create a Canada 2007 thread and sticky it maybe?

[minionofmidas]

And the result if a proportional system was used


CP: 113 (-11) (+14)
Lib: 94 (-9) (-36)
NDP: 54 (+25) (+35)
BQ: 32 (- 19) (-22)
Green: 14 (+14) (+14)
Ind: 1 (-) (-)

Well, the exact result would depend on the exact method used...
Since in Canada, the overrepresentation of certain regions - Prince Edward Island, the Maritimes in general, the Territories, Northern Ontario... - seems to be politically intended, I think a pr system would likely include this factor too. Only way to do that with pr is having constituencies with fixed no.s of seats.
I thought of the following - provinces of now under 20 ridings become multi-member constituencies, using D'Hondt.
The territories become one 3-member constituency.
Québec, Ontario, Alberta and B.C. are split into several constituencies of 20 seats max. (see below)
Results...

Newfoundland (change on reality, not on last election)
Liberal 3 (-1)
Tory 3
NDP 1 (+1)

Nova Scotia
Liberal 4 (-2)
NDP 4 (+2)
Tory 3

Prince Edward Island
Liberal 3 (-1)
Tory 1 (+1)

New Brunswick
Liberal 4 (-2)
Tory 4 (+1)
NDP 2 (+1)

Manitoba
Tory 6 (-2)
Liberal 4 (+1)
NDP 4 (+1)

Saskatchewan
Tory 8 (-4)
NDP 3 (+3)
Liberal 3 (+1)

Territories
Liberal 1 (-1)
NDP 1
Tory 1 (+1)

Haven't calculated the results for the major provinces yet - as unlike the above it actually looks like work - but I have spent the last hour or so working out what the constituencies might be. I started out with the divisions on electionprediction but had to greatly adapt these.

Québec
ep has Montréal - 22, North of St Lawrence - 18, South of St Lawrence - 25, North - 10.
The North vs North of St Lawrence distinction doesn't make much geographical sense. Montréal includes Laval, and a constituency only partly in Laval. Ignoring these -
Montréal - 18, North - 32, South - 25.
I split N and S along East-West lines. NE - 17 includes Québec, Trois Rivières, the Jonquière etc area, and stretches into the northeastern outskirts of Montréal suburbia (for nice-looking boundaries. I care about nice-looking boundaries. ). NW - 15 includes the furthermost North, the Outaouais, most of the left bank Montréal suburbia, and Laval. SE - 13 is basically the Sherbrooke area and east. SW - 12 is mostly in the right bank Montréal suburbia but extends to Lake Memphremagog.

Ontario
ep has - Metro Toronto 22, the 905 - 32, Eastern - 17, Northern - 10, Southwestern - 22, and Simcoe - 3. They probably just didn't know where to place the Simcoe area, which is where SW, E, N, and the 905 meet. In the end I placed it with SW. I also noticed that the constituency of Pickering-Scarborough East is partly in Toronto, and moved it there, giving
Metro Toronto 23, 905 - 31, Eastern - 17, Northern - 10, Southwestern - 25.
I had to split Toronto, 905, and SW.
Originally I thought of splitting Toronto east-west, but in the end I came up with an Inner Toronto - 10 and a Scarborough - York - Etobicoke - 13 constituency (also includes Willowdale.) The one I'm graphically unhappy about is Don Valley East (with inner Toronto), but that couldn't be well helped
The 905 I ended up splitting 3 ways: One 11-member constituency east and north of Toronto (Call it...oh whatever... call it Newmarket-Oshawa or something. Or replace Newmarket with something more suitable. I don't care. Markham-Oshawa?) One 12-member constituency west and northwest of Toronto - call it Mississauga-Brampton, and one 8-member constituency Hamilton-Niagara.
The SW I split north-south, into a 14-member constituency London-Windsor, and an 11-member constituency, Simcoe-Kitchener-Lake Huron or whatever.
(So, final plan:
Eastern - 17
Inner Toronto - 10
Scarborough-York-Etobicoke - 13
xy-Oshawa - 11
Mississauga-Brampton - 12
Hamilton-Niagara - 8
London-Windsor - 14
Simcoe-Kitchener-Lake Huron 11
Northern - 10

Alberta is easy -
Edmonton - 8
Calgary  - 8
rural - 12

BC
electionprediction has Greater Vancouver & Lower Mainland 21, Interior & North 9, Vancouver Island 6. I'd noticed earlier that the listing of constituencies in GV&LM is not purely alphabetical, it seemed to be Vancouver City (5) - Inner Suburbs ( - Outer Suburbs (4) - Lower Mainland (4). I've checked the maps now though, and it's not. The Inner-Outer distinction isn't there, West Vancouver etc is just listed in the wrong place.
So I went with
Greater Vancouver - 17
Interior & Lower Mainland - 13 (I'm talking about Abbotsford etc here, in case you're confused)
Vancouver Island - 6

Now...time to do some maths...

[minionofmidas]

Montréal
Liberal 7 (-4)
Bloc 6 (-1)
Tory 3 (+3)
NDP 1 (+1)
Green 1 (+1)
The Green seat was the 18th, the 19th would have been the NDP's second.

Québec Nord-Ouest
Bloc 8 (-4)
Liberal 3 (+1)
Tory 3 (+2)
NDP 1 (+1)

Québec Nord-Est
Bloc 8 (-3)
Tory 6 (+1)
Liberal 2 (+2)
NDP 1 (+1)
i 0 (-1) ... not even if you sum all the independents, or all the others except the Greens ... all the others including the Greens would take a seat off the Liberals though. The Liberals came second in exactly one riding across this area, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.

Québec Sud-Est
Bloc 6 (-3)
Tory 5 (+1)
Liberal 2 (+2)
...and not a single one here...

Québec Sud-Ouest
Bloc 6 (-6)
Tory 3 (+3)
Liberal 2 (+2)
NDP 1 (+1)

[minionofmidas]

Interesting; what would the Manitoba numbers be if you add the I-NDP vote to the NDP vote?

Unless that's 5.2 points or more out of the 5.8% other in Man, no effect. The NDP would outpoll the Liberals, but that's irrelevant.

[minionofmidas]

By the way Al, you said that Outremont might not even be the NDP's best result in Québec. It was. But can you guess what the second best was - and their only second place here, too?

[minionofmidas]

Eastern Ontario
Tory 7 (-6)
Liberal 6 (+3)
NDP 3 (+2)
Green 1 (+1)

Inner Toronto
Liberal 5 (-2)
NDP 3
Tory 2 (+2)

Etobicoke - York - Scarborough
Liberal 8 (-5)
Tory 3 (+3)
NDP 2 (+2)

Markham - Oshawa
Liberal 6 (-1)
Tory 4
NDP 1 (+1)

Mississauga - Brampton
Liberal 6 (-3)
Tory 5 (+1)
NDP 1 (+1)

Hamilton - Niagara
Tory 3 (-1)
Liberal 3 (+2)
NDP 2 (-1)
Liberals got reamed by fptp in this little corner of the world.

London - Windsor
Tory 6 (-2)
Liberal 5 (+2)
NDP 3

Simcoe - Kitchener - Lake Huron
Tory 5 (-2)
Liberal 4
NDP 2 (+2)

Northern Ontarion
Liberal 4 (-3)
NDP 3 (+1)
Tory 3 (+2)

[minionofmidas]

By the way Al, you said that Outremont might not even be the NDP's best result in Québec. It was. But can you guess what the second best was - and their only second place here, too?

Hmm... IIRC the only two good showings outside Montreal were Hull-Aylmer (15%) and Manicouagan (12%)... so it'd have to be a Montreal riding... hmm... I'll take a guess at one of the other inner-Montreal ridings as they're the only ones where the party has a little bit of organisation... so... either Laurier-Sainte-Marie or Westmount-Ville-Marie. Both are very different ridings in most respects o/c...

Laurier.

[minionofmidas]

No time to finish this today.

[minionofmidas]

And people are seriously suggesting her as a Liberal leader already? (shakes head)

[minionofmidas]

Calgary
Tory 6 (-2)
Liberal 1 (+1)
NDP 1 (+1)

Edmonton
Tory 5 (-3)
Liberal 2 (+2)
NDP 1 (+1)

Rural Alberta
Tory 10 (-2)
NDP 1 (+1)
Liberal 1 (+1).
That's right, the NDP outpolled the Grits in rural Alberta...and pulled less than twice the Greens' share.

British Columbia Interior
Tory 7 (-4)
NDP 3 (+1)
Liberal 3 (+3)

Vancouver Island
NDP 3
Tory 2
Liberal 1. Yeah, no change! Of course it was very close with the 3rd Dipper vs the 2nd Liberal.

Greater Vancouver
Liberal 6 (-2)
Tory 6 (+2)
NDP 5

[minionofmidas]

So, using this system...
CPC 120 (-4)
LP 99 (-4)
NDP 53 (+24)
BQ 34 (-17)
Greens 2 (+2)
i 0 (-1)

[minionofmidas]

Markham - Oshawa

RENAME THIS YORK-DURHAM IMMEDIATELY, PRUDE

The problem with "York" is that "York" seems to be everywhere in and around Toronto. But I haven't got a clue what else to put for those northern and western Toronto suburbs either ... Durham - Oshawa?

[minionofmidas]

York-Durham is the best name, because York Region is north of Toronto and Durham Region is east of Toronto. Hence why I suggested it.

Yeah, but of the many seats that have York in their name, only one (York-Simcoe) is - barely - in this region; all the others are in Etobicoke - Scarborough. Hence why I'm reluctant to follow up on the suggestion...

[minionofmidas]

York-Durham is the best name, because York Region is north of Toronto and Durham Region is east of Toronto. Hence why I suggested it.

Yeah, but of the many seats that have York in their name, only one (York-Simcoe) is - barely - in this region; all the others are in Etobicoke - Scarborough. Hence why I'm reluctant to follow up on the suggestion...

Toronto hasn't been part of York in 30 years. Get over it. The York's in Toronto have been amalgamated into the city for 5 years now. York is a far better name than signalling out one town (Markham -- yes it is a town, not a city) which is not even the hub of the area. Take it from me, an expert in Canadian geography that the best name would be York-Durham.

They should rename the ones in Toronto maybe, to make it less confusing to us foreigners.

[minionofmidas]

York-Durham is the best name, because York Region is north of Toronto and Durham Region is east of Toronto. Hence why I suggested it.

Yeah, but of the many seats that have York in their name, only one (York-Simcoe) is - barely - in this region; all the others are in Etobicoke - Scarborough. Hence why I'm reluctant to follow up on the suggestion...

Toronto hasn't been part of York in 30 years. Get over it. The York's in Toronto have been amalgamated into the city for 5 years now. York is a far better name than signalling out one town (Markham -- yes it is a town, not a city) which is not even the hub of the area. Take it from me, an expert in Canadian geography that the best name would be York-Durham.

They should rename the ones in Toronto maybe, to make it less confusing to us foreigners.

In Toronto there (was) the boroughs of North York, East York, and York. The names reflect this, however if we are using bigger districts, than it's ok to use York for York-Durham. It is common in Canada to use the same word in more than one districts. For example, there is Bruce-Grey and Simcoe-Grey. 

Yeah...I'd always figured in most of these cases they were just dropping a direction (like, not calling them Bruce - Grey West and Simcoe - Grey East)