Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 31, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 28-30.

The latest three-day average confirms that Obama was unable to solidify the significant lead he briefly enjoyed among registered voters at the height of publicity surrounding his weeklong visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and Europe. Gallup tracking showed Obama's lead rising at one point as high as nine percentage points (for the average from last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday), but the presumptive Democratic nominee has been losing ground since that point.

The race has been very close before, with Obama holding a 1-point lead as recently as July 15-17, and the race tied for several days in late June. The story of the election through the summer months has been a close race that simply does not seem to want to change. Obama has generally been in the lead, and it is significant that McCain has never held even a 1-point lead among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. Still, the relative stability of the race, even in the aftermath of such a high-visibility event as Obama's foreign trip (coupled, of course, with the McCain campaign's vigorous efforts to defuse its impact) continues to suggest that it may be the conventions in late August and early September that will offer the next potential timeframe for significant and/or sustained change.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Retains Strength Among Highly Educated [30 July, 2008]

McCain does best among those with college degrees but no further education

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109156/Obama-Retains-Strength-Among-Highly-Educated.aspx

Preference for the General Election, by Education

High school or less: Obama 46%; McCain 39%

Some college: Obama 47%; McCain 42%

College graduate: Obama 45%; McCain 47%

Postgraduate: Obama 54; McCain 39%

Weekly aggregate of registered voters, July 21-27, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 1, 2008:

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

This is not much different from the results reported in Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Thursday, when the two were nearly tied with 45% for Obama and 44% for McCain. However, it is a substantial turnaround from earlier this week when Obama held a statistically significant lead coming off his high-profile trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East.

Obama and McCain were closely matched in each of the three nights of interviewing included in today's result, with neither candidate ahead by more than three percentage points. This suggests that the recent surge in voter support for Obama has truly subsided.

The contrast between Obama's recent advantage over McCain (ranging from six to nine points) and today's result is particularly notable because this is McCain's strongest showing in over a month. The last time Gallup found the race exactly tied was in late June. By contrast, in the weeks just prior to Obama's overseas trip, he had led the race by an average of four points. [/quote]

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Obama - 45% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

The results reflect a fairly steady pattern of voter sentiment over the last several days, with the two candidates either tied in an absolute sense, or in today's average, statistically tied. As has been the case all summer, the race appears to be settling back into a pattern where Obama has a small margin over McCain. The overall average margin for June and July has been three percentage points in Obama's favor, despite some brief periods of time when Obama led statistically and other times when the race was tied. Obama has been unable to sustain a significant lead over McCain, and the latter has been unable to break into even a small lead over Obama.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Voter preferences fluctuated in the time immediately after Obama's much publicized overseas trip. First, Obama's lead stretched to nine points near the conclusion of the trip, only to disappear when McCain moved into a precise tie with Obama near the end of last week. Now, the race seems to have reverted to where it has been for most of the summer, with Obama holding a narrow advantage.

If indeed the race has settled back to "the norm" for the time being, it could represent the calm before the storm. With vice presidential running mate announcements and the party conventions forthcoming in the next several weeks, enough voter preferences could be changed by these events to cause renewed movement in the overall numbers. [/quote]

[Democratic Hawk]

Independents Remain Split Between Obama and McCain [6 August, 2008]

Overall, the race expanded, slightly, than contracted in recent weeks

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109309/Independents-Remain-Split-Between-Obama-McCain.aspx

Presidential preferences for July 28 - Aug. 3, 2008

Core Consituency Groups for Obama

Blacks: Obama 86%; McCain 5%
Democrats: Obama 79%; McCain 12%
Liberals: Obama 78%; McCain 14%
No religious affiliation: Obama 67%; McCain 24%
Hispanics: Obama 57%; McCain 30%
18-to-29-year-olds: Obama 56%; McCain 35%
Moderates: Obama 51%; McCain 35%
Postgraduates: Obama 55%; McCain 39%
Women: Obama 48%; McCain 39%

Core Constituency Groups for McCain

Republicans: McCain 84%; Obama 10%
Conservatives: McCain 68%; Obama 22%
Whites: McCain 51%; Obama 38%
65 years-and-older: McCain 46%; Obama 37%
Men: McCain 48%; Obama 41%
Protestants: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

Competitive Constituency Groups [change on previous week]

Independents: McCain 43% (+4); Obama 40% (-4)
Catholics: McCain 46% (+6); Obama 42% (-7)
30-to-49-year-olds: McCain 46% (+1); Obama 44% (-1)
50-to-64-year-olds: Obama 46% (-2); McCain 43% (+1)
"Some college": Obama 45% (-2); McCain 45% (+3)
College graduates: Obama 45% (nc); McCain 45% (-2)
No College: McCain 44% (+5); Obama 41% (-5)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results, based on Aug. 4-6 polling, are essentially the same as Gallup has found all week, and suggest that voter preferences have stabilized for the moment. Near the tail end of Obama's overseas trip his lead expanded to nine points, but in the days following the trip's conclusion McCain erased that lead and moved into a tie with Obama. Since then, Obama has reestablished a modest advantage over McCain.

From a long-term perspective, Obama's 3-point margin is consistent with what he has enjoyed since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Today's result, based on Aug. 5-7 interviewing, is identical to where the race stood in Thursday's report, and marks the fifth straight day that McCain and Obama have been separated by between two and four points in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking poll.

It thus appears that Obama has recaptured a slight lead over McCain after essentially falling into a tie with his likely Republican opponent for a short period last week.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (-1))

These results are based on a three-day rolling average of interviews conducted Aug. 6-8, with Gallup polling roughly 900 registered voters nationwide each night. The nightly numbers for each of these nights have been similar, suggesting preferences are stable.

Generally speaking, the structure of the race remains as it has been since early June, with Obama holding a modest advantage over McCain.

Obama has begun a weeklong vacation in Hawaii. It is unclear what impact his absence from the campaign trail will have. On one hand, the country's attention may be consumed by the Olympic games and the candidates might not get much attention anyway. On the other hand, to the extent voters are tuned into politics, McCain will have the stage to himself.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Obama is on vacation in Hawaii, and while McCain continues to make campaign appearances, many Americans are watching the Olympics and presumably not focused heavily on the presidential campaign at this time. Indeed, the current three percentage point Obama advantage is right at the average gap Gallup Poll Daily tracking has measured all summer so far.

The one political news story attracting significant attention over the last two days has been former Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards' public confession that he had an extramarital affair. Given the remarkable stability of the presidential race this summer so far, it is unlikely that the Edwards situation will have any impact on voters' preferences for Obama or McCain. The most reasonable hypothesis is that the next potential opportunity for substantial change in voter preferences will come with the vice-presidential announcements and the back-to-back Democratic and Republican conventions.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, August 11, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (-1)

The pattern of Americans' support for the two presumptive presidential nominees has shown little substantive change so far in August. There have been eight Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports based on interviewing conducted entirely in the month of August, and in each of these Obama has received either 46% or 47% of the support of registered voters. McCain has received between 42% and 44% support. These estimates of support for the two candidates show no significant change, a finding that is not surprising given the attention being given to the Olympics by voters, the fact that Obama is on vacation, and the general lack of major news generating events from the presidential campaign front.

The dramatic news of the sudden war which erupted in the Republic of Georgia has certainly been prominently displayed in newspapers, on television, and on Internet news sites, but the probability that these events will significantly change the U.S. presidential race is most likely low.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 42% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Gender Gap Among White Voters Bigger Now Than in 2004 [13 August, 2008]

Obama loses to McCain among white men; ties him among white women

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109456/Gender-Gap-Among-White-Voters-Bigger-Now-Than-2004.aspx

Gender Gap Among Non-Hispanic Whites (2008)

Men: Obama 35%; McCain 55%
Women: Obama 44%; McCain 44%

Men (by education):

High school or less: Obama 37%; McCain 53%
Some college: Obama 30%; McCain 59%
College graduate: Obama 33%; McCain 59%
Postgraduate: Obama 44%; McCain 50%

Women (by education):

High school or less: Obama 39%; McCain 46%
Some college: Obama 42%; McCain 47%
College graduate: Obama 48%; McCain 44%
Postgraduate: Obama 58%; McCain 33%

Aggregate of Gallup Poll Daily Tracking, Aug. 1-11, 2008

Gender Gap Among Non-Hispanic Whites, 2004 Presidential Election

Men: Kerry 40%; Bush 56%
Women: Kerry 42%; Bush 51%

CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, Oct. 29-31, 2004

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 43% (+1)

These data are based on Aug. 11-13 polling, and reflect a stable period for voter preferences. Since the beginning of August, Obama's support been either 46% or 47% for all but one day of Gallup tracking (48% in Aug. 10-12 polling) and McCain's has been 42% or 43% for all but one day (44% in Aug. 3-5 polling).

Although McCain has continued to campaign in battleground states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, Obama has been on vacation in Hawaii and the presidential campaign has largely been overshadowed in the news by the Russia-Georgia conflict and the summer Olympics.

The 3-point Obama advantage matches the average in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

[Democratic Hawk]

Encouraging as six-point lead for Obama was yesterday, his numbers can go down as well as up, so spare me the cock-a-hoopedness. Euphoria can, sadly, all too often be followed by pessimism

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 15, 2008

Obama - 44% (-2)
McCain - 44% (+1)

The Aug. 12-14 polling shows a slight dip in Obama's support, which had ranged between 46% and 48% (averaging 47%) in August. McCain has averaged 43% support among registered voters so far in August. Thus, the closer margin seen in today's results is due more to movement away from Obama than toward McCain. Twelve percent of registered voters now say they are undecided or supporting another candidate, which is on the high end of what Gallup has measured this year.

Voter preferences have been closely divided between Obama and McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling, underscoring the notion that the race has tightened for the moment. This could to some degree reflect Obama's absence from the campaign trail while he vacations in Hawaii. He will return to the spotlight over the next few weeks upon naming his vice presidential running mate and accepting his party's nomination for president at the Democratic national convention, and both events have typically been associated with a bounce in support for a presidential candidate.

On Thursday, the Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns announced an agreement to put her name into nomination for president at the convention. Given that the race has been tight for the past few days, it is unlikely this announcement is related to any change in Obama's support.

Since early June when Obama clinched the nomination, he has averaged a three percentage point advantage over McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

[Democratic Hawk]

What's the matter with Gallup today ? No Poll ?

Yes, it came in moments ago

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Obama - 45% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama and McCain have been closely matched in each the past four individual days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, including in the Aug. 13-15 polling represented in today's three-day rolling average. Thus there appears to be a degree of stability to voter preferences in recent days.

which is better than yesterday

[Democratic Hawk]

What's with the raging discussion between Carl and Dan anyways? I'm minded to rename the thread

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Veterans Solidy Back McCain [19 August, 2008]

Prefer McCain to Obama by 56% to 34%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109654/Veterans-Solidly-Back-McCain.aspx

Candidate Choice Among Military Veterans

McCain: 56%
Obama: 34%
Other: 1%
No opinion: 10%

Party Affiliation

All U.S. adults: 37% Republican/Lean Republican; 48% Democratic/Lean Democratic

Military veterans: 47% Republican/Lean Republican; 39% Democratic/Lean Democratic

Candidate Vote Choice Based on Veteran Status Among Republicans/Republican-Leaners

Veteran: McCain 89%; Obama 6%

Non-veteran: McCain 83%; Obama 10%

Candidate Vote Choice Based on Veteran Status Among Democrarts/Demcratic-Leaners

Veteran: McCain 17%; Obama 75%

Non-veteran: McCain 11%; Obama 81%

Aug. 5-17 Gallup Poll Daily tracking

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday - August 19, 2008[/b]

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

The current status of the presidential race in many ways represents the "calm before the storm", as the two candidates gear up for one of the most intensive two weeks of campaigning in recent memory. The Democrats will begin with Obama's pending announcement of his vice presidential candidate, followed by the Democratic convention beginning next Monday in Denver. Then, in short order, the Republican John McCain will announce his vice presidential candidate and the GOP convention will get underway in St. Paul, Minn., on Sept. 1.

At the moment, the race has tightened slightly, with Obama holding on to slim one percentage point margin over McCain. Based on past history, Obama should expect a bounce from his vice presidential announcement this week and the convention next week. McCain, of course, should also expect a counter bounce thereafter, settings expectations for what may turn out to be some significant ups and downs in candidate support in the weeks to come.

[Democratic Hawk]

McCain Still Dominant Among the Highly Religious [20 August, 2008]

Key question if strength of McCain's support, turnout

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109678/McCain-Still-Dominant-Among-Highly-Religious.aspx

Support for Presidential Nomination Candidates, by Church Attendance

Weekly: Obama 37%; McCain 53%

Nearly weekly/Monthly: Obama 43%; McCain 47%

Seldom/Never: Obama 54%; McCain 34%

Among Non-Hispanic whites:

Weekly: Obama 25%; McCain 65%

Nearly weekly/Monthly: Obama 34%; McCain 56%

Seldom/Never: Obama 48%; McCain 39%

Support for Presidential Nomination Candidates, by Importance of Religion in Respondent's Lives

Yes, important: Obama 41%; McCain 49%

No, not important: Obama 55%; McCain 33%

Weekly aggregate based on registered voters, Aug. 11-17, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

The Marriage Gap in Support for McCain, Obama [21 August, 2008]

Marriage gap reflects underlying differences in composition of the parties

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109741/Marriage-Gap-Support-McCain-Obama.aspx

Preference for the General Election, by Marital Status

Married: Obama 38%; McCain 51%

Unmarried: Obama 55%; McCain 33%

By Gender and Marital Status:

Married men: Obama 35%; McCain 56%
Unmarried men: Obama 52%; McCain 37%
Married women: Obama 42%; McCain 46%
Unmarried women: Obama 57%; McCain 30%

By Marital Status and Age:

18 to 34 married: Obama 43%; McCain 47%
18 to 34 unmarried: Obama 63%; McCain 27%
35 to 54 married: Obama 38%; McCain 52%
35 to 54 unmarried: Obama 56%; McCain 33%
55+ married: Obama 36%; McCain 52%
55+ unmarried: Obama 48%; McCain 38%

Marital Status by Political Party

Republicans: Married 64%; Unmarried 36%
Independents: Married 50%; Unmarried 50%
Democrats: Married 44%; Unmarried 55%

Gallup Poll Daily tracking, Aug. 1-19, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday - August 23, 2008[/u]

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Today's result, based on Aug. 20-22 interviewing, represents the last Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential race based on interviewing conducted entirely before Obama's selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate was announced early this morning.

The full immediate impact of that decision on voters will not be reflected in Gallup's continuous three-day rolling average results until Tuesday, however it will start to enter the data in Sunday's report. A recent analysis of the impact of past vice-presidential selections on voter preferences by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones, suggests a small but short-lived bounce can generally be expected.

Obama has not held a statistically significant lead over McCain in any Gallup Poll Daily tracking report since Aug. 13 -- or 10 reporting days. This is the longest stretch with Obama leading by no more than three percentage points since before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

While Obama would clearly hope the publicity from the upcoming Democratic National Convention will help him break out of the present deadlock -- and historical poll trends show a five point bounce in support for a presidential candidate is typical after each nominating convention -- the fact that neither presidential candidate in the 2004 election received a significant convention bounce puts a question mark over the inevitability of that happening in 2008.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Lags in Democratic Support [22 August, 2008]

Democrats' lead on party ID greater than Obama's lead over McCain

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109774/Obama-Lags-Democratic-Support.aspx

Dave