Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Obama's lead has been as great as seven percentage points over the past month, but has averaged only three points thus far in July, identical to his average lead for the month of June.

The fact that Obama has consistently held an advantage over McCain among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since early June suggests that he could very well win the election were it held today (depending on voter turnout patterns). The important question, however, and one addressed in detail Monday on Gallup.com, is whether his consistently narrow lead at this point in mid-summer bodes well for him in November.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108676/July-Leader-Lost-Last-Competitive-US-Elections.aspx

In essence, the Gallup analysis finds that races that appear closely contested at the start of the summer tend to stay close for the duration of the campaign, up to and including Election Day. This describes the 2004, 2000, 1980, and 1960 elections.

The exceptions to this are years when, after being closely matched in early to mid-July, one of the candidates jumps into the lead following his party's national convention over the summer. In these cases -- including Bill Clinton in 1992, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Richard Nixon in 1968 -- the candidate getting the big boost out of his convention ultimately won.

Come on Barack get that boost at Denver

[Democratic Hawk]

There may not be any major movement until after the conventions; though the Veep choices could see them bounce a little here and there

Right now, it's not too difficult to conceive young, dynamic, fresh, visionary Obama receiving a substantial bounce post-Denver. Not so sure about the lackluster McCain, who could lose ground post-St Paul as his acceptance speech falls flat

I don't buy the opinion that Obama should be ahead by 15 to 20 points. He is yet to cross, as Charlie Cook puts it, the "acceptability threshold". The time for Obama to address the "risk" factor that comes with insurgent candidates will be in the head to head debates with McCain; and, as we know, Obama can be underwhelming in debates. Hope he's got his best Devil's Advocate out there with him

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gaining Among Voters With Less Formal Education [9 July, 2008]

Has erased deficit to McCain

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108709/Obama-Gaining-Among-Voters-Less-Formal-Education.aspx

1. High school educations or less

Mar 2008: Obama 40%; McCain 47%
Apr 2008: Obama 41%; McCain 45%
May 2008: Obama 43%; McCain 46%

Jun 2008: Obama 43%; McCain 43%. By subgroup:

Men: Obama 42%; McCain 46%
Women: 44%; McCain 40%
White: Obama 34%; McCain 51%
Nonwhite: Obama 73%; McCain 17%

2. Some college: Obama 46%; McCain 44%

3. College graduates with non-post graduate education: Obama 47%; McCain 45%

4. Postgraduate eduction: Obama 43%; McCain 40%. By gender:

Men: Obama 46%; McCain 47%
Women: Obama 61%; McCain 32%

Monthy aggregated Gallup Poll Daily tracking data

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, July 11, 2008

Obama - 48% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-1)

Obama has typically held a modest advantage over McCain since early June. The six percentage point lead in the latest results, based on July 8-10 polling, ranks among the presumptive Democratic nominee's bigger leads, just one point shy of a high seven-point lead in June 7-9 polling.

In the last two weeks, Obama's share of the vote has ranged between 46% and 48%, while McCain's has ranged from 42% to 44%. So while preferences have not shifted dramatically, Obama enjoys a larger lead in the latest report because his support is now at the upper end of his recent range while McCain's is at the lower end of his.

The numbers for the last three individual nights of polling have been consistent -- with Obama's advantage over McCain ranging from four to seven points -- further reinforcing the notion that preferences at this point of the campaign are quite stable.

[Democratic Hawk]

Fewer Americans See McCain, Obama Views as "About Right" [11 July, 2008]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108775/Fewer-Americans-See-McCain-Obama-Views-About-Right.aspx

Do you think John McCain's political views are too conservative, about right or too liberal?

USA Today/Gallup polls, June 15-19, 2008, [and Feb. 8-10, 2008]

Too conservative: 40% [30%]. Among Republicans 20% [10%]; Independents 41% [33%]; Democrats 57% [43%]

About right: 37% [42%]. Among Republicans 60% [63%]; Independents 34% [42%]; Democrats 21% [26%]

Too liberal: 15% [20%]

Do you think Barack Obama's political views are too conservative, about right or too liberal?

USA Today/Gallup polls, June 15-19, 2008, [and Feb. 8-10, 2008]

Too conservative: 9% [8%]

About right: 43% [47%]. Among Republicans 15% [28%]; Independents 44% [49%]; Democrats 68% [58%]

Too liberal: 40% [37%]. Among Republicans 75% [65%]; Independents 36% [33%]; Democrats 15% [20%]

How concerned are you that John McCain and Barack Obama may be too closely aligned with people who hold radical political views?

USA Today / Gallup poll, June 15-19, 2008

Very concerned: McCain 17%; Obama 28%
Somewhat concerned: McCain 25%; Obama 24%
Not too concerned: McCain 30%; Obama 23%
Not at all concerned: McCain 27%; Obama 24%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 14, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Maintaining Support Among Liberals [16 July, 2008]

Support may be increasing slightly

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108859/Obama-Maintaining-Support-Among-Liberals.aspx

Presidential Trial Heat Vote, By Party and Ideology, July 7-13 Gallup Daily Tracking

Liberal Democrats: Obama 92%; McCain 5%

Moderate Democrats: Obama 79%; McCain 10%

Conservative Democrats: Obama 68%; McCain 20%

Moderate/Liberal Republicans: Obama 20%; McCain 73%

Conservative Republicans: Obama 6%; McCain 90%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, July 18, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama still holds a slight edge, but with just 45% of registered voters saying they would vote for him in November, versus 44% for McCain. McCain's current support, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 15-17, falls at the upper end of the 42% to 44% range seen for him since late June.

The dip in support for Obama to 45% from 46% in Thursday's report and from 47% earlier this week (when he held a four percentage point lead over McCain) is not statistically significant. It will be important to see whether today's figures are maintained for several days before it can be determined that the race has narrowed to a virtual tie.

[Democratic Hawk]

Again, the large number of undecideds (13 in this poll) is remarkable, if not unique for Gallup.

I'm guessing a lot of traditionally Democratic working class whites and suburban moderates who are sick of Repubs and would normally be going for the Dem nominee are staying undecided.

The undecideds could well be waiting to see whether or not Obama crosses their "acceptability threshold" and if he does they'll likely break his way and he wins; but if not ...

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Only then it was Democrat vs Democrat ... I'm far from certain but I'd guess that, nationally, those Democratic primary voters who were most concerned about the economy favored Clinton

Far from this race being Obama's to lose, it's Obama's to win and he's not there yet because, rightly or wrongly, McCain's standing is, well, higher than that of his president and party. He has a compelling story to tell of war heroism (not that it mattered in 2000); as well as the reputation for being a "maverick" - whatever

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

That it is. From gallup:

These results are based on July 18-20 polling, including two days since Obama began his much publicized overseas trip to visit the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Europe. It is unclear at this point whether the trip will boost Obama's poll standing, but his performance in Sunday interviewing was one of his stronger in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and his current six percentage point lead is among the largest he has held over McCain to date. Tuesday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted since Obama began his trip abroad.

Since Obama clinched the Democratic presidential nomination in early June, he has typically held an advantage over McCain, which has averaged three points, but been as large as seven points.

The current results also mark the first time in more than three weeks that McCain's share of the trial heat vote has not been in the 42% to 44% range. In fact, it matches a June 7-9 reading as McCain's lowest level of support since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in March.

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They've tended to be higher at weekends; but whether or not weekend polling is any more or less 'accurate' than weekday polling I don't know

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 22, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-2)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Obama performed above par with voters in two of the last four days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, spanning a period of heavy news coverage of his overseas trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East. This resulted in the race widening slightly to a difference of six percentage points in Monday's report based on interviewing conducted July 18-20. However, interviewing Monday night showed a closer race, suggesting that the question of how much bounce Obama may receive from his trip is still an open one.

Longer term, the race has been quite stable. Obama's current 3-point lead in the race is nearly identical to the average lead he has held over McCain thus far in July, and matches his 3-point advantage in the race for the month of June.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 23, 2008:

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

The big news from Gallup Poll Daily tracking is the continuing stability of this race. Many observers (and based on its reaction, the McCain campaign itself) have hypothesized that Obama could have the chance of making a major breakthrough in voter sentiment as a result of the streaming video and photos and news coverage of the Illinois senator with U.S. troops, military commanders, and foreign leaders. As of Tuesday night's interviewing, however, this has not materialized.

Perhaps the signal event of Obama's overseas trip will be a forthcoming speech before tens of thousands in Germany later this week. It remains to be seen whether or not news coverage of this speech will alter the support patterns among American voters.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 24, 2008:

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Obama's much anticipated overseas trip enters its sixth day, but so far it has not meaningfully affected the choice for president voters would make if the election were held today. Obama has held a modest advantage over McCain for all but a few days (in which the candidates were precisely tied) since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

Today, Obama will give what is considered to be the major speech of his trip in Berlin, Germany. McCain was planning to give a major speech of his own today from an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, but that had to be canceled due to the after-effects of Hurricane Dolly.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gains Over McCain in Swing States Since June [23 July, 2008]

Gap has moved at least 3 points in his favor in all state groups since June

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109036/Obama-Gains-Over-McCain-Swing-States-Since-June.aspx

Barack Obama - John McCain Vote Preference in Red, Blue and Purple States

Based on Gallup Poll Daily Tracking March - May

Blue (Democratic) states: Obama 53% (52%); McCain 37% (39%)

Purple (competitive) states: Obama 48% (46%); McCain 40% (44%)

Red (Republican) states: Obama 40% (39%); McCain 50% (52%)

And he's winning Britons, French and Germans by a landslide

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109018/Britons-French-Germans-Solidly-Back-Obama.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, July 25, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+2)
McCain - 41% (-2)

Obama's current lead matches his lead in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling average for July 18-20, Friday through Sunday of last week. A six percentage point lead for Obama, also measured at several other points in July and June, is the highest he has enjoyed since he had a 7-point advantage over McCain in early June (which, in turn, was Obama's largest lead of the campaign).

The key question at this particular point in the campaign concerns the impact, if any, of this unusual week during which Obama conducted his highly-publicized world tour while McCain attempted to grab back part of the media spotlight by conducting domestic events and taking the opportunity to make critical comments about his presumed Democratic opponent.

European residents certainly evince a strong sentiment in favor of Obama winning the U.S. presidency -- much higher than the pro-Obama sentiment here at home. Gallup polling shows that residents of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom by very large margins would rather see Obama win instead of McCain. Residents of the U.S. have been favoring Obama by just about three points. The key is the degree to which the sentiments of European residents might "rub off" on U.S. voters as they have the opportunity to absorb news coverage of Obama's trip.

In a broad sense, there are several ways that Obama's European trip could affect U.S. voters:

1. Obama's trip could end up being the basis for a shift in voter preferences to the point where he pulls into a sustained lead over McCain. This could occur on a delayed basis. It's even possible that Obama's trip, while not having an immediate effect on tracking numbers, could lay the mental groundwork in the minds of voters to the point where they are more open to an Obama presidency at some point in the future (such as the Democratic convention). In particular, this might occur if his trip removes doubts voters might have about his ability to handle international affairs.

2. Voters could simply not pay much attention to the trip, and its net impact could end up being very minor. The data so far this summer have shown little significant movement in voter numbers, suggesting that voters may, to some degree, be tuning out the election coverage regardless of the candidates' efforts to stimulate interest.

3. Voters could pay attention to Obama's trip, but decide that the trip, per se, did not demonstrate anything that would cause a fundamental shift in their voting preferences. While the news media have made a great deal out of the trip, it's conceivable that it may not appear to be significant to the majority of voters.

4. Voters could pay attention to the trip, but shift support away from Obama if they viewed the trip or the way in which Obama conducted himself in a more negative light. Conservative commentators -- and of course the McCain campaign itself -- have certainly been arguing that there are negatives associated with the trip, including a speculation of presumptiveness that a presidential nominee would make a speech more appropriate for an actual president, the criticism that the content of his speeches did not contain anything new, or that the real issues facing the voters are domestic, not international.

The evidence is certainly mixed at this point as to which of these scenarios may end up being closest to reality. Obama's 6-point lead over the past weekend initially suggested that he was perhaps on the cusp of a jump in support as a result of (or at the least coincident with) his trip. But that lead was not sustained, and the Gallup averages reported in the middle of this week have been in and around the average 3-point advantage Obama has maintained for the last month and a half.

Now, on the basis of a strong showing in Thursday night's Gallup interviewing, Obama is back to a 6-point margin over McCain. On Thursday Obama made his highly-anticipated speech to a crowd estimated to be larger than 200,000 in Berlin, Germany, and it is not implausible that it might have affected enough voters to move his overall advantage in the horse race tracking a few points. The drop off in Obama's support earlier this week, however, suggests caution in assuming that the trip will have any lasting impact on the structure of the race.

This means that the jury is still out until the tracking results through the weekend and into next week are monitored carefully. To signify a real difference in the support patterns of voters in the U.S., the data would either need to show a sustained 6-point plus lead for Obama over a number of days, or conversely, a sustained pattern by which John McCain moves into the lead (something he has not done since early June) and sustains that lead.

Previous election year polling shows that the conventions have a high (but not 100%) probability of shaking up the race. The impact of events prior to the conventions is certainly more difficult to pin down. As noted, the structure of the race this year appears to have snapped into place in early June after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic Party's nomination, and it simply has not changed much since. Whether or not it will change at this juncture remains to be seen.

[Democratic Hawk]

Let's go for double digits!!!!

Well, if it's gonna happen it will happen tomorrow (given that weekend data, apparently, overstates Obama's lead).

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 28, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

Obama gained ground over McCain in each of the last three tracking updates, but today's average shows no further gains and a slight drop of Obama's percent of the vote from 49% to 48%. Obama's progress was coincident with his highly visible foreign tour, and it is not unreasonable to expect that his lead over McCain may settle back to a margin closer to what Gallup has measured for most of the summer as the impact of the trip fades. At the same time, McCain and his surrogates have engaged in sharp attacks on Obama in their attempt to blunt the impact of his trip, and some of that effort could have an effect on voters. The basic structure of the race so far this summer has been remarkably stable, and it remains to be seen if either candidate can alter it for a sustained period of time before the conventions in late August and early September.

Slight decline in Obama's lead now that Thursday's sample is out of the tracking but this is, of course, the full weekend polling data. It will be interesting to see how things stand Thursday, which will comprise weekday data from Mon thru' Weds

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, July 25, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

I think today is Monday, July 28.    They are starting to run together.

Corrected

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Not too worried. Obama, obviously, had a good Thursday (given his lead jumped from +2 to +6 in Friday's tracking) and it's data has exited from today's tracking

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 29, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 41% (+1)

Gallup Poll Daily tracking showed Obama gaining ground over McCain at the end of last week near the culmination of Obama's highly visible foreign tour. That "bounce" seems to be ebbing now, and the current evidence suggests that Obama has not been able to maintain or expand his 9-point lead as measured in Gallup Poll Daily tracking for July 24-26 -- at least in the short-term.

Obama has generally led McCain by a consistent, but small, margin for much of the summer. There have been the expected daily fluctuations in the size of that margin, including Obama's recent gain, but nothing so far to suggest any lasting disruption in the structure of the race.

[Democratic Hawk]

Once the weekend polling leaves the sample, it will be back to a 2-3 point race, where the race is right now.

And if not

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 30, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 27-29.

The percentage of voters favoring Obama for president swelled from 45% in July 21-23 tracking, conducted at the outset of Obama's weeklong visit to Europe and the Middle East, to 49% in July 24-26 interviewing conducted at the height of publicity surrounding the tour. At the same time, McCain's support ebbed from 43% to 40%, and the percentage of undecided voters fell from 7% to 4%.

With Obama now back on U.S. soil and filling less of the nightly news, voter preferences have nearly completely reverted to their pre-trip levels.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 30, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 27-29.

The percentage of voters favoring Obama for president swelled from 45% in July 21-23 tracking, conducted at the outset of Obama's weeklong visit to Europe and the Middle East, to 49% in July 24-26 interviewing conducted at the height of publicity surrounding the tour. At the same time, McCain's support ebbed from 43% to 40%, and the percentage of undecided voters fell from 7% to 4%.

With Obama now back on U.S. soil and filling less of the nightly news, voter preferences have nearly completely reverted to their pre-trip levels.

And this is still with the weekend numbers partially included.

I'm just hoping McCain taking the low road, going all negative, backfires now. I'm not holding my breath however. McCain can do no wrong !

Dave