Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, October 5th

Obama: 50 (nc)
Mccain: 43 (+1)

This is the ninth consecutive Gallup Poll Daily report showing Obama leading by a significant margin, tying Obama's record frontrunner streak of nine days around the time of the Democratic National Convention in late August and early September.

Today's result includes two full days of interviewing after the Oct. 2 vice presidential debate between Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Biden, as well as after the news on Friday, Oct. 3, that Congress had passed a revised economic rescue plan to help alleviate the Wall Street financial crisis.

The race has been slightly closer on both of these two individual days (Oct. 3-4) than the previous two days. Obama held particularly large leads over McCain from Oct. 1-2, possibly resulting from Americans' focus on the Wall Street financial crisis and congressional rescue plan dominating the news at that time. Since then, support for Obama has remained about the same, at the 49% to 50% level, while support for McCain has increased slightly, with an associated decline in the percentage of undecided voters.

Monday's report will be the first based entirely on interviews conducted after the vice presidential faceoff and, as such, will be an important indicator of whether Palin's debate performance and, or any possible easing of public anxiety over the rescue package since Friday, may have benefited the Republican ticket.

[Democratic Hawk]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

Nothing whatsoever happened to justify any trend to McCain. 159,000 jobs were reported lost Friday

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

is it time to talk about the 'Biden Bump' it appears that ever tracking poll has moved towards Obama 1 point since the debate day.

 

Probably. Biden was a class act in that debate.

Well Joe Biden sure as hell knows staid ol' Johnny one hell of a lot better than Saintly Sarah. Whenever she 1) defended Johnny and 2) discussed her own record as mayor and governor in Alaska, the response from the CNN panel of Ohio undecideds was flat

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Voters See Economic Plans as Net Plus for Obama

McCain economic pln more likely to repel than attact voters

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111037/Voters-See-Economic-Plans-Net-Plus-Obama.aspx

Effect of Candidates' Economic and Tax Plans On Vote

Obama: More likely 43%; No difference 20%; Less likely 33% (net +10)
McCain: More likely 30%; No difference 21%; Less likely 44% (net -14)

Effect of Candidates' Positions on Iraq Waw of Vote

Obama (opposed war): More likely 43%; No difference 26%; Less likely 31% (net +12)
McCain (supported war) More likely 32%; No difference 27%; Less likely 40% (net -8)

Effect of Candidates' Positions on the Iraq Surge

Obama (opposed surge): More likely 32%; No difference 29%; Less likely 38% (net -6)
McCain (supported surge): More likely 38%; No difference 30%; Less likely 30% (net +8)

Effect of Candidates' Race on Vote

Obama: More likely 9%; No difference 85%; Less likely 6% (net +3)
McCain: More likely 7%; No difference 87%; Less likely 6% (net +1)

Effect of Candidates' Age on Vote

Obama: More likely 24%; No difference 67%; Less likely 9% (net +15)
McCain: More likely 7%; No difference 55%; Less likely 38% (net -31)

Meanwhile, Biden helps Obama (net +18); but Palin doesn't help McCain (net -8)

Gallup Poll, Oct. 3-5, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain.

Nearly all interviews in today's report were conducted before Tuesday night's town hall style debate in Nashville. Any movement in voter preferences as a result of this debate will be apparent in coming days.

Voter preferences seem to have stabilized for the moment, as Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling.

Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor").

So, as of October 8, Obama currently leads, in tracking polls*, McCain from +1 to +11

Average lead: 6% (rounded)

* Batteground (+4), Diageo-Hotline (+1), Gallup (+11), Rasmussen (+6), Research 2000 (+10) and Zogby (+2)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

yeah, well this race has been over for 3 weeks now

It's not like they are all Obama +11 (unfortunately)

[Democratic Hawk]

Here are some findings from Gallup's tracking for week (Oct. 6-12). I've been monitoring certain constituency groups for a while.

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Election%2bTrends%2bby%2bGroup.aspx

Core constituency groups for Obama include blacks, Democrats, Hispanics, 18-to-29-year-olds, postgraduates and women. He leads McCain by 88, 78, 29, 34, 23 and 14 respectively

Core constituency groups for McCain include Republicans, whites, 65-years-and-older and men. McCain leads Obama by 78 and 4, yet Obama now leads McCain by 1 among seniors and by 5 among men

Obama, indeed, leads McCain among all age groups (30-to-49, by 5; 50-to-64 by 9) and all education groups (no college, by 11; "some college", by 5; college graduates, by 6) and among Independents, by 10

Regionally, in the East, Obama leads by 19; in the Midwest, Obama leads by 20 and in the West, Obama leads by 8. McCain leads Obama in the South by 2

In "blue", Obama leads McCain by 21; in "red", McCain leads Obama by 4 and in "purple" states, Obama leads McCain by 17

There's a whole range of other demographic tracking data, for example, Obama leads among liberals and moderates, McCain among conservatives, etc

This data is for registered voters and last week Obama , aggregately, polled 50% and McCain 40%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Here are some findings from Gallup's tracking for week (Oct. 6-12). I've been monitoring certain constituency groups for a while.

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Election%2bTrends%2bby%2bGroup.aspx

Core constituency groups for Obama include blacks, Democrats, Hispanics, 18-to-29-year-olds, postgraduates and women. He leads McCain by 88, 78, 29, 34, 23 and 14 respectively

Core constituency groups for McCain include Republicans, whites, 65-years-and-older and men. McCain leads Obama by 78 and 4, yet Obama now leads McCain by 1 among seniors and by 5 among men

Obama, indeed, leads McCain among all age groups (30-to-49, by 5; 50-to-64 by 9) and all education groups (no college, by 11; "some college", by 5; college graduates, by 6) and among Independents, by 10

Regionally, in the East, Obama leads by 19; in the Midwest, Obama leads by 20 and in the West, Obama leads by 8. McCain leads Obama in the South by 2

In "blue", Obama leads McCain by 21; in "red", McCain leads Obama by 4 and in "purple" states, Obama leads McCain by 17

There's a whole range of other demographic tracking data, for example, Obama leads among liberals and moderates, McCain among conservatives, etc

This data is for registered voters and last week Obama , aggregately, polled 50% and McCain 40%

Dave

Recent Obama Surge Evident Among Men, Less Educated (16 October, 2008)

Independents have also swung strongly to Obama

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111205/Recent-Obama-Surge-Evident-Among-Men-Less-Educated.aspx

[Democratic Hawk]

Drudge has the headline "SHOCK POLL: OBAMA 49 McCAIN 47"

Oh Drudge... lol.

He's right, so far as he goes.  LOL.

McCain moving up a point from yesterday is a ''shock poll''?

The likely voter one is.  I think the real story is the closing across polls.

Movement of a point in Gallup or Rasmussen is not shocking. Now if McCain actually took the lead back in either of these polls, that would be pretty surprising.

An 11 point to 2 point difference in a week is "shocking" unless you are one of us and follow the polls closely.

That 11-point difference is now a 6-point difference, J. J. Registered voters remember

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Bleh

Don't be so downcast, Ronnie, McCain has closed in on Obama's lead on the likely voter, traditional model. If you're feeling down take a look at Zogby

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

And Drudge finally grabs the number.  Took them long enough!

Matt must be j**king off when numbers like these come along

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

While I'm sure many would love to see that happen, I think it is premature to start crowning someone the winner.  Polling, especially in 2008, is as reliable as a used car from the classifieds.  

Dave.... seriously, breathe.

I'm worried by the degree to which McCain is closing, and will be beyond horrfied if McCain/Palin actually manages to have won... but there is a lot of unpredictable elements, we simply don't know.

Also to suggest McCain/Palin is more likely to win than not is still, at this point, pretty silly... let alone saying they have 100% chance of victory.

Lets just say a wave of fatalistic, pessimism has afflicted me. The pragmatic , albeit liberal-leaning, Christian Democrat that is Sen. Obama is being smeared something atrociously

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Dave, don't get pessimistic yet.  When Obama slips under 50%, you should worry.

I'd rather not be worrying at all. Competence is my litmus and I have way more confidence in the pragmatic , albeit liberal-leaning, Christian Democratic Obama, on economic and quallity of life issues, who has little in common philosophically with George W Bush, than I do McCain, well who has much, unfortunately, in common with the presidential equivalent of a dogsh**t sandwich and a wretched record to boot!

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

That's exactly what Obama is on economic and quality of life issues

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On social issues, I'd say Obama is liberal-leaning

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

That's exactly what Obama is on economic and quality of life issues

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On social issues, I'd say Obama is liberal-leaning

Dave

I think the point is you keep saying the same thing over and over and it's gotten almost as annoying as that "after you the deluge" stuff from J. J. Yes, we know why you support Obama and don't support McCain.

I've just about had it with Obama being vilified and smeared by the Right and when I see McCain closing, it tells me that those tactics could be working

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

RV
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46% (-1)


Tightening my ass...

Maybe Dave can take Bob Dylan's advice and take the rag away from his face now.

I'd be a lot more happier if those registered voters who give Obama a comfortable 9-point lead turned out and voted

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, October 31st, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (+2)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-2)

Not very often I nowadays but this warrants one! Then Planet Zogby struck ...........

[Democratic Hawk]

... and you take Zogby seriously?

I may if the other pollsters point to Friday 31st showing a similar trend. That said The Drudge points out that the three-day average is holding steady

Nate's got it up now but points out that one day results can be highly volatile and the Zogster uses nonsensical party weighting

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]