State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[DINGO Joe]

Sen. Grassley may live in this district.  If not, then very near.  It has 16,000 R 8,000 D and 15,000 I voters.

This race is happening because the Incumbent R and Sen Majority Leader was caught kissing a lobbyist who was not his wife.

[DINGO Joe]

Absentees in Hardin Co 708--443 Sweeney

[DINGO Joe]

Let's hope that Freese lives in Grundy and owns a small business in Butler...

She does live in Grundy but it's Dutch and votes 62-38

[DINGO Joe]

Does this district include Ames? Even if the district has a safe R history it's sad to see a D candidate get flushed in a district with a major university in it.

No, it covers the South and East part of the county, but not Ames. 

Here's a link to a district map

http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/5071

[DINGO Joe]

Yeah the MS one is tonight, however, it's in Mississippi and about halfway between Jackson and Memphis, so good luck finding any coverage.

[DINGO Joe]

Tracey Rosebud will make a fine state house member indeed, congrats! (though yeesh, I cringe and shudder at that weak mov, but minorities are pretty bad with turnout in most special elections).

I really don't know anything about the players in this region but given the unwieldy lines of the district and the population loss in the Delta, it may be a candidate to disappear next redistricting.

[DINGO Joe]

The penitentiary is in the district which means it has few eligible black voters than demographics suggest. In a low turnout special election the demographics of the turnout probably mirrored the results considering how polarized the Delta is.

Not just the penitentiary, but the fabled Parchman Farm.  I've actually been on that road.  There's a blues trail marker there and a sign saying you cannot stop and you cannot take pictures. 

[DINGO Joe]

Wait, so, I know I'm late to this, but is Pete Gallego actually working backwards, so to speak? I don't think it's very common at all that former Congresspeople go back to state legislatures, no?

He must really want to hold public office bad.

Of course, in California a State Senator actually represents more people than a US Congressman.

[DINGO Joe]

Wait, so, I know I'm late to this, but is Pete Gallego actually working backwards, so to speak? I don't think it's very common at all that former Congresspeople go back to state legislatures, no?

He must really want to hold public office bad.

Of course, in California a State Senator actually represents more people than a US Congressman.

This is also true for the Texas State Senate.

Yeah, I forgot what state we were in tonight.

[DINGO Joe]

66% in:

Vanessa Delgado
(Party Preference: DEM)
20,898   
51.8%
Rita Topalian
(Party Preference: REP)
19,466   
48.2%

Democrats have a thirty point registration advantage in this mostly LA district and they are nearly blowing this race. Not a good sign for November.

Give me a break. The Democratic candidate literally said she probably won't take the seat if elected. This seat is up in three months and will snap back to blowout Democratic margins in November.

Why won't she take the seat?  It is an extremely low vote (with the caveat of mail in still to come)

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.valdostadailytimes.com/news/local_news/house-election-slated-for-feb/article_7f4b18ad-ba6e-5f97-9964-11411602d8da.html

Special election will happen in February in GA HD-176. Don't expect much here. It's a 68-29 Trump district, and Kemp probably did even better here considering every county that is at least partially inside the district swung to Kemp.

Whatever happened to the GA representative who basically disappeared and ran off to England?   

[DINGO Joe]

Final guess, Boysko wins 65-35.

Looks like 70-30

[DINGO Joe]

Do absentee/early votes get counted with precincts? or do they get dumped separately?

[DINGO Joe]

Looks like about a 70-30 district with low education levels.  Don't expect anything interesting here.

[DINGO Joe]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

Well, 65% White, 25% Black and 7% Hispanic rural Southern district, is, of course, Republican now, but - i still expected better performance from Democratic candidates.

lol at the idea that rural Hispanics in GA are even registered. 

[DINGO Joe]

Someone on reddit who lives in GA HD-176 (he's a Democrat, for the record) had this to say about the race that would explain a lot:
"From my point of view this was always a two man race between Patten and Burchett with the majority of people not even knowing that the two Democrats ran. Patten is a Democrat turned moderate Republican (if there's even such a thing anymore) and Burchett is a Trump cultist. The race was framed as the Republican Burchett vs the Democrat Patten so I suspect an inconveniently large number of Democratic votes went to Patten"

Finally - good explanation of results.

Somebody may have voted for one R or the other on the basis of ideology, but the vote by county makes it obvious that geography was the overriding factor as one guy won the east county overwhelmingly and the other guy won the west two overwhelmingly and the one in the middle was the only close one. 

[DINGO Joe]

While the district was a little winding, it doesn't seem like an egregious gerrymander. Plus, Morgan, Elliot, and Martin all have major prisons, so it could be viewed as the prison guard district.  If it had swung up into Boyd instead of down into Pike it could have had four major prisons (plus the worst county lockup in the country). Maybe redistricting can make that happen.  Since the region can't draw in any other economic development, it becomes one of those places that get packed with state and/or federal prisoners much like WV and SW VA. 

[DINGO Joe]

While the district was a little winding, it doesn't seem like an egregious gerrymander. Plus, Morgan, Elliot, and Martin all have major prisons, so it could be viewed as the prison guard district.  If it had swung up into Boyd instead of down into Pike it could have had four major prisons (plus the worst county lockup in the country). Maybe redistricting can make that happen.  Since the region can't draw in any other economic development, it becomes one of those places that get packed with state and/or federal prisoners much like WV and SW VA. 

the entire area is a prison.

Well, that's not true as the population exodus over the decades prove.  The one group of people that can't leave until they've served their time are the inmates.  Though I'm sure one could make the argument that some don't leave because they don't have the financial means.