Ukraine 2014

[ag]

Klichko is running for mayor of Kyiv. Endorses Poroshenko for presidency.

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Interestingly, none of the major candidates is a proper Westerner. In fact, many are not even born in Ukraine. Timoshenko is from Dnipropetrovsk and is not even ethnically Ukrainian (Timoshenko is her married name). Poroshenko is from the part of the former Bessarabia that is now in Ukraine (born right at the border with Moldova). Tyhipko is from Moldova itself. Klitschko (though not a candidate anymore) is a Soviet military brat, born in Kyrgyzstan. Symonenko is from Donetsk. Lyashko is from Chernihiv, studied in Kharkiv. Only Tyahnibok is from Lviv.

[ag]

Olga Bogomolets endorsed by the Socialist Party of Ukraine. I'm liking her more and more.

Has she also been endorsed by the US Anti-Masonic party? What about the good old Constitutional Democratic Party that did so well in the First Russian Duma back in 1905?

Socialist party of Ukraine has for a while been a cold dead corpse.

BTW, nothing against Madame Bogomolets herself. My dad, actually, knows her personally, it seems

[ag]

Petro Symonenko has withdrawn because the elections will be "illegitimate."

They will be given the eastern portion of the country is under occupation...

Seriously the government in Kiev is offering the legitimize itself with this election and Russia/"militias" guarantee that can't happen by destabilizing half the country, then they can claim independence because the government in Kiev isn't legitimate. Russia really has played this perfectly.

Actually, given the size of the Poroshenko advantage, it may well turn out that Donetsk and Luhansk results would not matter, whatever they are. Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk will vote normally, it seems.

[ag]

Exit polls. Looks like it will be one round

Poroshenko 56%
Timoshenko 13%
Lyashko 8%
Hritsenko 6%
Tihipko 5%
Dobkin 2%
Bohomolets 2%
Rabinovich 2%
Tyahnibok 1%
Simonenko 1%
Yarosh 1%
Spoiled their ballots 1%
Everybody else infinitesimal

Seems like a decent turnout everywhere, except for Donetsk and Luhansk, were only a minority of the electoral districts managed to even install the polls (no election held in Donetsk city proper). Generally, in those provinces the rural areas voted (they are ethnically Ukrainian, anywa), but only few of the urban areas were safe enough to organize an election. And, of course, these are very urbanized provinces.

[ag]

Nice.

I'm looking forward to the maps by district/city, to see where the election was possible and in which areas it was not.

Only about 1/6 of the polling stations even opened in Donetsk, it seems. It will look better on the map: rural areas. Major exception: Mariupol (the city is owned by Akhmetov, and 90% of the stations opened there). Might be slightly better in Luhansk: some northern districts there are, it seems, safer.

[ag]

Really, if those are right though, terribly depressing.

Poroshenko is terrible. He's ideologically bankrupt and stands for nothing. That's bad because 1) I personally prefer a raging socialist and 2) With the lack of any ideological backdrop, the revolution will continue to be painted as a pro-Russian vs anti-Russian issue.

I had actually been hoping Tihipko got to the run-off, just to see the confused Russian reaction.

At this point no raging socialist stands the remotest chance in Ukraine. Poroshenko being non-ideological is appropriate: his task is to unite the country, and no ideological politician can do it.

[ag]

There have been problems with reporting from the districts to the Central Election Commission (apparently, they had to fight off some serious hacking threats), but, finally, some actual results.

With 3.29% of precincts reporting  we have

Poroshenko 311,199 votes (54.99%)
Timoshenko 71,595 votes (12.65%)

Poroshenko leading in every province.

There are still major problems with the electoral commission website, but it seems to be coming back from the dead. I will try to monitor this.

[ag]

So far, in the problem provinces we have reports from 4 precincts in Donetsk (3 in Mariupol, 1 in Dobropilla - the latter, I think, is rural) and 25 precincts from Luhansk (all from around Svatove - also, pretty rural, in the far north of the province).

[ag]

With 8.41% of precincts reporting, I can actually see all candidates

Poroshenko 54.92%
Timoshenko 13.16%
Lyashko 8.42%
Hrytsenko 5.57%
Tyhipko 4.75%
Dobkin 3.38%
Rabinovych 1.92%
Bohomolets 1.86%
Symonenko 1.38%
Tyahnybok 1.17%
Yarosh 0.68%
Hrynenko 0.43%
Konovalyuk 0.32%
Boyko 0.18%
Malomuzh 0.12%
Kuzmin 0.10%
Kuybida 0.06%
Klymenko 0.05%
Tsushko 0.04%
Saranov 0.03%
Shkiryak 0.02%
Invalid ballots 1.33%
Total number of votes recorded so far 1,417,137

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13.20% reporting and the CVK webpage seems to work reasonably now

Poroshenko 54.57%
Timoshenko 13.26%
Lyashko 8.51%
Hrytsenko 5.54%
Tyhipko 4.88%
Dobkin 3.26%
Rabinovych 2.01%
Bohomolets 1.87%
Symonenko 1.42%
Tyahnybok 1.17%
Yarosh 0.67%
Hrynenko 0.42%
Konovalyuk 0.33%
Boyko 0.18%
Malomuzh 0.16%
Kuzmin 0.09%
Kuybida 0.07%
Klymenko 0.05%
Tsushko 0.04%
Saranov 0.03%
Shkiryak 0.02%
Invalid ballots 1.32%
Total number of votes recorded so far 2,221,977

[ag]

So far, in the problem provinces we have reports from 4 precincts in Donetsk (3 in Mariupol, 1 in Dobropilla - the latter, I think, is rural) and 25 precincts from Luhansk (all from around Svatove - also, pretty rural, in the far north of the province).

Progress report on Donetsk and Luhansk. So far we have partial reports from only five districts in Donetsk:

District 49 Dobropilla (55/109 precincts reporting)
District 58 Mariupol (1/116 precincts reporting)
District 59 Mariupol (69/100 precincts reporting - Akhmetov effect)
District 61 Volnovakha (12/123 precincts reporting - actually, one of the worst recent losses by Ukrainian military was here)
District 62 Starobesheve (54/140 precincts reporting - this one is very rural by Donetsk standards, I believe)

In Luhansk there are reports from only two districts

District 114 Bilovodsk (19/197 precincts reporting)
District 115 Svatove (107/200 precincts reporting)

Also, though, at least, Akhmetov ensured that Mariupol had functioning precincts, very few people turned out. No precinct is much above 20%, many are closer to 10%. Also, so far almost nothing from the second Mariupol district.

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31.37% reporting

Poroshenko 54.02%
Timoshenko 13.12%
Lyashko 8.46%
Hrytsenko 5.50%
Tyhipko 5.10%
Dobkin 3.36%
Rabinovych 2.22%
Bohomolets 1.90%
Symonenko 1.53%
Tyahnybok 1.16%
Yarosh 0.67%
Hrynenko 0.43%
Konovalyuk 0.37%
Boyko 0.19%
Malomuzh 0.15%
Kuzmin 0.10%
Kuybida 0.07%
Klymenko 0.06%
Tsushko 0.04%
Saranov 0.03%
Shkiryak 0.02%
Invalid ballots 1.36%
Total number of votes recorded so far 5,637,223

[ag]

No need to keep going unless the order changes, bro.

50% is also important

the order will not much change. But there are many interesting things in that table - at least, for me

[ag]

So, a couple of districts in Lviv have, actually, finished counting, so we can do some comparisons. Turnout there is notably up compared to the (hotly contested) second round in 2010.

Turnout
District 118 Lviv
2014 91,920 votes (77.7%)
2010-2 86,992 votes (72.3%)

District 120 Lviv
2014 157,629 votes (76.1%)
2010-2 145,086 votes (70.2%)  

Update: on the other hand, the few districts in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk that finished as well are showing even bigger reductions in turnout (by around 30%).

[ag]

Also, though, at least, Akhmetov ensured that Mariupol had functioning precincts, very few people turned out. No precinct is much above 20%, many are closer to 10%. Also, so far almost nothing from the second Mariupol district.

And how did those few people vote?

Poroshenko still leads, but by a smaller margin. Summing up over the two Mariupol districts 58 and 59 (there are only a couple of hundred votes in the 2 precincts that have reported from district 58, anyway) we have

Poroshenko 7,836 votes
Tihipko 3,745 votes
Rabinovich 1,170 votes
Dobkin 1,074 votes
Timoshenko 1,003 votes

Everybody else under a thousand votes each. Interestingly enough, slightly elevated result for the Ukrainian ultra Yarosh: so far, he has 221 votes here, around 1.15%, which is almost double his national share (0.66%).

So far, Poroshenko leads in every district in the country but 1 (Dobkin is ahead in one of the Kharkiv ones - favorite son effect).  There are a total of 225 districts in theory, though as 12 of those are in Crimea and Sevastopol, these are certainly out. There are still no precincts reporting from 17 districts in Donetsk and 10 in Luhansk (most of these did not have the election, though some, apparently, did, but have trouble reporting).

[ag]

Progress report on Donetsk and Luhansk. No new districts reporting since I went to bed, though more precincts in some of those. So far we have partial reports from only five districts in Donetsk (update: many more precincts but same districts):

District 49 Dobropilla (77/109 precincts reporting)
District 58 Mariupol (86/116 precincts reporting)
District 59 Mariupol (81/100 precincts reporting - Akhmetov effect)
District 61 Volnovakha (96/123 precincts reporting - actually, one of the worst recent losses by Ukrainian military was here: but, at least, it is evidence the military IS there)
District 62 Starobesheve (76/140 precincts reporting - this one is very rural by Donetsk standards, I believe)

In Luhansk there are reports from only two districts

District 114 Bilovodsk (98/197 precincts reporting)
District 115 Svatove (179/200 precincts reporting)

Overall, so far there are 135,656 votes from the two provinces together. Not much.

[ag]

There are many better maps I should link - I will try to find them.

The most up to date results are on the CVK webpage. They have already counted 98.66 of the installed precincts.  The biggest delay is in the two districts in Donetsk (Krasnoarmiysk and Oleksandrivka), where the district commissions apparently had to be evacuated to Dnipropetrovsk, together with the ballot boxes, to ensure lack of interference in the tallying process. As of this moment they have only counted around a third of the precincts in Krasnoarmiysk and have not even started Oleksandrivka - I guess, they will report on it after Krasnoarmiysk. Anyways, the number of votes there is pretty trivial and will not affect anything.

To sum up, including these 2 districts, it seems only 7 districts in Donetsk and 2 districts in Luhansk had any precincts installed. Everywhere else the election simply did not happen. So far, just over 150 thousand votes have been tallied from both provinces together (just around 100 thousand in Donetsk and just under 53 thousand in Luhansk). This compares with around 4.7 mln. votes between the two in the first round of the 2010 election.

[ag]

Results are, essentially, final (they are still waiting to certify those from one of the precincts in Kyiv - and I am not 100% certain about Donetsk - but whatever adjustments that might happen will be extremely minor).

Update: There has arrived a batch of votes from another Donetsk district, but that is now final. Updated

Total turnout 18,019,456 votes

Poroshenko 54.70%
Timoshenko 12.81%
Lyashko 8.32%
Hrytsenko 5.48%
Tyhipko 5.23%
Dobkin 3.03%
Rabinovych 2.25%
Bohomolets 1.91%
Symonenko 1.51%
Tyahnybok 1.16%
Yarosh 0.70%
Hrynenko 0.40%
Konovalyuk 0.38%
Boyko 0.19%
Malomuzh 0.13%
Kuzmin 0.10%
Kuybida 0.06%
Klymenko 0.05%
Tsushko 0.05%
Saranov 0.03%
Shkiryak 0.02%
Invalid ballots 1.35%

[ag]

This seems to be the final turnout in Donetsk and Luhansk. Essentially, elections did not happen there, but in a few places some officials managed to hold the vote (plus, of course, there is Mariupol, where oligarch Akhmetov made it happen). The head of Starobesheve electoral commission was greeted with applause when she arrived to Kyiv bringing the originals of the result protocols. She said, they were ordered by the DNR people not to hold the vote, and that to get to Kyiv they, basically, got themselves smuggled through the woods. When asked if she was scared, she responded "VERY scared" (interestingly enough, that "VERY" was the only properly Ukrainian word she used - she spoke pretty much Russian, though phonetically and grammatically it is a clearly transitional variety; in that rural area their local dialect is transitional, though, of course, speaking to the journalists she switched to the one literary standard she is comfortable in).

UPDATE: At the last moment there arrived results from District 60 (Marinka). Not much, but something, at least. I think these are now final, so I update.

Anyways, here it is (with candidates who got at least 5% of the local vote).

District 47, Oleksandrivka (19 precincts reporting). Total turnout 4,807 votes
Poroshenko 31.14%
Tihipko 20.57%
Dobkin 7.94%
Timoshenko 7.42%
Rabinovich 6.69%
Simonenko 5.32%

District 49 Dobropilla (77 precincts reporting), 19,409 votes
Poroshenko 33.43%
Tihipko 21.57%
Timoshenko 8.01%
Dobkin 7.91%
Rabinovich 5.09%

District 50, Krasnoarmiysk (55 precincts reporting)  12,166 votes
Poroshenko 35.89%
Tihipko 16.94%
Timoshenko 11.23%
Dobkin 8.44%

District 58 Mariupol (112 precincts reporting) 22,369 votes
Poroshenko 34.68%
Tihipko 19.82%
Dobkin 7.13%
Rabinovich 6.67%
Timoshenko 5.81%

District 59 Mariupol (91 precincts reporting), 24,705 votes
Poroshenko 41.30%
Tihipko 19.26%
Rabinovich 6.11%
Dobkin 5.65%
Timoshenko 5.19%

District 60, Marinka (64 precincts reporting) 6,768 votes - UPDATE
Poroshenko 41.16%
Tihipko 15.02%
Timoshenko 14.39%
Hritsenko 5.48%

District 61 Volnovakha (101 precincts reporting) 17,685 votes
Poroshenko 32.15%
Tihipko 20.48%
Timoshenko 8.23%
Rabinovich 6.24%
Dobkin 6.02%
Simonenko 5.12%

District 62 Starobesheve (82 precincts reporting) 7,914 votes
Poroshenko 36.47%
Tihipko 20.55%
Timoshenko 8.07%
Dobkin 7.77%

And, in Luhansk, only two northern rural districts managed to do any polling.

District 114 Bilovodsk (98 precincts reporting) 16,012 votes
Poroshenko 30.29%
Tihipko 17.42%
Timoshenko 8.78%
Dobkin 7.00%
Simonenko 6.66%
Hritsenko 5.41%
Lyashko 5.01%

District 115 Svatove (186 precincts reporting), 36,227 votes
Poroshenko 34.44%
Tihipko 15.00%
Dobkin 8.47%
Timoshenko 7.32%
Lyashko 6.68%
Rabinovich 6.30%

UPDATE Overall, there 115,823+52,239=168,052 votes from the two provinces together. But, once again, the major parts of these provinces (including both capitals and a number of large cities) had no voting whatsoever. And even in the 10 districts that voted many (in some, most) of the precincts never opened.