NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

Bob Turner is not Jewish.

That makes his pandering even more disgusting.

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.

I addressed your point a page or two before.

I guess if Mike Michaud gave a victory speech having a French flag next to him or Raul Grijalva with a Mexican one, Republicans would be totally OK with that.

Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan. I doubt they would get upset at Cuban emigre Republicans waving the old flag around.  Partisan politics tends  to turn people into hypocritical jackoffs.

OMG, Enemy agent!

I agree with that and so do many Jews who voted for Turner.

[NY Jew]

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2011/09/14/behind-bob-turners-win-jewish-voters-opposed-to-gay-marriage/

[Tender Branson]

[krazen1211]

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2011/09/14/behind-bob-turners-win-jewish-voters-opposed-to-gay-marriage/

Sir, you have proven yourself to be correct already numerous times. The peanut gallery has some odd mishap against accepting your assertions when theirs have shown to be incorrect. I wonder what about this reality bothers them so much.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan.

Wouldn't that be 90% of Republicans?

[J. J.]

Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan.

Wouldn't that be 90% of Republicans?

I doubt if they would, if it was a Vatican City flag.  Both flags, Vatican City and the flag of Israel, represent religious groups as well as countries.  It is common to see the Mogen David flag in synagogues, as you might see the "Christian Flag" in Protestant churches. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks for posting the map. Looks as expected (basically), but will look over the details after I've done some more work...

[Meeker]

The AP has the margin now at 6, btw. 53-47 overall with Weprin winning the Queens portion 52-47 and Turner the Brooklyn portion 67-33.

[NY Jew]

What a thread.

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

[NY Jew]

notice the areas of Forrest Hills that Turner won are Heavily Orthodox (German, Modern and most importantly Bucharian)

[Meeker]

What a thread.

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

I don't mind reading things from people I disagree with. That's why I enjoy reading posts from Torie, Sam Spade, Inks, etc.

What I don't enjoy reading is mindless drivel that contributes nothing to the forum. That's what your posts are.

[NY Jew]

What a thread.

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

I don't mind reading things from people I disagree with. That's why I enjoy reading posts from Torie, Sam Spade, Inks, etc.

What I don't enjoy reading is mindless drivel that contributes nothing to the forum. That's what your posts are.

how about the fact that I was the only one to predict that Marriage redefinition would be a major player in this race which you would have to be a complete idiot to miss at this point.(why do I feel I might have stumbled on to something here)

[BigSkyBob]

What a thread.

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

I don't mind reading things from people I disagree with. That's why I enjoy reading posts from Torie, Sam Spade, Inks, etc.

What I don't enjoy reading is mindless drivel that contributes nothing to the forum. That's what your posts are.

how about the fact that I was the only one to predict that Marriage redefinition would be a major player in this race which you would have to be a complete idiot to miss at this point.(why do I feel I might have stumbled on to something here)

I reminded of a story from the book, "Why Johnny can't tell right from wrong?"


The author, a professor, showed his class a film of a counselor hosting a sex-education discussion in high school. The counselor led the discussion by asking for questions from the students. The students asked their questions, she answered, and, then, concluded by pulling a series of flash cards that demonstrated the proper use of condoms.

The professor asked his students what they thought of what they just watched. The students were impressed with democratic nature of the discussion. The professor noted that he thought it was propaganda that they had just watched.

The professor noted that he won the students over to his viewpoint when he asked, "Had the discussion led to a support for abstinence, would the conselor had pulled out a series of flash cards explaining abstinence?" The discussion ended with certain conclusions because the moderator of the discussion meant it to end exactly that way. The outcome was pre-decided, and, to the extent that that outcome could be made to appear to spontaneous, so much the better.

You have to understand how these people think. When they say, "adds nothing to the discussion" they simply mean that your participation here doesn't further his agenda. That's it. He doesn't want a discussion where all viewpoints participate, everyone states his case, and the best ideas win.

[krazen1211]

People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

NYJew, this mindless, incorrect drivel is why Meeker is crying about you.

Meeker declaring an election over is supposed to make it over.

[krazen1211]

There was never any real reason to expect it to be. How the hell are the Republicans going to take this seat after losing NY-26? That'd be like the Democratic nominee winning Georgia but losing Michigan.

By getting a majority of the votes.

[Torie]

From the below, you can see just how tight a correlation there was between the McCain vote and the Turner vote. It appears to have been a generalized swing (at least among whites), rather than something special to Orthodox Jews.  If anything, at least based on the coloration, the swing appears to have been higher among Catholics. That McCain area in the NW corner of the CD is Catholic.

[/quote

[Meeker]

Looks like I have a fan club. Neat!

[NY Jew]

From the below, you can see just how tight a correlation there was between the McCain vote and the Turner vote. It appears to have been a generalized swing (at least among whites), rather than something special to Orthodox Jews.  If anything, at least based on the coloration, the swing appears to have been higher among Catholics. That McCain area in the NW corner of the CD is Catholic.

[/quote

except Orthodox Jews aren't strait Republicans we're a swing vote (though the democrats are looking to end this) that breaks at around 70% in most elections.

leave aside the issue and Orthodox Jews vote the opposite% for Weprin

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

[J. J.]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

[Sbane]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.

[Meeker]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.

Bingo!

[NY Jew]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

with out seeing the exact numbers (but based on the info I have, certain % and of reports of very High Orthodox and Russian Turnout) I would either way Weprin wins but I think it would be a lot closer in the case of Weprin still voting for marriage but a friendlily environment.
you can see in the maps that Rego Park and Forrest Hills had many red areas in this race and not in 2008 and that was due mostly to Bucharian Jews showing up because of the marriage vote (this is also assuming he didn't have any other issues gay parades, gay speeches (if you know anything about this race you'll know exactly what I'm talking about) ext.).  In Kew Garden Hills, Forrest Hills, Flatbush I heard reports of very high turnouts.
considering that this district had a low overall turnout It's clear what won this race.

The thing about Obama was very important because that was spread across the whole district (though concentrated in White catholic neighborhoods) so it made the protest vote against marriage redefinition possible.  To see how much Obama's losing the non Orthodox Jewish vote I would have to wait for till I get more precise info.

I repeat for all the people who are to dense to figure it out many Orthodox Jews routinely vote democrat in one race and Republican in another in the same year at 75%+ rates. Weprin would have gotten a lot of orthodox votes if not for the marriage vote which is the whole reason he was picked because the democratic leadership in Queens underestimated the fact that Jews would not only reject one of their own but one who funded more Orthodox organizations then any other politician on any level of government .  He tried to run in the Orthodox Jewish community on that record but he couldn't because of the gay issues. losing the highest voting demographic (it would have been  if there would have been a Orthodox Jew running as a Orthodox Jew in this district) from 70%+ in your camp to 70%+ (wont know the more exact estimates for a while)  in your opponents camp would have more then closed the gap.

[NY Jew]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.

in addition to what I said before the demographic that hates Obama (Orthodox Jews) the most in this district would have voted for weprin if not for the marriage

[NY Jew]

in addition to all the people who voted based on marriage almost all the Orthodox media (in general the Orthodox media never asks hard ball questions) was super against Weprin because of marriage (bashing him on everything much more then they normally would because of that vote), all Turner's endorsers (rabbis, politicians, and other leaders )endorsersed him based on marriage.