NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Wonkish1]

Definitely over.  Turner wins as there are nearly as many Brooklyn precincts out as there are in Queens.  And Queens is basically 50-50.  Turner should have a victory margin of ~6000 votes.

Try 8000

Yup.  Weprin is still on pace to take a 55-44 drubbing, losing by about 7,500 votes out of 68,500.  Reason: Brooklyn's results are lagging Queens' and Weprin is doing slightly better than breakeven in Queens.

That's my math as well.

[Wonkish1]

Yeah, Turner's won this. By a margin bigger than I expected, too (For what it is worth, I was predicting a 50-49 win for the GOP).

Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

When are you guys not demoralized?

LLLOOOLLL

[Sbane]

Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

I don't really care about NY-09; it was NV-02 that really has me disappointed.

Thanks, but I don't drink! lol

Yeah, it's NV-2 that is the bigger story imho. Although there is still a lot to come in over there.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

I don't really care about NY-09; it was NV-02 that really has me disappointed.

Thanks, but I don't drink! lol

This

[Sam Spade]

I just want one of Al's pretty maps when we get ED numbers.  NYC races are always fascinating.

[Wonkish1]

Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

I don't really care about NY-09; it was NV-02 that really has me disappointed.

Thanks, but I don't drink! lol

Yeah losing Washoe doesn't feel good either, I'm sure.

[rbt48]

Anyone have any results from the upstate NY AD races, districts 116 and 144?

[Keystone Phil]

A friend of mine: "President Obama is demanding that NY 9 go back to its Pre-1967 borders."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's dangerous to over-analyse this sort of thing (and even more dangerous to project forward too far ahead wrt to the seat itself), but I think it's fair to say that this is not a good sign for Obama. Special factors can be reeled out to explain away a large part of it, I suppose (certainly the circumstances and the candidate didn't help), but, fundamentally, the Democratic Party should not loose immigrant-heavy districts in New York City (much as the contemporary Republican Party should not have lost certain districts in the Deep South a few years ago). If such a thing happens, panic is absolutely the wrong response (it is always the wrong response), what ought to happen is a careful reassessment of certain things...

That might look a little stream of consciousness, but consider the time out here by the banks of the Menai.

[Meeker]

Anyone have any results from the upstate NY AD races, districts 116 and 144?

Dems won both.

[Torie]

It's dangerous to over-analyse this sort of thing (and even more dangerous to project forward too far ahead wrt to the seat itself), but I think it's fair to say that this is not a good sign for Obama. Special factors can be reeled out to explain away a large part of it, I suppose (certainly the circumstances and the candidate didn't help), but, fundamentally, the Democratic Party should not loose immigrant-heavy districts in New York City (much as the contemporary Republican Party should not have lost certain districts in the Deep South a few years ago). If such a thing happens, panic is absolutely the wrong response (it is always the wrong response), what ought to happen is a careful reassessment of certain things...

That might look a little stream of consciousness, but consider the time out here by the banks of the Menai.

This is what I posted on the NV-02 thread: "The voters wanted to send Obama a message. Both CD's were national election statements. The Dems lost everything but the Obama base. Almost all the swing voters went GOP - and then some. That sometimes happens in special elections."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, yeah. Losing safe seats in this way sucks. Not the end of the world though, even if it might briefly feel that way.

[Psychic Octopus]

Called for Turner. Now to see what the margin is... since we have only a little bit over a third out of Brooklyn, I am very curious as to what the final numbers will be.

Could Turner get to about 55% or so?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Whether or not the Democrats do well in special elections is inconsequential to me at this point tbh. This result is disappointing to me because of the morally reprehensible way Turner campaigned, not because he's a "pubbie".

[Keystone Phil]

O-shit.

[J. J.]

AP just declared it for Turner.

[DrScholl]

Now the Democrats can start planning how they are going to dismantle this seat. I will not be hard to totally vaporize it.

And I won't even get into why it makes zero sense to draw conclusions about national trends from special election results in House seats.

It's not like this is even a district full of liberal Democrats, it's mostly very conservative religious voters. What did the GOP really gain here?

[Sbane]

Oh, yeah. Losing safe seats in this way sucks. Not the end of the world though, even if it might briefly feel that way.

Well, Perry will be the next President. Whether that is the end of the world or not, I will leave it up to you. Of course if people think this is some sort of realignment (as opposed to voters pissed at everyone, mainly at the guys in charge currently).........

[Sbane]

O-shit.

Haha, almost forgot how annoying you were. Congrats, Phil.

[Keystone Phil]

#But...SantorumStillLostBy18Points!!!!

[Torie]

Now the Democrats can start planning how they are going to dismantle this seat. I will not be hard to totally vaporize it.

And I won't even get into why it makes zero sense to draw conclusions about national trends from special election results in House seats.

It's not like this is even a district full of liberal Democrats, it's mostly very conservative religious voters. What did the GOP really gain here?

The Courts and the Pubbies are not going to allow eliminating  this seat. The Courts will eliminate the Carolyn McCarthy seat. It's quite obvious to me. Turner will inherit  a GOP bastion. It will be mostly in Brooklyn. He was just there at the right time. He's damn lucky.

[Wonkish1]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

[Sbane]

Maybe Mandoglove can be our next president. Don't stop believing Phil!!!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

O-shit.

Yeah, clearly it's all Obama's fault that the awful economy has caused voters to sour on him.

[cinyc]

Called for Turner. Now to see what the margin is... since we have only a little bit over a third out of Brooklyn, I am very curious as to what the final numbers will be.

Could Turner get to about 55% or so?

Current straight line projection is 55-45 - though again, it seems to overproject the Brooklyn part of the district unless turnout was really higher there than Queens.  54% or 55% seems about right.