AZ-SEN 2018: Sinema Paradiso

[Pollster]

Arizona GOP is worried

[here2view]

I think Sinema ends up winning, although it'll be very close.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

And Sinema is in the lead.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Wow. 16,000 vote McSally lead erased without breaking a sweat and 345k to go.

And based on the AZGOP lawsuit they filed the Republicans are sweating like dogs. Montana 2.0?

[User157088589849]

Lets waitnfor the votes to be counted and not get ahead of ourselves

[UWS]

And Sinema is in the lead.

Wrong. McSally is in the lead by exactly 1 percentage point and 99.53 % of the vote in Arizona are reported. And most of the precincts that are not counted yet are in strongly red counties like the Yuma, Pinla and Greenlee counties. So I predict that McSally will win.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/

[windjammer]

And Sinema is in the lead.

Wrong. McSally is in the lead by exactly 1 percentage point and 99.53 % of the vote in Arizona are reported. And most of the precincts that are not counted yet are in strongly red counties like the Yuma, Pinla and Greenlee counties. So I predict that McSally will win.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/

UWS,
Something just was updated on this website: https://results.arizona.vote/#/federal/4/0

[Mr. Smith]

Promising, very promising but I'm not holding my breath. She's in a better spot than Nelson, but that isn't saying much.

[YE]

And Sinema is in the lead.

Wrong. McSally is in the lead by exactly 1 percentage point and 99.53 % of the vote in Arizona are reported. And most of the precincts that are not counted yet are in strongly red counties like the Yuma, Pinla and Greenlee counties. So I predict that McSally will win.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/

It is so obvious you haven't been following along or have any idea how AZ vote tabulation even works.

[kph14]

Promising, very promising but I'm not holding my breath. She's in a better spot than Nelson, but that isn't saying much.

She is in the freaking lead right now

[Lourdes]

Hoping Sinema can hold this lead and pull through. I think she has a chance.

[UWS]

And Sinema is in the lead.

Wrong. McSally is in the lead by exactly 1 percentage point and 99.53 % of the vote in Arizona are reported. And most of the precincts that are not counted yet are in strongly red counties like the Yuma, Pinla and Greenlee counties. So I predict that McSally will win.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/

UWS,
Something just was updated on this website: https://results.arizona.vote/#/federal/4/0

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona#Politics

[Lourdes]

Sinema's lead has now expanded to around 9,000, from around 2,000 earlier.

[Webnicz]

there has been a TON of confusion about how arizona counts ballots. it has always been like this here, but its just now getting coverage due to our senate race. The lengthy tabulation time is due to the signature verification process(which is designed to help republicans) that ballots must undergo before they can be counted.

the "precincts reporting" in AZ means they have counted all of the election day votes. which have essentially all been counted

And Sinema is in the lead.

Wrong. McSally is in the lead by exactly 1 percentage point and 99.53 % of the vote in Arizona are reported. And most of the precincts that are not counted yet are in strongly red counties like the Yuma, Pinla and Greenlee counties. So I predict that McSally will win.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/

UWS,
Something just was updated on this website: https://results.arizona.vote/#/federal/4/0

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona#Politics

Greenlee only contributes like 3k ballots per election. Theres a reason we are called the State Of Maricopa.

But if we really want to get in a debate about Greenlee, Sinema is doing +10 better than Clinton and she is *to my surprise* doing +6% better than Clinton In Navajo, I was not expecting rural parts like these to swing in Sinema's favor. Then again it doesnt take much to over perform Clinton in places like these.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, Sinema's got this. Goes to show that voting with Trump 97% of the time is not a winning strategy in a swing state.

[Chinggis]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

[Dr. Arch]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

He, much like hofoid in WI, is beyond reason.

[UWS]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

Nope. Are you crazy? Just 50? Actually, 9455 live in this county.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

And Sinema is in the lead.

Wrong. McSally is in the lead by exactly 1 percentage point and 99.53 % of the vote in Arizona are reported. And most of the precincts that are not counted yet are in strongly red counties like the Yuma, Pinla and Greenlee counties. So I predict that McSally will win.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/

UWS,
Something just was updated on this website: https://results.arizona.vote/#/federal/4/0

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona#Politics

Dude, you can't be real. Trump won that county in a landslide yes, but literally only 3,000 votes were cast. That number is certainly a lot smaller because this is a midterm.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Woah, Sinema could actually do this.

[UWS]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

Nope, 9455 live in this county.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona

Are you high?

And you have you read this link?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Greenlee County, Arizona used to be more swingy, maybe even Democratic leaning.

[Dr. Arch]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

Nope, 9455 live in this county.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona

Are you high?

It's obvious you haven't look on this link in order to see the obvious facts.

Obvious facts huh... okay Mr. Factoids, I have a question for you.

Why do you think it is the case that Dane county has over 500,000 people in it, but only about 300,000 vote when turnout is almost at 90%? Let me know when you have an answer, and we can talk about your wonderful Greenlee County analysis.

[cvparty]

Even then, only 87 % of the vote is reported in the Greenlee County and is strongly Republican and Trump won it by 24 percentage points in 2016.

Look at the number of votes it casts. There's like 50 people living there, lol.

Nope, 9455 live in this county.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenlee_County,_Arizona

Are you high?

It's obvious you haven't look on this link in order to see the obvious facts.

okay, but only ~3000 people vote, and close to 90% of the votes have been counted. so there's a few hundred left...and the republican margin would only be ~1/5 of that number

[UWS]

Greenlee County, Arizona used to be more swingy, maybe even Democratic leaning.

But that was a very long time ago. The last time a Democrat won it was in 1996 with Bill Clinton and at that time the Republican/conservative vote was divided between Dole and Perot.