The Delegate Fight: Obama Clinches!

[Erc]

Those Oregon numbers are more than slightly optimistic for her. So is Puerto Rico (where 24/55 delegates are allocated from 4 delegate districts.)

I'm assuming she gets around 2/3 of the vote in PR, so she gets those 3 - 1.

It's overly optimistic, but it's intended to be.  This is meant to be a best case scenario number.

[Erc]

Colorado Congressional District Conventions.

Over three weeks, Colorado has been holding its Congressional District Conventions.

On May 3, CD 6 held its.
Obama 3 - Clinton 2 [as expected]

On May 10, CDs 1, 2, and 7 held theirs.

CD 7:
Obama 3 - Clinton 2 [as expected]

CDs 1 & 2 have not yet reported results.

On May 16, CDs 3, 4, and 5 will hold theirs.

On May 17, the State Convention will pick the At-Large & Pledged PLEO delegates to the National Convention.

If anyone (from Colorado or otherwise) knows the results from the CD 1 or CD 2 conventions, please let me know.

[Erc]

West Virginia: May 13, 2008

Half-Open Primary
39 Delegates
--18 by CD
--10 At-Large
--11 Unpledged

Polls close at 7:30 PM EDT.

CD Delegates:
Each of the three CDs has 6 delegates.

At-Large Delegates:
7 At-Large
3 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
4 DNC Members
2 Senators
2 Representatives
1 Governor
1? Distinguished Party Leader (Byrd may accidentally be counted twice)
1 'Add-On' (selected June 13/14 by State Democratic Executive Committee)

[Erc]

And my first post is now abutting 10000 characters.  Hopefully after May 17 I can cut down on some of the bloat.

[Erc]

At-Large Breakdown (by Clinton two-way %age in state)

50%: 6 - 4
64.2%: 7 - 3
78.6%: 8 - 2
83.3%: 9 - 1
85%: 10 - 0

In each CD:
41.7%: 3 - 3
58.3%: 4 - 2
75%: 5 - 1
85%: 6 - 0

So, really the question is whether Clinton breaks 64.2% statewide or not (with subsidiary questions of whether Clinton can break 75% in a CD or Obama 42% in a CD).

Clinton in the upper 60's should give a 19 - 9 breakdown, as BRTD & I predict.

[Erc]

More on the Colorado Conventions:

Obama won 4 out of 6 delegates in both CO-1 and CO-2.

Projections for CDs 3, 4, and 5:

CD 3:
Obama 3 - Clinton 2.   
This is pretty much the guaranteed result.

CD 4:
Obama 3 - Clinton 2.
Obama's sitting on 3.36 delegate-equivalents right now---if there's a significant swing to him or many Clinton no-shows, he may pick up another delegate here.

CD 5:
Obama 3 - Clinton 1.
Pretty much the guaranteed result.

Statewide (convention on May 17),
Obama should win the PLEO delegation 5 - 2, but he's on a knifeedge there...if he loses any support, it may slip to 4 - 3.
At-Large is pretty securely 8 - 4 Obama.

[Erc]

AP is reporting that provisional ballots have given Obama two "uncalled" pledged delegates in Ohio.  I'm not sure whether you have that in your numbers, Erc.

One in the Cincinnati area switched over a few weeks ago (CD 1 I believe)...I haven't heard anything else recently.   All the official results I can find seem to agree with my current numbers.

[Erc]

With Edwards' endorsement of Obama, I'm going to switch his 19 delegates to Obama's column (as 'superdelegates').  They are, of course, free to vote their own conscience, but I will be assuming they vote for Obama unless I hear a statement from any of the delegates to the contrary.

This also probably makes it much less likely that Edwards will pick up those last 3 delegates in Iowa on June 14.

[Erc]

On second thought, I've decided to reverse my earlier decision, and keep Edwards' delegates as uncommitted unless they say otherwise.  They really are superdelegates, at this point---and there's good reason to keep the scenarios I list optimistic for Clinton (to see what possible justification she has for staying in the race).  I may not update the main page for a few hours yet, though.

Edwards' Delegates:

New Hampshire:

District Level Delegate: Joshua Denton, (Portsmouth):  Endorsed Obama
District Level Delegate: Deborah Bacon-Nelson (Hanover)
Pledged Leader Elected Official: Senator Peter Hoe Burling (Cornish)
At-large Delegate: Representative Sharon Nordgren (Hanover)

Bacon-Nelson and Nordgren have decided to "wait a little longer before making an announcement on who they'd support."  Burling could not be reached by the AP.

South Carolina:

Robert Groce:  Endorsed Obama
Marilyn Hemingway:  Endorsed Obama
E Tim Moore
Christine Brennan-Bond: Endorsed Obama
Lauren Bilton: Endorsed Obama
Daniel Boan: Endorsed Obama
Michael Evatt: Endorsed Obama
Susan Smith: Endorsed Obama

Iowa:
4 CD-level delegates have already been chosen:

Machelle Crum:  Endorsed Obama
Marci Wolff
Arlene Prather-Kane:  Endorsed Obama
David Redlawsk

Edwards still has enough support in Iowa to pick up 3 At-Large delegates in Iowa (to be chosen on June 14th).  However, the co-chair of Edwards' Iowa campaign has made it clear they won't be going for them now that Edwards has made an endorsement:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I will operate under the assumption that Edwards delegates do line up behind Edwards and Tully, and support Obama at the state convention.  This gives Obama all of Edwards' delegates in the state.

Florida:
Edwards' 13 district-level delegates were chosen on March 1st.  Edwards, who got only 14.4% of the vote in Florida, did not receive any At-Large delegates.  Of course, none of these delegates have votes currently, but they may prove a factor if Florida is partially or completely restored.  At least 8 of these delegates (though it is unclear which will be supporting Obama.

Bill Vincent [CD 1]
E. Alan Brock [CD 2]: Endorsed Obama
Mary Mooney [CD 2]
Deborah Courtney [CD 4]
Fred K. McDowell [CD 5]
Debbie Boyd [CD 6]
Joseph Beutenmuller [CD 7]
Justin M. Troller [CD 12]
Rita Ferrandino [CD 13]
Sally Gene Frederick [CD 14]
Barry Randall Birdwell [CD 15]:  remaining Uncommitted.
Linda Spisak [CD 16]: Endorsed Obama
Gregory M. Shimkaveg [CD 24]

[Erc]

Summary of what I've done with Edwards' delegates:

1 of 4 NH delegates to Obama (Denton has endorsed).
6 of 8 SC delegates to Obama (reports indicate).
3 At-Large Iowa delegates to Obama (Edwards' co-chair in Iowa expects to rally Edwards delegates for Obama).
0 of 13 FL delegates to Obama [I have no information out of the state].

[Erc]

CNN confirms that 6 of 8 SC delegates, plus Machelle Crum of Iowa, have endorsed Obama.

Link

One of Edwards' 13 FL delegates, Linda Spisak, has endorsed Obama:

Link

[Erc]

I'm going to have less convenient access to computers over the next week and a half.

Updates of delegate numbers will continue through next Tuesday night (but don't expect regular updates of the percentage figures--the 84.9% number will be there for a while).

For approximately a week after KY/OR, there likely won't be any updates period.

[Erc]

It's Saturday, so it's Convention Day!

And my, what a Convention day it is.

Colorado is holding its State Convention today, the final leg in its long caucus process that began on February 5th.  The convention will be deciding the allocation of Colorado's 7 Pledged PLEO delegates, 12 At-Large delegates, and 1 'Add-On.'

The Pledged PLEOs are expected to break down 5 - 2 for Obama, but this is the race to watch...it may yet be 4 - 3 Obama.  The At-Large delegates are pretty safely 8 - 4 Obama, and the Add-On is at this point guaranteed to be for Obama.

Also expect soon announced results from the Congressional District Conventions held yesterday in CDs 3, 4, and 5.

Kansas is holding its State Convention today, selecting 7 At-Large, 4 Pledged PLEO, and 1 Add-On delegate.  These are expected to go 5 - 2, 3 - 1 and presumably 1 - 0 in favor of Obama.

Washington is finally selecting the first of its delegates to Denver at its Congressional District Conventions.  This should clear up most of any mystery remaining regarding the Washington delegation.

Michigan was originally scheduled to have its State Central Committee meeting on May 17th.  This would have picked the At-Large delegation based on the results of the primary---most importantly for our purposes, they would have picked the Uncommitted delegation.  However, due to the uncertain fate of the Michigan delegation, the State Central Committee meeting has been moved to June 14th, after an expected resolution of the MI/FL delegate issue around May 31.

Nevada has the first day of its State Convention today.  Delegates (both CD, At-Large, and Add-On) should be chosen tomorrow.

[Erc]

Given that a compromise on MI/FL is looking increasingly likely (the current leading plan appears to be halve Florida's delegation and divide MI 69 - 59 for Clinton), I've decided to change the 'Magic Number' to correspond with that division of MI/FL delegates.

Not that this improves Clinton's chances all that much---she still needs to win 77% of remaining superdelegates (compared to the 86% in her worst-case scenario).

[Erc]

Any word from Washington? I've been having trouble finding results, but I'll keep asking around.

I haven't found anything out of Washington or Colorado [state or CDs 3/4/5]...or, for that matter, official word out of Kansas as to their final delegate count.

My view is that we'd probably have heard something reported in the news had anything unexpected happened...but the lack of any news is unfortunate.

From the language I've seen thrown around regarding Washington, it seems nobody expected anything to happen...the 1st CD dems had been saying a month ago, for example: "The 1st Congressional district will elect exactly 6 delegates and those will be allocated 4 for Obama and 2 for Clinton.
     The Obama delegates will be in one room voting for their 2 men and 2 women, and the Clinton delegates will be in another room voting for their one man and one woman."

[Erc]

With the endorsement of the two AK DNC members, we've reached a few notable milestones in the % superdelegates numbers...

If everything goes horribly for Clinton in MI/FL (neither delegation seated), Clinton would need over 90% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes as expected for Clinton in MI/FL (Half-Nelson in FL, 10-delegate lead in MI), Clinton would need over 80% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes in Clinton's favor in MI/FL (delegation completely restored and At-Large delegation remains Uncommitted), Clinton would need over two-thirds of remaining superdelegates.

[Erc]

With the endorsement of the two AK DNC members, we've reached a few notable milestones in the % superdelegates numbers...

If everything goes horribly for Clinton in MI/FL (neither delegation seated), Clinton would need over 90% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes as expected for Clinton in MI/FL (Half-Nelson in FL, 10-delegate lead in MI), Clinton would need over 80% of remaining superdelegates.

If everything goes in Clinton's favor in MI/FL (delegation completely restored and At-Large delegation remains Uncommitted), Clinton would need over two-thirds of remaining superdelegates.

Are you counting Michigan's uncommitted delegates as undeclared superdelegates?  Many of them have already endorsed and Clinton's own campaign admits that Obama will get at least a huge slice of them.

Only 36 of the Uncommitted delegates have been chosen (the ones by CD).  The rest are currently slated to be chosen on the 14th of June.  Of those 36, 15 were vetted by Michiganders for Obama, an additional 10 have endorsed Obama, and 11 were on union-backed slates who were uncommitted as of April 19.  Some of those 11 may have since endorsed, but there's little information out there.  I do have most of their names (look earlier in this thread for details).

The remaining 19 At-Large have not yet been chosen, and are currently scheduled to be selected on June 14th.

In most of my counts involving MI/FL, I've counted the 30 Uncommitted who haven't endorsed for Obama, except in my Scenario IV, where I count them as Uncommitted superdelegates.

[Erc]

Two additional Edwards delegates in NH have endorsed Obama, leaving only 4 Edwards delegates who haven't endorsed: 2 in Iowa, and 1 each in NH & SC (plus 6 in FL).

Today is Saturday, so it's Convention day!

Alaska is holding its State Convention today, where all of Alaska's delegates (8, 3, and 2 At-Large, plus 1 'Add-On') will be chosen.  The pledged delegates are expected to break down 9 - 4 for Obama, though it's quite possible that Obama could gain a delegate here if he gains support (as in Nevada last Saturday).  The most likely pickup is the second Pledged PLEO delegate (Pledged PLEOs are expected to be 1 - 1, but Clinton is only holding onto her delegate by a knifedge).

Wyoming is holding its State Convention today.  They will choose Wyoming's 3 and 2 At-Large delegates (its 7 "District" delegates have already been selected).  They will also choose 1 'Add-On.'

Georgia will be having its State Central Committee meeting, where 2 unpledged 'Add-Ons' will be chosen.

Vermont will have its State Convention today, but all the results were pre-ordained by the March 4th results.  Vermont's 'Add-On' will not be chosen until June 7.

[Erc]

Something of a milestone today:

It is now mathematically impossible for Clinton to win the nomination if nothing goes in her favor regarding the seating of MI/FL.

Assuming good results for Clinton in the remaining 3 states:
PR: 37 - 18 Clinton
SD: 8 - 7 Obama
MT: 9 - 7 Obama

The 32 pledged delegates Obama picks up in those states pushes him over the top, to 2025.5 delegates, given today's endorsement by Gail Rasmussen.

Even in a more reasonable scenario (halving of MI/FL delegation), she'd still need to win 88 - 90% of the remaining supers, and in her best case scenario, over 70% of remaining supers.

[Erc]

Michigan Congressional District Convention Results:  (to be updated as more info comes in)

Unofficial Projected Tally:
Obama 25
Uncommitted 11

Link to original discussion on Michigan's CD Conventions

(All delegates being discussed are the 'Uncommitted' ones)

The contests of note are for:
CD 9 Female
CD 12 Female
CD 13 Female
CD 14 Female
CD 14 Male
CD 15 Female

All delegate listings without citations come from the Michiganders for Obama website.  Delegates listed with an [M] below were endorsed by Michiganders for Obama or Students 4 Obama, and can be firmly relied on to be Obama supporters.

CD 1 Delegates:
Abby Dart (Obama) [MFO]
Miles Baker (Obama) [Students 4 Obama]

CD 2 Delegates:  (Forum Post, better source when available.)
Joe Zainea (Obama)
Rillastine Wilkins (Obama)

CD 3 Delegates: (Media Source)
Armand Robinson (Obama)
Alice Corey (Obama) [MFO]

CD 4 Delegates:
Mary Bacon (Obama) [MFO]
Bob Ciaffone (Obama) [MFO]

CD 5 Delegates:
Floyd Clack (Obama) [MFO]
Geraldean Hall (Obama) [MFO]

CD 6 Delegates:
Marletta Seats (Obama) [MFO]
Mark Miller (Obama) [MFO]

CD 7 Delegates:
Leonard Smigielski (Obama)
Fran Sibly (Obama)

CD 8 Delegates: (Media Source)
Griffin Rivers (Obama)
Irene Cahill (Obama) [Teamsters]

CD 9 Delegates: (Party Website, Media Source)
Catherine Martin (Uncommitted) [UAW]
Doris Toney (Obama) [MFO]
Aldo Vagnozzi (Obama)

Martin, a UAW member, was remaining officially Uncommitted "because the UAW has not endorsed a candidate yet."  She beat out an MFO-endorsed candidate, perhaps by one vote.
Vagnozzi, a State Legislator, had long ago endorsed Obama.

CD 10 Delegates:
Rosie Fessler (Obama) [MFO]
Unknown Male (presumably Obama?)

CD 11 Delegates: (Forum Post, better source when available.)
Mike Siegrist (Obama) [MFO]
Marian Novak (Obama) [Teamsters]

CD 12 Delegates:  (Forum Post, better source when available.)
Rory Gamble (Uncommitted)
Jennifer Miller (Uncommitted)
Nancy Quarles (Uncommitted)

This 'Unity Slate,' endorsed by the UAW, SEIU, and other unions, won with apparently little opposition at the convention itself.  None of them have officially endorsed candidates---Quarles appears to have at one point been an Edwards supporter (to the tune of $2000), though she may have donated to Obama before then.

Reports indicate that all 3 have endorsed Obama.

CD 13 Delegates:
3 Union Delegates?

CD 14 Delegates:
4 Union Delegates?

CD 15 Delegates: (see discussion below)
Christina Montague (Obama) [MFO]
Lynne Schwartz (Obama) [MFO]
Derrick Jackson (Obama) [MFO]


Elsewhere in the state: (Media Source)

"In the two districts that cover Detroit [Kilpatrick's and Conyers' districts, CD-13 and CD-14], as well as in Rep. Sander Levin's district [CD-12], which covers part of Oakland and Macomb counties, Obama supporters lost to union-banked slates of candidates on Saturday."

"Elsewhere, Obama supporters fared well on Saturday....they captured both uncommitted slots at the 7th District Convention in Lansing, and...the group also succeeded at meetings in Flint [CD-5] and Western Michigan districts."

"The group's top two leaders, Montague and Washtenaw County Deputy Clerk Derrick Jackson, captured slots at the 15th District Convention in Romulus, along with another Obama supporter, Ann Arbor psychologist Lynne Schwartz....Montague won the first of two female uncommitted slots to be determined, but the second took three ballots to resolve. The Obama-backers' votes were split between Lynne Schwartz, an Ann Arbor psychologist, and Rachel Friedlander, a University of Michigan student. That kept Monroe County Democratic Party Chairwoman Denise Brooks in the running, until after the second round of voting and under more than a little pressure, Friedlander dropped out, giving Schwartz the necessary votes to win."


Not all of the Union supporters are necessarily covert Clinton supporters.  In the 15th CD...

"But as in other Southeast Michigan districts, there also was a group, apparently made up mostly of union members and centered on a group from Monroe County that argued uncommitted delegates should remain uncommitted....Jackson, Washtenaw County's chief of elections [and an Obama supporter], defeated Kevin Moore, a local Teamsters Union official, for the single male uncommitted slot from the district. Moore's union has endorsed Obama, and Moore said he would have cast his ballot for Obama at the convention if he'd won."


So, apparently I was wrong...Obama was not guaranteed 30 of these delegates, as Union-backed candidates were able to win an outright majority in the Detroit districts, apparently (?) winning all the delegates in CDs 12, 13, and 14, plus 1 in CD 9 [while losing in CD 15].  Obama did not have similar losses across the rest of the state, however.

Although the systems used to select delegates are 'proportional,' in a close race, in which neither side wants to give up a chance at winning all the delegates, it can devolve to a slate vs. slate race, in which one side or the other gets all the delegates.  If the Obama supporters had realized they weren't going to win all the delegates outright, they could have combined behind one candidate and at least 4 of the 10 delegates in CDs 12-14, but instead they lost them all.

An update given new information from DCW...

The male in CD 10 is Ken Pechette, who is Uncommitted and not for Obama, as I had assumed.

In CD 12, Jennifer Miller is confirmed by DCW as having endorsed Obama.

In CD 13, the delegates are:
Tim Killeen
Cecilia Walker
John Henry Davis

In CD 14, we still don't know the names of three of the delegates, but one of them is Dan Geb, a Teamster for Obama.

Net result of this new information: Obama +1 (to 26) among the Michigan Uncommitted delegation.

[Erc]

It doesn't make sense that in your scenario II.V, the number of Michigan delegates aren't also chopped in half, like Florida.

Well, it wasn't clear at the time I came up with the scenario that it would be chopped in half.  New results given the new ruling are imminent.

[Erc]

Although the media has reported that at least of 8 of the 13 Edwards delegates have endorsed Obama, there's been no official confirmation of this from the delegates themselves.

To be conservative, therefore, I'm switching 6 of the FL Edwards delegates back from Obama to Edwards.

After Puerto Rico, the situation stands thusly (including MT/SD superdelegates):

Obama 2080.5
Clinton 1914
Uncommitted 198
Yet to Vote 31
Edwards 9.5

The magic number after the MI/FL ruling is 2117...only 37 delegates away for Obama, now.

Obama will pick up at least 17 delegates in MT & SD, putting him only 20 delegates away, out of the over 200 remaining superdelegates / Edwards delegates.

[Erc]

South Dakota
Closed Primary
9 PM EDT Poll Closing
23 Delegates
--15 At-Large
--8 Unpledged

Polls close at 7 PM local everywhere in the state--i.e. 8 PM EDT in the eastern (CDT) half of the state, and 9 PM EDT in the western (MDT) half of the state.

At-Large Delegates:
--9 by "District"
--4 At-Large
--2 Pledged PLEO

Unpledged Delegates:
--4 DNC Members (3 Obama, 1 Uncommitted)
--1 Representative (Herseth-Sandlin, for Obama)
--1 Senator (Johnson, for Obama)
--1 Distinguished Party Leader (Daschle, for Obama)
--1 'Add-On' (selected by State Party Central Committee, June 21)


Montana
Open Primary
10 PM EDT Poll Closing
25 Delegates
--10 District
--6 At-Large
--9 Unpledged

District Delegates:
The 10 District delegates are chosen by the "old" CD boundaries from the 1980 census (when MT had two CDs), 5 delegates each.  One roughly corresponds to the eastern half of the state, the other to the western.

At-Large Delegates:
--4 At-Large
--2 Pledged PLEOs

Unpledged Delegates:
--5 DNC Members (3 Obama, 2 Uncommitted)
--2 Senators (both Uncommitted)
--1 Governor (Uncommitted)
--1 Add-On (selected at the State Convention, June

There is an official proscription in MT party rules against endorsing a candidate before the election, hence the lack of endorsements now.  At least one DNC member officially listed as Uncommitted now withdrew her endorsement of Obama due to this rule.

[Erc]

(How did three DNC members get away with endorsing Obama already, then?)

Looking over the original story again, it may just be for party leaders in the state...the affected superdelegate was the vice chairwoman of the state party---while on the same day she retracted her endorsement, a national committeewoman from MT endorsed Obama.

Original Story

So we can expect at least one (if not more) endorsements for Obama out of MT after Tuesday night.

[Erc]

In order to clinch tomorrow, Obama will need an additional 14 superdelegates.  That isn't an insignificant number for a one-day period, but it's not insurmountable either.

If he actually does have some in his back pocket, then it might be easier...but tomorrow evening might be an awkward time to do so.  (Remember, the polls don't close in Montana until 10 EDT, and pulling out his 10 Senators then is rubbing it in Clinton's face).

My bet is, there'll be around 7 endorsements tomorrow, a bit more than today, but not enough to clinch.  Hillary will make a speech that is all but a concession, and the major endorsements will come out on Wednesday, when he'll clinch.