Obama needs to poll over 50% to win NC. Democrat candidates traditionally overpoll in NC as compared to election day. Kerry polled 44% and got 43% on election day. Clinton was ahead in 1992 and ended up losing narrowly. I'd say it's a pure tossup at this point, but I still say McCain holds the state pretty narrowly on election day.
But none of those Democratic candidates had a decent ground game... could that help make up the polling difference this year?
Not trying to challenge your point, but isn't there a possibility that this year will be an exception from the past few elections in this state?
