$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Yank2133]

I mean of course it's not out of the question, the bill is very likely to pass and, in the short term, will be extremely easy for Republicans to point to as both a legislative win and a way they are 'giving back' to middle America. This will be extremely popular in red states, which are currently represented by anywhere from 6-10 Democratic senators. So of course they might add the 53rd - 58th ish votes. None would be the 50th or probably 51st vote, but if Manchin or Heitkamp can avoid their constituents using this as an excuse to vote against them why not take it? The I'll effects of this bill, such as they are, won't be felt for a while, so there's not much point in the short term for vulnerable senators to oppose it unless they think they can beat it.

That's just smart politics.

It is actually not smart politics.

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-donald-trump-somehow-failed-to-sell-massive-tax-cuts-to-democrats

People are really underselling how discredited the GOP is when it comes to tax policies. The Bush Tax Cuts did a number on them.

[PoliticalShelter]

What evidence that a tax bill that has about 25% approval rating is going to be extemely popular in red states? Let alone in the rest of the country.

I imagine that the tax bill will be met with mostly apathy in red states in all likelihood.

[Tintrlvr]

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Yeah, I call bull****.

This sounds like wishful thinking from some GOP aide. No Dem is going to vote for this bill.

Not after they've been voting against the bill thus far. No one who voted against the motion to proceed or in favor of the motion to send back to committee is going to vote for the bill, and that's all of the Democrats.

[Tintrlvr]

It may give him a boost next April when the median household finds out they are indeed getting a tax cut

Wouldn't happen until April 2019, so too late for Republicans losing seats in the midterms. April 2018 will be taxes for 2017, which are unaffected by the bill.

[UncleSam]

A. The tax bill is no where near 25%. It's around 35-40% of the adult population, which makes it closer to 40-45% of the LV population.

B. Who do you think is that 35%? Blue state families who are losing their SALT deductions? No, the bill is popular amongst people who will receive the largest tax breaks: upper-middle class families, the wealthy, and large red state rural families who can benefit from the child tax deduction increases. These voters are overwhelmingly Republican, and they reside primarily in states like West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Wisconsin, etc.

C. The bill will have immediate positive effects. You think families won't notice they're saving 4k next year? Of course they will, and they won't give a flying f!#k about Schumer and Pelosi screaming that the wealthy got even larger tax breaks and the debt will get out of control and blah blah blah. There will be hell to pay LATER on those issues for sure, but if you really think a Republican family is going to look at a tax break self-proclaimed 'Christmas present' from their very own orange Santa in a negative light then you are deluding yourself. People just want to be happy this Christmas, they don't want to worry about the future )even if it's the responsible thing to do).

Anyway we will see, but it's not surprising how little resistance there has been to this, even with the mandate repeal, from Collins, Murkowski, etc.

[Matty]

I still have yet to see evidence that the average middle class family is going to see a tax increase out of this

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate voting on motion by Sen. Casey to send bill back to committee.

[Pyro]

I still have yet to see evidence that the average middle class family is going to see a tax increase out of this

Try even Googling "Trump Tax Plan Middle Class".
Literally any reputable link will explain how this thing is a joke.

[Matty]

I still have yet to see evidence that the average middle class family is going to see a tax increase out of this

Try even Googling "Trump Tax Plan Middle Class".
Literally any reputable link will explain how this thing is a joke.

marty's taxes could go up 100% and marty would still say it's cutting his taxes.

The CBO, the tax foundation, and the tax policy center ALL find the bill raises after tax income for ALL income groups

There are legit reasons to oppose this bill, but you don't have to lie and say it raises taxes on the middle class

[OSR stands with Israel]

I still have yet to see evidence that the average middle class family is going to see a tax increase out of this

Try even Googling "Trump Tax Plan Middle Class".
Literally any reputable link will explain how this thing is a joke.

yah no:


https://taxfoundation.org/tax-cut-amended-senate-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Casey to send the bill back to committee has failed by a vote of 48-51. Sen. McCain abstained.

[Pyro]

I still have yet to see evidence that the average middle class family is going to see a tax increase out of this

Try even Googling "Trump Tax Plan Middle Class".
Literally any reputable link will explain how this thing is a joke.

yah no:


https://taxfoundation.org/tax-cut-amended-senate-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/

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Right-wing Reaganomic think tanks are the furthest thing from a reputable source. Honestly.

[Matty]

Corker and flake announce they are unwavering no's

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Corker and flake announce they are unwavering no's

Source?

[Matty]

Matt fuller

[BudgieForce]

Excuse me?

[junior chįmp]

Corker and flake announce they are unwavering no's

Oh look 2 nos....looks like Pence is gonna bring out the gavel and end this Kabuki theater farce

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I looked through his twitter account, and no, Corker and Flake haven't said they're against, they're just showing signs of being up to something. His tweet about Kennedy being okay with the trigger now is useful though, as it allows me to move Kennedy back to Safe Support:

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed: N/A

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%. She has, however, recently been given assurances that Trump supports both bills, and voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. He surprisingly voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed, and some of his concerns have been addressed, but his previous statements of opposition have not been explicitly revoked and thus MAY still be valid.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Likely Support:
Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 45 GOP Senators


Overall: 48 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 4 TOSS-UP

[OSR stands with Israel]

I still have yet to see evidence that the average middle class family is going to see a tax increase out of this

Try even Googling "Trump Tax Plan Middle Class".
Literally any reputable link will explain how this thing is a joke.

yah no:


https://taxfoundation.org/tax-cut-amended-senate-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Right-wing Reaganomic think tanks are the furthest thing from a reputable source. Honestly.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/tax-foundation/



It has a higher rating then even the NY Times when it comes to Factual Reporting

[Person Man]

Corker and flake announce they are unwavering no's

Oh look 2 nos....looks like Pence is gonna bring out the gavel and end this Kabuki theater farce

For all we know, that's what it is. Basically tax cuts get passed by the Trump admin unilaterally.

[BudgieForce]

The tax plan raises the deficit by 1 Trillion bucks according to the JCT.

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/936334245240492032

[junior chįmp]

The tax plan raises the deficit by 1 Trillion bucks according to the JCT.

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/936334245240492032

I can guarantee you, and book mark this, that the defecit next fiscal year will alone be 1 Trillion

[GeorgiaModerate]

The tax plan raises the deficit by 1 Trillion bucks according to the JCT.

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/936334245240492032

I can guarantee you, and book mark this, that the defecit next fiscal year will alone be 1 Trillion

A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money.

[BudgieForce]

If Corker doesnt want to vote for the bill, he has his out.

[Matty]

1 trillion over ten years really isn't all that scary

You guys support a healthcare system that will cost 32 trillion over ten years