She would have won it, and this would be the national map:
I think Arkansas and North Carolina would have been tossup states and Arizona would be tossup/tilt R. While Hillary did win the Arizona Democratic Primary in 2008 and I think she would have done better there than Obama did (since the state did swing slightly Democratic), I still think native son McCain would have won there by mid single digits.
I don't know if she could have eked out a victory in North Carolina like Obama ultimately did, because as 2016 showed us, black voters were not as energized to vote for a white woman as they did for a black man. Obama won the North Carolina Democratic Primary by 14 points even after then-Governor Mike Easley endorsed Hillary.
I would have rated Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee as Likely R, not tossups. Alaska, Montana, both Dakotas, and South Carolina would be Safe Republican. She lost all three of those in the primaries, so not sure why one would think they would be tossups, especially Alaska after the Palin selection. I know polls showed Obama within striking distance in Alaska, but remember that he won the caucus there by a 3-to-1 margin. To this day, I don't understand why he was so popular up there.
She would have won Missouri by a hair, as the white working-class voters in the rural parts of this state (who delivered landslide victories to Hillary in the primary) had not entirely abandoned the Democratic Party back in 2008. Those four counties in the Bootheel (Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, and Pemiscot) are heavily black and swung pretty heavily to McCain in the general. Draw your own conclusions.
I think she would have done significantly better in Oklahoma as well. I seem to remember some polls showing her trailing McCain by as little as seven points there.
