It's really amazing how one debate completely turned the tide

[Cryptic]

We're not going to recover the lead we had at the start of the month, but I do think good performances in the 2nd and 3rd debates might nudge Obama back into the lead, even if it's only 1 or 2 points. 

As for why one debate changed the game so much, it's the saying "People vote their fears, not their hopes."  Before the debate, people feared Mitt Romney, but the debate changed their perception enough they now fear the economy more, even though the President's Approval ratings are still good. 

I think we can still pull this out of the fire, but it is going to be a narrow win, like Bush's victories. 

[Cryptic]

The possibility of a realignment is hovering over this election.  It was when I thought the GOP would win in 2008, and I'd give it 30% currently. 

What do you base that 30% on?  The race is right now 50/50 and a Romney win would be almost identical to Bush's wins in terms of popular vote and states won.  Even if Romney is declared the winner of the next two debates, I don't see him gaining enough ground to move beyond the swing states.