Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Drew]

Underly leading by over 10% in Winnebago w/80% in.  Trump won the county by 4%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerr leading 56-44 in Waupaca County...which only has the town of Caledonia in now. Trump won that town by over 40 points. So...

[Matty]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

[walleye26]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerr leads by just 16 points in Oconto County, a county Trump also won by over 40 points, and looking at the town results he won by over 16 points in every town.

[Matty]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

[redjohn]

This is a real vindication of the hyper-partisan strategy. The WI Democratic Party came out hard in support of Dr. Underly, with every major Dem official (besides Evers) endorsing her and campaigning for her, along with the party's official endorsement. Most Republicans endorsed Kerr, but the Wisconsin GOP didn't embrace her like the Dems did with Dr. Underly. Seems it had zero downside for Dr. Underly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

Man, you mean Democrats care more about public education? Shocker!

[Ferguson97]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

People tend to favor Democrats on educational policy in general IIRC

[Drew]

Kerr getting a 62%-38% margin in Waukesha w/95% in.  Was 60%-39% Trump, so a slight overperformance.  She seems to be underperforming in most other places.  However, Milwaukee is still out, so it still remains to be seen what the turnout and margin looks like there.

Underly leading 80%-20% in Dane w/63% in, was 75%-23% Biden.

[redjohn]

Underly above 80% in Dane is, yet again, incredible. Dane's one of the fastest-growing areas in the state and will be one of the main reasons WI remains competitive for Democrats for a long time to come.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just looked at the Jefferson County precinct numbers...absolutely brutal for Kerr. I assumed she was trailing because the Lake Mills area was in. While that is true, Underly got over 60% in Lake Mills, which Biden won with just under 54%. Underly is on track for a double digit win.

[Matty]

Wait, is Kerr even a republican? Just saw on twitter that obama's education secretary endorsed her?

Are Kerr and underly both dems?

[Nyvin]

24% in,  Underly leads by 12%, and absolutely nothing in from Milwaukee.

Looks like Underly is running away with it.

Wait, is Kerr even a republican? Just saw on twitter that obama's education secretary endorsed her?

Are Kerr and underly both dems?

Officially yes, but almost all of Kerr's endorsements come from Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wait, is Kerr even a republican? Just saw on twitter that obama's education secretary endorsed her?

Are Kerr and underly both dems?

She's not a Republican and she openly endorsed Biden. However she also supports things like vouchers and charter schools, so the Republicans rallied around her instead of backing one of their own candidates.

[Matty]

When does Ron Johnson announce his retirement? lol

these numbers must terrify him

[Not Me, Us]

When does Ron Johnson announce his retirement? lol

these numbers must terrify him

This means absolutely nothing. It's a nonpartisan race for a position that Democrats disproportionately care about compared to Republicans.

[Matty]

Wait, is Kerr even a republican? Just saw on twitter that obama's education secretary endorsed her?

Are Kerr and underly both dems?

She's not a Republican and she openly endorsed Biden. However she also supports things like vouchers and charter schools, so the Republicans rallied around her instead of backing one of their own candidates.

oh, ok. that makes sense.

I don't think wisconsin, a state with a very good k-12 system, is into vouchers that much. Understandable that voters would be sour towards a candidate with that message.

[Dr. Arch]

Underly is hitting about 80% in Dane. This is blowout territory already.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wait, is Kerr even a republican? Just saw on twitter that obama's education secretary endorsed her?

Are Kerr and underly both dems?

She's not a Republican and she openly endorsed Biden. However she also supports things like vouchers and charter schools, so the Republicans rallied around her instead of backing one of their own candidates.

oh, ok. that makes sense.

I don't think wisconsin, a state with a very good k-12 system, is into vouchers that much. Understandable that voters would be sour towards a candidate with that message.

Milwaukee has actually had a voucher program for decades. They're probably mostly a nonstarter in the rest of the state, but Kerr is from Milwaukee County.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What about the judical and special elections ?

[walleye26]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.

State Superintendent races are heavily Democratic electorates.

is there a particular reason why?

the state is as purple as they come on national, gubernatorial, and senatorial races.

Why the blue tinge downballot?

Man, you mean Democrats care more about public education? Shocker!

To answer the question, it’s basically this: conservatives are really motivated for their courts, so SCOWIS races are always close because WOW really turns out for judges. There isn’t a big motivator for State Superintendent. Dane County really turns out for its education races, because it’s the UW/Govt center. Also, the teachers Union gets super involved in these things, so a LOT of teachers vote. In Wisconsin, teachers are pretty blue.

[Drew]

63%-37% Underly in Milwaukee w/92% in.  Biden won 69%-29%.  I had a feeling there would be an underperformance here.

[Nyvin]

What about the judical and special elections ?

Davis (D) got stomped in District 2.

District 3 is close but only 19% in