Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[ctherainbow]

After former 12th District Representative Tom Marino stepped down earlier this year, a special election was called for the district, for May 12th.  The matchup is 2018 district challenger Marc Friedenberg, a Penn State cybersecurity professor from Centre County, vs Fred Keller, PA House Rep for the 85th District, which covers portions of Snyder and Union counties.

The 12th is PA's third most Republican district, and the odds of the seat flipping are tiny.  That said, watch the margins; in 2018, Friedenberg was blown out by incumbent Tom Marino in a nearly 2-1 defeat(66%-34%/161,047-82,825).  This election will be the most widespread new non-polling data set we have in PA before 2020, barring unforeseen circumstances, and though it's a largely rural area that's not usually competitive, a significant partisan swing in this district could point to Pennsylvania continuing to come back left after the 2016 surprise.  

Trigger warning - anecdotal evidence/first-hand experiences:

I volunteered for Marc's campaign in 2018, and have been in the run-up to this special election as well.  I have to say that compared to 2018, the ground game is incredibly strong this cycle, with canvassing teams in my county(Susquehanna) covering about three times the number of locations that were targeted last cycle.  Marc's strong in the southern part of the district, especially Centre County, but this cycle they've been focusing more heavily on the more rural northern portions of the district, even canvassing out in places like Potter County(if you're from PA, you know about Potter County; if you're not, think Alabama but cold  ).  So I fully expect the margins to come down at least a few points towards Marc, but if he manages to drag Keller significantly below 60%, I think 2020 Republicans need to be a bit more worried about pulling off a 2016 PA repeat than they already are.

So what do you guys think?  Am I delusional?  Will Snyder County small-business icon Fred Keller curbstomp far-left techie firebrand Marc Friedenberg with 85% of the vote?  Will secret rural Democratic voters rise from the slumber they've been in since the last time this district elected a Dem(2008) to #MakePennsylvaniaBlueAgain?  Discuss.

[ctherainbow]

What i expect? Low turnout and fairly standard for this district result: about 65-35 Republican.

This is definitely 100% possible.  I'm thinking(perhaps too optimistically) that it might be closer to 60-40 Republican, based on the ground game improvements I've seen+it being a special(though it also coincides with local elections, so that will likely lessen the "special effect")+loss of Marino's incumbency/name recognition, but who knows.  Rural Pennsylvania gonna rural Pennsylvania.    

[ctherainbow]

An old saing: Pennsylvania is a Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and ... Alabama between them, comes to mind...)))

That saying comes to mind far too often for me when watching local politics.   

It's also common to hear the stretch of PA between Philly and Pitt referred to as "Pennsyltucky".   

[ctherainbow]

65/35. There can’t be much of a Democratic turnout operation.

Marc's had a phenomenal campaign thus far, and my county Democrats are more excited about this special election than they were about this seat in 2018.  The campaign's hit every major town in the district+had roving rural canvassing teams out since the week after Marc announced.  Will it be enough to win the district?  Nah.  But it's kind of condescending to call  thousands of hours of volunteer work "not much".

[ctherainbow]

Finally settling in to watch the results come in after some loooooooong weeks of working the Friedenberg campaign in PA12.  Turnout in the area is low as expected for a special election/primary, but (Atlas trigger warning, anecdotal evidence and personal experience) having traveled my entire county several times over and talked to hundreds of voters the past few weeks, I'm expecting the win margin for Keller to be more around 60R/40D, and anything above 40/approaching 45 is PHENOMENAL for rural NEPA and Central PA Dems.  We'll have to see.  The Trump rally in Montoursville yesterday could have more of an effect than I expect, though.

Either way I'll be sweating all night because this is my district.    

[ctherainbow]

Why would anyone even waste time trying to flip this seat?

Because Marc would make a phenomenal Congressman and could bring great knowledge about cybersecurity to a policymaking chamber that is in large part made up of old people who can barely set up their own Facebook?  Because agricultural industry alternatives like medical marijuana and industrial hemp need to be encouraged and supported if we want our agrarian communities to be viable in the 21st century?  Because we believe in him?  Etc?

Maybe I'm just not old enough to have the hope and fight beat out of me yet.

[ctherainbow]

Why are you sweating? This is safe R no matter how many hours you and your pals put in.

Dude, I joined this community so that I could enjoy watching electoral results and discussing politics with people, not for my excitement about an election I worked hard on to be mocked.

[ctherainbow]

His signature literally indicates that his loyalty is with the Democrats despite the fact that his party registration is with the Republicans. Do not be a fool.

I'm pretty sure the issue isn't with my party affiliation/support, but with the fact that I'm excited about a race that Bagel doesn't believe will be competitive, which I guess translates into mocking me for my excitement?  Because he assumes I'm being delusional and think Marc will win, rather than my stated goal of watching the margins?  I'm not sure, frankly.  

Anyway, I'm interested to see what the Centre County margins will look like, given that a hefty chunk of the red portions of the county aren't in PA-12.

[ctherainbow]

Honestly, I'd be decently happy with a 60-40 type result.

Same here.  Anything above 40 would be super exciting.

[ctherainbow]

Come on Friedenberg, did that Trump rally really boost Keller or is this just a solid R county.

All the counties in the district are pretty solidly R besides Centre.  Margins in Lycoming, Susquehanna, Union, Northumberland, and Clinton will be important to watch, though.

Lycoming especially will be fun to analyze given that the former R rep for the district was from Lycoming, so comparing the loss of that hometown effect vs the Trump rally will be interesting.

[ctherainbow]

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Fred Keller
Republican
9,135   70.2%
Marc Friedenberg
Democrat
3,883   29.8
13,018 votes, 12% reporting (65 of 555 precincts)

Keller even with Marino in Juanita County

I'm giggling uncontrollably @ "Juanita" County.   

[ctherainbow]

Wasserman says Centre will determine who wins

Says rural areas in line with 2018, but if Centre turnout spikes big, dems could steal the race

Centre turnout would have to be COLOSSAL for this district to be an actual D win. 

[ctherainbow]

NYT's called it for Keller.  Now I wait to see the margins.  

[ctherainbow]

Anyway, I’m guessing Centre county comes in last here

It was actually my county, Susquehanna.  I almost expected it.  We're just slow around here.    

[ctherainbow]

Yeah all that canvassing really brought the margins down.

It did, actually! 

Outside of the counties with major extenuating factors like home turf for either candidate(Centre, Union, and Snyder) or the Trump rally(Lycoming), every single county but Northumberland had better Dem margins than the district as a whole when compared to 2018, and 7 of those 11 counties had better margins individually than they did in 2018.  The Trump rally in Lycoming County really crippled Marc; it's the most populous county in the district(Centre is only partially in the district), and voted over three points to the right of 2018 this time around.  And the Susquehanna Valley counties like Union and Snyder which Keller represented in the PA state House swung hard right as well; 4.6 and 5.4 points respectively.

So sure, the canvassing and phone banking and thousands of volunteer hours didn't swing the district, but in areas where they were the major outreach effort, they absolutely made a difference!