The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney 69.8
Perry 11.9
Cain 9.5
Gingrich 2.0

Romney and Perry are too high (Perry should be 0.5), and Cain and Newt are too low....this would be how I handicap the race:

Cain 40%
Newt 25%
some-other-antiRomney-not-yet-in-the-race 20%
Romney 15%

[Torie]

Romney 69.8
Perry 11.9
Cain 9.5
Gingrich 2.0

Romney and Perry are too high (Perry should be 0.5), and Cain and Newt are too low....this would be how I handicap the race:

Cain 40%
Newt 25%
some-other-antiRomney-not-yet-in-the-race 20%
Romney 15%

Mittens has but a 15% chance eh?  Yes, you should short him!  Mortgage the house.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Cain 40%
Newt 25%
some-other-antiRomney-not-yet-in-the-race 20%
Romney 15%

Mittens has but a 15% chance eh?  Yes, you should short him!  Mortgage the house.

so, if Cain or Newt don't both implode (and Newt won't), you think Romney wins a two man contest between either Romney-vs-Cain or Romney-vs-Newt?

[milhouse24]

As I've said before, I think elections and the winners depend on the type of personality and the seriousness the candidates exhibit.  I never thought Perry was serious or put much thought in the presidency until a few months ago, and it showed in his debates and in his polling. 

In 2008, Romney was all over the place and trying to in-authentically be a hardline christian conservative and voters didn't buy into the recent change.  But Romney has always been a serious businessman, and that's role he's comfortable playing and the public is comfortable seeing him in this role. 

I think Republican voters will end up with Romney as the nominee because above all else, they want a fiscally competent, serious, and responsible leader.  When candidates are wishy-washy, inexperienced, or too mild-mannered, then voters will be turned off. 

I also think voters coalesce around the candidate or nominee and are shaped by his personality.  Romney has to get buy-in from voters about his personality and his vision and leadership. 

[Sam Spade]

I have to agree that Newt is going to get some play again.  I don't think he has it either, of course, but don't be surprised to see him start to seriously move up in the polls to a competitive position.  Especially when the Cain boomlet fades.

Just as an FYI - if I thought that any of the candidates in the Republican primary could be taken seriously by the Republican base as a Presidential candidate after the usual scrutiny, Romney would be dead meat.  Otherwise, in the end, he'll be turned to out of desperation.  Which should say something, both short-term and long-term about things.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Cain is not a serious candidate and is running to earn himself a more prominent position as a talking head and to sell books. If you don't believe me, look at his schedule and his non-existent campaign in Iowa. He is a joke.

[Averroës Nix]

Cain is not a serious candidate and is running to earn himself a more prominent position as a talking head and to sell books. If you don't believe me, look at his schedule and his non-existent campaign in Iowa. He is a joke.

"Herm & Newt's Campaign to Sell Crap and Get Airtime"

[Mr. Morden]

Both Romney and Perry drop, with the latter now down to 10, and the former now at Cain's 9-9-9 plan upside down.  The devil's in the details.

Romney 66.6
Perry 10.0
Cain 9.0
Huntsman 3.0
Paul 2.9
Gingrich 2.3
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4

[Bull Moose Base]

Both Romney and Perry drop, with the latter now down to 10, and the former now at Cain's 9-9-9 plan upside down.  The devil's in the details.

Romney 66.6
Perry 10.0
Cain 9.0
Huntsman 3.0
Paul 2.9
Gingrich 2.3
Bachmann 1.1
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4

If Cain is at 9 for 3 months in row, it's definitely a sign.

[Torie]

Cain 40%
Newt 25%
some-other-antiRomney-not-yet-in-the-race 20%
Romney 15%

Mittens has but a 15% chance eh?  Yes, you should short him!  Mortgage the house.

so, if Cain or Newt don't both implode (and Newt won't), you think Romney wins a two man contest between either Romney-vs-Cain or Romney-vs-Newt?

Yes, of course.  He is the only one who is a plausible candidate, that can be taken seriously by the voters who are in real play.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry regains some ground, and Gingrich is now ahead of Huntsman and in 5th place

GOP nomination

Romney 67.4
Perry 11.5
Cain 9.2
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.7
Huntsman 2.4
Bachmann 1.0
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4

Iowa

Romney 39.0
Perry 19.0
Cain 15.0
Bachmann 12.1
Paul 9.5
Gingrich 3.0
Santorum 1.5

NH

Romney 80.9
Huntsman 4.0
Paul 4.0
Cain 3.6
Perry 3.0
Gingrich 0.4
Bachmann 0.3
Santorum 0.3

Winning Party

GOP 49.5
Dems 48.3
other 2.8

[Yelnoc]

Cain is still undervalued.

[Bull Moose Base]

Cain is still undervalued.

Cain is on Meet the Press tomorrow.  Sailing past Perry or Huntsman both seem like plausible consequences of that.

[Averroës Nix]

Cain is on Meet the Press tomorrow.  Sailing past Perry or Huntsman both seem like plausible consequences of that.

He's already well past Huntsman, who is currently trading below Gingrich and Paul.

Do candidates typically experience a significant bump on Intrade after appearing on the Sunday shows? I think that a Gingrich-style flub is more likely than an increase in momentum.

[Bull Moose Base]

Cain is on Meet the Press tomorrow.  Sailing past Perry or Huntsman both seem like plausible consequences of that.

He's already well past Huntsman, who is currently trading below Gingrich and Paul.

Do candidates typically experience a significant bump on Intrade after appearing on the Sunday shows? I think that a Gingrich-style flub is more likely than an increase in momentum.

I meant pass Huntsman on the way down.  If he navigates the interview, I think he could climb up the small gap past Perry but a misstep and he could crash.  He still feels to me like a Palin on Couric interview waiting to happen.  But I told Cainmentum months ago he'd crash imminently and here he is leading most national polls in October so... who knows?    Cain will presumably take his shots at Romney and be asked to reconcile that with his 2008 endorsement of him.  We'll see how he handles it.

[Yelnoc]

Cain is on Meet the Press tomorrow.  Sailing past Perry or Huntsman both seem like plausible consequences of that.

He's already well past Huntsman, who is currently trading below Gingrich and Paul.

Do candidates typically experience a significant bump on Intrade after appearing on the Sunday shows? I think that a Gingrich-style flub is more likely than an increase in momentum.

I meant pass Huntsman on the way down.  If he navigates the interview, I think he could climb up the small gap past Perry but a misstep and he could crash.  He still feels to me like a Palin on Couric interview waiting to happen.  But I told Cainmentum months ago he'd crash imminently and here he is leading most national polls in October so... who knows?    Cain will presumably take his shots at Romney and be asked to reconcile that with his 2008 endorsement of him.  We'll see how he handles it.

Agreed, the interview will be important.  I doubt he will have a Palin-style flop; Cain has been under public scrutiny for quite a while now.  He won't come into the interview unprepared.

And you can call me Yelnoc

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Romney 65.6
Cain 9.5


I think Romney has peaked on Intrade....now would be an excellent entry point to short Romney and buy Cain

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: Perry's on the rebound.  And Rubio's recovered most of the ground he lost since saying he wasn't interested in the vice presidency.

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 67.6
Perry 13.0
Cain 8.8
Paul 2.7
Gingrich 2.5
Huntsman 2.5
Bachmann 1.3
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.5

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 27.1
Portman 9.0
Christie 8.0
McDonnell 8.0
Cain 7.8
Martinez 5.0
Thune 5.0
Ryan 3.3
Daniels 3.0
Huntsman 3.0
Pawlenty 3.0
Perry 3.0

[© tweed]

there's another debate tonight?  Christ

[Yelnoc]

Can we get "this time in 2007" stats, please?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

there's another debate tonight?  Christ

and a dozen more after tonight

[Mr. Morden]

there's another debate tonight?  Christ

If it makes you feel better, the next one after tonight isn't for another three weeks.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Perry rebounds slightly, and Romney drops.  But the big winner is Obama, as the Dems are back to a tie with the GOP on "winning party".

Up: Perry
Down: Romney

GOP nominee

Romney 64.3
Perry 14.5
Cain 8.0
Gingrich 2.6
Huntsman 2.5
Paul 2.5
Bachmann 1.3
Santorum 0.9
Huckabee 0.7
Johnson 0.5

Winning Party

Dems 49.0
GOP 49.0
other 2.6

[Mr. Morden]

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 72.9
Obama 13.0
Gore 5.0
Edwards 4.0
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.4

Republicans
Giuliani 44.5
Romney 25.6
Thompson 13.0
Paul 7.4
McCain 6.6
Huckabee 4.1
Rice 1.7
Gingrich 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

GOP nomination

Romney 66.8
Perry 15.1
Cain 7.6
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.6
Huntsman 2.5
Bachmann 1.2
Santorum 0.6
Huckabee 0.4
Johnson 0.4

Winning Individual

Obama 49.1
Romney 33.0
Perry 6.5
Cain 3.4
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 1.8
Huntsman 1.3
Clinton 1.2
Bachmann 0.5
Palin 0.4
Biden 0.3
Santorum 0.3