🇦🇹 Austrian Elections & Politics 6.0 - Upper Austria election: 26 Sept. 2021

[Tender Branson]

A new Spectra/OÖN poll for the upcoming state elections in Upper Austria is out.

I will post the findings later.

Here is the full poll:

Read more about the Upper Austria state election here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Upper_Austrian_state_election

And here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=352752.msg7839919#msg7839919

Some important findings from the poll:

# 85% turnout expected (which I think is far too high, +3% vs. 2015 during the „refugee“ election)
# Gov. Stelzer (ÖVP) very popular
# FPÖ still doing much better than Austria-wide
# Greens doing really well there despite national headwinds
# SPÖ going slightly up, but still below 2015 levels
# NEOS doing badly, frontrunner is unknown and even young people vote ÖVP or Green

[Tender Branson]

New Puls24/IFDD poll:



Worst result for the ÖVP since fall 2019, also kinda the worst numbers for the Greens since then.

All opposition parties are gaining ground.

43% say that ÖVP-Greens will fall apart before their term is up in 2024
42% say it will hold the full term (lol)

Die Online-Umfrage wurde vom Institut für Demoskopie & Datenanalyse im Auftrag von PULS 24 durchgeführt. Im Zeitraum vom 24. Bis zum 30. März 2021 wurden dafür 802 Personen online befragt. Die Schwankungsbreite liegt bei +/- 3,5 Prozent.

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/die-grosse-puls-24-umfrage-oevp-mit-niedrigstem-wert-seit-2019-liegt-aber-immer-noch-deutlich-voran/230814

[Flyersfan232]

New Puls24/IFDD poll:



Worst result for the ÖVP since fall 2019, also kinda the worst numbers for the Greens since then.

All opposition parties are gaining ground.

43% say that ÖVP-Greens will fall apart before their term is up in 2024
42% say it will hold the full term (lol)

Die Online-Umfrage wurde vom Institut für Demoskopie & Datenanalyse im Auftrag von PULS 24 durchgeführt. Im Zeitraum vom 24. Bis zum 30. März 2021 wurden dafür 802 Personen online befragt. Die Schwankungsbreite liegt bei +/- 3,5 Prozent.

https://www.puls24.at/news/politik/die-grosse-puls-24-umfrage-oevp-mit-niedrigstem-wert-seit-2019-liegt-aber-immer-noch-deutlich-voran/230814

If greens ovp fall apart will the ovp team up with the fpo or go for new election so Kurtz and go for a chance to screw neons too

[Tender Branson]

If greens ovp fall apart will the ovp team up with the fpo or go for new election so Kurtz and go for a chance to screw neons too

Maybe with the SPÖ.

Or new elections.

And then nobody knows what will happen: maybe an Israel scenario.

[TheSaint250]

Why is NEOS on the rise?

[Tender Branson]

Why is NEOS on the rise?

Mostly because A) they are an opposition party and B) they are an alternative for (younger) people who have enough from the system parties ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ. There could even be some switching from former Green voters to NEOS. An increasing number of people want to see NEOS in a future government (especially after their Salzburg and Vienna state government participation) and see what they can accomplish.

[Tender Branson]

This is dangerous:

Austrians lose trust in democracy, the political culture in the country and its institutions.

A Market poll conducted in weekly waves since last year has shown trust in all the indicators above fall to record lows.



https://www.market.at/newsroom/ein-jahr-corona-vertrauen-in-staatliche-institutionen-schwer-beschaedigt/

[Tender Branson]

It is interesting to note that in previous election years with such bad indicators on democracy or the political culture, voters strongly chose the FPÖ as a protest vote.

Not so this time.

And the indicators are as bad as never before since WW2.

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the „Kurier“:



Chancellor vote:



Coalition preference:



https://www.ogm.at/2021/04/03/sonntagsfrage-kurier-april/

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-zeigt-umsturz-im-waehlerverhalten/401340597

[Tender Branson]

New Market/Standard poll has the SPÖ at the highest level in 2 years:

36% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
12% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% Others

48% ÖVP-Greens
51% SPÖ-FPÖ-NEOS

51% ÖVP-FPÖ
48% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125587095/tuerkis-gruene-koalition-hat-laut-umfrage-ihre-mehrheit-verloren

[Tender Branson]

Voters don’t really care so far, but long-term it doesn’t look good for Kurz:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/vaccine-row-and-domestic-leaks-tarnish-austrian-leader-s-image-1.4527415

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz has now fallen from sky-high popularity ratings to 5th place of the most trusted Austrian politicians, according to pollster OGM:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125696730/vertrauen-in-die-bundesregierung-schwindet-weiter-stark

https://www.ogm.at/2021/04/09/ogm-apa-vertrauensindex-bundespolitiker-april-2021/

This is because of the recent Postenschacher scandal involving the ÖVP (corruption and nepotism through trading and staffing of political offices with ÖVP cronies).

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP drops to 33% in new „Profil“ magazine poll.

That’s the lowest in more than 2 years.

The FPÖ reaches a new high of 19% and has recovered from their Ibiza-Video scandal in 2019.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-und-kanzler-kurz-verlieren/401345966

Tender Branson analysis:

The Kurz-ÖVP gained a lot of new voters after his takeover in early 2017: first, a lot of traditional soft FPÖ voters who found the Strache/Kickl policies too radical and after the Covid crisis hit early last year, the ÖVP ballooned to 45% - attracting SPÖ/FPÖ and NEOS voters.

They have lost all of the latter again during the past half year with their bad Covid management and now they are even losing their foundation of soft FPÖ voters that Kurz managed to bind to the party after the 2015-16 migrant invasion ...

[Tender Branson]

A new „Triple M“ poll for Vienna shows the new left-liberal SPÖ/NEOS government gaining, the FPÖ recovering as well and the federal government parties ÖVP/Greens losing support:



https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/sechs-monate-nach-der-wahl-rot-pink-legt-weiter-zu/401347172

[Astatine]

Whoever is bored can watch the whole footage of the Ibiza videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1y1GtNgGiAUBfQz87ltjag

[CumbrianLefty]

ÖVP drops to 33% in new „Profil“ magazine poll.

That’s the lowest in more than 2 years.

The FPÖ reaches a new high of 19% and has recovered from their Ibiza-Video scandal in 2019.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-und-kanzler-kurz-verlieren/401345966

Tender Branson analysis:

The Kurz-ÖVP gained a lot of new voters after his takeover in early 2017: first, a lot of traditional soft FPÖ voters who found the Strache/Kickl policies too radical and after the Covid crisis hit early last year, the ÖVP ballooned to 45% - attracting SPÖ/FPÖ and NEOS voters.

They have lost all of the latter again during the past half year with their bad Covid management and now they are even losing their foundation of soft FPÖ voters that Kurz managed to bind to the party after the 2015-16 migrant invasion ...

Though you didn't mention this, it shows the OVP ahead of the SPO by "only" 33-24 - when was the last time they had that lead in single figures?

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP drops to 33% in new „Profil“ magazine poll.

That’s the lowest in more than 2 years.

The FPÖ reaches a new high of 19% and has recovered from their Ibiza-Video scandal in 2019.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-und-kanzler-kurz-verlieren/401345966

Tender Branson analysis:

The Kurz-ÖVP gained a lot of new voters after his takeover in early 2017: first, a lot of traditional soft FPÖ voters who found the Strache/Kickl policies too radical and after the Covid crisis hit early last year, the ÖVP ballooned to 45% - attracting SPÖ/FPÖ and NEOS voters.

They have lost all of the latter again during the past half year with their bad Covid management and now they are even losing their foundation of soft FPÖ voters that Kurz managed to bind to the party after the 2015-16 migrant invasion ...

Though you didn't mention this, it shows the OVP ahead of the SPO by "only" 33-24 - when was the last time they had that lead in single figures?

Exactly 2 years ago.

[Tender Branson]

Austria's health minister resigns, saying he's overworked

Austria's health minister announced his resignation Tuesday, saying that he couldn't continue in the grueling job of helping lead the country's coronavirus response because of persistent personal health problems caused by overwork.

Rudolf Anschober, 60, had been health minister since January 2020, when his Green party became the junior partner in a governing coalition under conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

The soft-spoken minister has been one of the main faces of Austria's coronavirus response, which has gathered mixed reviews. Wolfgang Mueckstein, a Vienna-based doctor, was named as Anschober’s successor.

Anschober, who suffered a burnout nine years ago, said he had experienced two episodes of sudden fatigue in the past month, as well as high blood pressure and tinnitus.

“My impression is that it isn’t 15 months, more like 15 years,” he said of his time in office.

Anschober said he had “clearly overworked” and hadn't felt “completely fit” for several weeks. His condition was not burnout, he added, but doctors advised him to take a break.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/austrias-health-minister-resigns-overworked-77039270

Wolfgang Mückstein (a doctor, also from the Greens) will replace him:



https://orf.at/stories/3209005

Sigrid Pilz was also asked, but she declined. With Pilz, our cabinet would have been majority female again, like at the start of the government.

Too bad Anschober has been worn out in such a manner by Covid and the Kurz-ÖVP ... he was a good man in politics.

[Tender Branson]

There’s talk of internal divisions in the FPÖ.

And if that’s not enough: Strache is back and has something to say as well.

Strache wants to go back to the FPÖ and supports Kickl

Ex-FPÖ boss Heinz-Christian Strache wants to return to the FPÖ and stands behind club boss Herbert Kickl and against party chairman Norbert Hofer.

Strache accuses his successor Hofer of “cowardice” in the mask dispute with Kickl because he skipped the club meeting. "I am convinced that as party chairman he is unable to master this task and I also believe that he cannot do it for health reasons," said Strache in an interview with oe24.TV.

When asked whether he wanted to return to the FPÖ, Strache replied: “Yes. We are a family together, even if there is an argument. I am part of this family and in truth it should be officially done. ”In any case, he shakes hands with Kickl and the FPÖ. "Let's see if Kickl himself is ready to take on responsibility and trust himself to be in the front row as chairman."

Haimbuchner stands behind FPÖ chairman Hofer

The Upper Austrian Deputy Governor Manfred Haimbuchner (FPÖ) stood behind FPÖ Chairman Norbert Hofer in his first interview after his life-threatening Covid illness.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3209595

Despite all of this, the FPÖ is gaining recently because of frustration with the government.

[Tender Branson]

New* Steiermark (Styria) poll by IMAD for the "Kronen Zeitung":

34.1% ÖVP (2019 state election: 36.1%)
22.9% SPÖ (23.0%)
17.9% FPÖ (17.5%)
11.5% Greens (12.1%)
  8.5% NEOS (5.4%)
  5.2% KPÖ (6.0%)

* Actually not "new", it was conducted in February/March.

https://www.krone.at/2397898

[Tender Branson]

There’s talk of internal divisions in the FPÖ.

Today, Vienna-FPÖ leader Dominik Nepp got re-elected with 97.86% of the 385 delegates who cast valid ballots.

Nepp and guest speakers Norbert Hofer (Austrian FPÖ-leader) and mask-wearing Herbert Kickl (parliamentary FPÖ-leader) demonstrated party unity, saying there is no internal infighting.

Instead, Hofer hinted at „a huge scandal and revelations in May that will heavily impact the government, especially the Kurz-ÖVP.“

Whatever this means ...

https://wien.orf.at/stories/3100744

[Tender Branson]

The Upper Austria state + city councils + mayoral elections will officially be held on September 26, together with the German election.

https://ooe.orf.at/stories/3101115

That is only a coincidence though, Upper Austria has a 6-year term, Germany a 4-year term and it was simply the last possible Sunday in that term (state politicians usually want to complete the full term).

[Flyersfan232]

New Market/Standard poll has the SPÖ at the highest level in 2 years:

36% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
12% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% Others

48% ÖVP-Greens
51% SPÖ-FPÖ-NEOS

51% ÖVP-FPÖ
48% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125587095/tuerkis-gruene-koalition-hat-laut-umfrage-ihre-mehrheit-verloren

Ovp fpo neos?

[Tender Branson]

New Market/Standard poll has the SPÖ at the highest level in 2 years:

36% ÖVP
26% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
12% Greens
10% NEOS
  1% Others

48% ÖVP-Greens
51% SPÖ-FPÖ-NEOS

51% ÖVP-FPÖ
48% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000125587095/tuerkis-gruene-koalition-hat-laut-umfrage-ihre-mehrheit-verloren

Ovp fpo neos?

LOL no.

Hipster NEOS ain’t sharing the bed with Nazis.

[Tender Branson]

Major Austrian politicians at the Covid test: