Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[The Other Castro]

On polling, I sometimes think of this one thing Nate Silver said.

First Rule of Polling Errors: Polls almost always miss in the opposite direction of what pundits expect.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

There's a lot more uncertainty in races like these, and perhaps the conventional wisdom being in favor of Moore winning means that the polling error is going to break in favor of Jones. Or maybe this is all dumb. We'll see.

[The Other Castro]

New Shelby comments:

Manu Raju @mkraju
Alabama's senior GOP senator, Richard Shelby, unloading on Roy Moore in intvw w @jaketapper: "When it came to the 14-year-old story, that was too much for me...I couldn't vote for Roy Moore...The state of Alabama deserves better...I think the Republican Party can do better."
9:08 AM · Dec 10, 2017

https://mobile.twitter.com/mkraju/status/939859384838041600

[The Other Castro]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

[The Other Castro]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Welp, pack it up guys. Looks like Moore won by about 5,000 votes.

lol this is so random.

AP's test results appear fairly realistic for this race, though turnout seems too high. They should try to be more unrealistic in case anyone accidentally thinks the numbers are real.

[The Other Castro]

Democratic group American Bridge has a digital ad pushing Nick Saban as a write-in:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRHVfIbeGpQ&feature=youtu.be

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/939977299516063744

[The Other Castro]

Emerson poll tweets that their poll released tomorrow morning will show one candidate taking control

Emerson Poll Podcast‏ @EmersonPodcast
New @emersonpolling -> One candidate TAKES CONTROL in #ALSen - Has Doug Jones completed the COMEBACK v #RoyMoore ? Find out Monday morning on the podcast | SUBSCRIBE:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPodcast/status/939914880316002304

[The Other Castro]

Oh

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/10/roy-moore-alabama-philadelphia-football-army-navy-288861

[The Other Castro]

I've heard through the grapevines from someone who was in the know about VA polls before they released that there's a good poll for Jones releasing tomorrow. Could be the Emerson one?

I wonder if it's the SUSA one someone was posting about earlier.

Looks like that was just someone mixing up SUSA with SurveyMonkey unfortunately.

[The Other Castro]

Good god, I just read some of the comment section on the predictit page for this race.....what a dumpster fire

My rule #1 about trading, never read the comment board.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject
Michael McDonald Retweeted Bridget Bowman
This seems too low to me. I hope Alabama election officials are preparing for higher turnout
 
@bridgetbhc
AL Secretary of State John Merrill says on NPR that he’s expecting  at least 25% turnout in tomorrow’s election #ALSEN
1:37 PM - 11 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/940289520729231361

[The Other Castro]

Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

Steven Shepard from Politico says there will be.

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/939109770937688065

[The Other Castro]

I for one can’t believe J-Law is pro-Moore.

[The Other Castro]

Does anyone know if their will be an exit poll released tomorrow?

Steven Shepard from Politico says there will be.

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/939109770937688065

Do you think it will be as accurate as the 2016 General Election exit poll?

I expect some Moore voters will not agree to be polled. Some will lie.

Alabama didn't get an exit poll for the 2016 general election. But, I think it's possible you see some Jones voters lie about their intentions. A vote for a Democrat may be worse to admit than a vote for an alleged child molester.

[The Other Castro]

I for one can’t believe J-Law is pro-Moore.

Wut

Joking, didn't make it clear enough to the response above that one:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn’s model is accounting for approximately 1.3 million votes, much higher than the 25% turnout predicted by the SoS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/940360990167793664

[The Other Castro]

And he thought that story was...a positive for Moore?

[The Other Castro]

The 25% turnout estimate from the SoS is likely to be a severe undershot.

[The Other Castro]

Wow, it's looking like a landslide folks.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOj5SjiW0AEKYem.jpg
https://twitter.com/AlanMCole/status/930268145029406720

[The Other Castro]

Dave Wasserman's benchmarks have Jones needing to get at least 35% in Baldwin.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c9-tuc5E1ZzTEqecVp0D-cpxu2ab3ug9_XEt6R9vMcw/edit#gid=0

[The Other Castro]

Impale me on the needle.

[The Other Castro]

Trump approval being at 48-48 could be very big if this is representative. This I think points to Jones winning.

[The Other Castro]

Trump approval being at 48-48 could be very big if this is representative. This I think points to Jones winning.

Didn’t Jones run ahead of Trump’s approval rating by 10 points in almost all the polls? If Fox News got this right, lol...

Pretty much Trump being under net +5 points to a Jones lead I believe.

[The Other Castro]

37% Democrats
43% Republicans
20% Independents

[The Other Castro]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=279404.msg5954279#msg5954279


AWWWYEAAAAAA