Canadian Election 2019

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Discounting the possibility that there are some Liberal waverers that are considering the Tories strikes me as a mistake. At this stage, it seems that there aren't many Liberal supporters who dislike Trudeau and the Liberals have ran a rather centrist campaign but even a late shift of ~5% of Liberals to the Tories could be disastrous in marginal ridings.

Different context but, in 2011 and 2018, I was shocked by the degree to which "blue Liberals" were willing to back the Conservatives against the NDP in the GTA. These same voters have, at times, bailed on the Liberals at the last minute. Doesn't seem plausible at all this time but should be considered imo.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Liberal Party of Canada occupies a very unique space. It is similar to the Liberal Democrats in Japan or the PRI in Mexico in terms of its image as a party of power and as a party without a well-defined ideology. In practice, even if it is a shape-shifting entity, it usually governs more like a center-right party than anything else and, when it does not, it's usually due to the influence or threat of the NDP. During electoral campaigns, it always positions itself as a center-left party but, predictably, it always governs more like a center-right party.

I'd argue that the Canadian electorate basically allows it to occupy this space because Canada is such a disparate country. The Western wackos who have tended to dominate the Conservative Party since the functional demise of the Progressive Conservatives lack credibility with Canadians outside of the Prairies, oilfields - it's too adversarial and too clearly about Western interests vs. everyone else when there isn't a concerted effort to broaden the base.

Maybe I'm off-base here but I tend to be fascinated by the inability of the NDP to gain traction as a major second party at the national level when it has done so with ease in many provinces. Contrasting the achievements of NDP governments with Liberal governments always serves as a reminder of the gigantic gulf that exists between the two parties and I tend to be baffled by the existence of left-leaners who almost always vote for Liberals. I guess the specter of the wackos and nutjobs coming to power is enough of an inducement? Wynne and McGuinty were a disgrace but when compared with Ford or Harris, I can grasp why the Liberals are able to justify themselves.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Globally it appears that populist or right-leaning parties have gained ground in rural areas, while more liberal, centrist, or left-wing parties have lost ground in rural areas while making gains in urban areas. However in Canada the Liberals who epitomize liberalism and centrism have held strongly onto rural areas of Atlantic Canada, while completely being removed from the picture in the rural prairies. This is not the first time this has happened I believe, but what drives this?

For example if you hop over the border to Maine or even Upstate New York we saw huge swing to Trump in 2016. Why aren't these trends playing out in Canada?

You're misunderstanding what occurred! There were gargantuan swings towards the Conservatives in Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton. There was basically no such swing in most of rural Ontario.  Canada isn't a country where one can easily discuss "trends" by urban/rural patterns because farmers in Saskatchewan or Alberta share nothing in common with rural residents of New Brunswick, many of whom speak French (!) or who, at the very least, are very exposed to the French language and are the 10th generation descendants of Anglo settlers. Meanwhile, in Saskatchewan, immigrant heritage is of fairly recent vintage.