Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[DavidB.]

Wow, many thanks for this!

Although I think I got 2 different questions, probably because I selected the EU as something important. The questions are "Danmark bør afskaffe retsforbeholdet i næste valgperiode" and "Tyrkiet skal på sigt kunne komme med i EU", I guess the first question relates to the opt-outs that Denmark has with regard to the euro and immigration while the second one is about Turkey entering the EU (as if that would happen).

My result for Aarhus: 5 I candidates (82%, 81%), a V candidate and an O candidate (80%) and then a whole bunch of candidates from V, C, I and O until 75%, lol. Doesn't seem to give a clear result, but that's exactly what I expected. Party results at the end of the page: I 83%, C 78%, O 76%, V 74%.

Sorry, I didn't realize the questions actually changed. I chose immigration and economy as I think those two, along with health, usually tops the charts.
The first statement you got was that Denmark should remove its opt-out on justice and home affairs, which will be voted on in late 2015 or early 2016. The second is in the long term Turkey should be able to join the EU, and yes not a very relevant question at the moment.

Thanks!

[Diouf]

I have updated the post with the different questions you get with each different topic now.

My own party list:
Liberals 86%
DPP 77
Social Democrats 73%
Christian Democrats 70%
Conservatives 67%
Social Liberals 64%
Liberal Alliance 63%
Alternative 59%
SPP 54%
Red-Green Alliance 42%

[ingemann]

I got

Social Liberals 82%
Social Democrats 81%
Alternative 80%
Christian Democrats 77%
SPP 74%
Red-Green Alliance 69%
DPP 69%
Liberal 65%
Liberal Alliance 49%
Conservatives 48%

[YL]

Alternativet 86%
Enhedslisten 85%
SPP 80%
Radikale Venstre 80%
Social Democrats 70%
Christian Democrats 69%
Danish People's Party 51%
Venstre 45%
Conservatives 40%
Liberal Alliance 36%

[Boston Bread]

For Aarhus:
Social Liberal 82%
Social Democrat 80%
Christian Democrat 79%
Alternative 76%
SPP 76%
Red-Green 72%
DPP 64%
Venstre 53%
Conservative 46%
Liberal Alliance 44%

I would vote Social Democrat, although I'd be willing to lend a loan vote to another member of the red bloc teetering on the threshold to help them get more seats.
Odd that one can get a high result for both Soc Lib and Christian Dems, though. Then again I didn't choose social issues as my important issue.

[MaxQue]

SPP 79%
Red-Green Alliance 77%
Social Democrats 76%
Alternative 73%
Christian Democrats 69%
Social Liberal 69%
DPP 56%
Liberals 55%
Conservative 40%
Liberal Alliance 38%

[Diouf]

For Aarhus:
Social Liberal 82%
Social Democrat 80%
Christian Democrat 79%
Alternative 76%
SPP 76%
Red-Green 72%
DPP 64%
Venstre 53%
Conservative 46%
Liberal Alliance 44%

I would vote Social Democrat, although I'd be willing to lend a loan vote to another member of the red bloc teetering on the threshold to help them get more seats.
Odd that one can get a high result for both Soc Lib and Christian Dems, though. Then again I didn't choose social issues as my important issue.

Yeah, there is no abortion, gay marriage or teach christianity in school question where they are far apart. But generally they are both in favour of open immigration policies, mostly for christians for one them of course, and a broadly centre-right economic policy with a stated focus to help the weakest.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I got

Social Liberals 82%
Social Democrats 81%
Alternative 80%
Christian Democrats 77%
SPP 74%
Red-Green Alliance 69%
DPP 69%
Liberal 65%
Liberal Alliance 49%
Conservatives 48%

Huh, I never took you for a SocLib. I thought you were more ... traditional left?

[DavidB.]

My result was:

Liberal Alliance 83%
Conservative 78%
DPP 76%
Liberal 74%
Christian Democrats 58%
Social Democrats 48%
Radikale Venstre 35%
Alternativet 33%
Enhedslisten 31%
SPP 29%

Would probably vote DPP though.

[Hydera]

Liberal 81%
DPP 79%
Christian Democrats 74%
Liberal Alliance 74%
Conservative 73%
Social Democrats 65%
Social Liberal 57%
Alternative 56%
Socialist People's Party 46%
Red-Greens 42%

DPP would be my first choice, then Liberal, Liberal Alliance, Social Democrats, Social Liberal, Conservative,  Alternative, Socialist people's party, Red-Greens, Christian Democrats.

[ingemann]

I got

Social Liberals 82%
Social Democrats 81%
Alternative 80%
Christian Democrats 77%
SPP 74%
Red-Green Alliance 69%
DPP 69%
Liberal 65%
Liberal Alliance 49%
Conservatives 48%

Huh, I never took you for a SocLib. I thought you were more ... traditional left?

That depend on what you mean about traditional. But let's just say that I'm not part of the bleeding heart left, and I think one of the most important duties of the government are to increase the number of jobs. Also I'm less hostile to immigration than I sometimes come across as here. But I think immigration should primary focus on benefitting the host country and its citizens, it shouldn't be some kind of social work. Some of those nuances tend to be lost in a political compass.

[Silent Hunter]

(Bloomberg) -- Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democrat-led bloc leads opposition 50.5% to 49.1%, according to Voxmeter poll published by Ritzau.

OK, how accurate do Danish polls tend to be? Because Stephen Kinnock's missus i.e. the Danish PM was fully present for a blow-up just under a month ago.

[Diouf]

(Bloomberg) -- Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democrat-led bloc leads opposition 50.5% to 49.1%, according to Voxmeter poll published by Ritzau.

OK, how accurate do Danish polls tend to be? Because Stephen Kinnock's missus i.e. the Danish PM was fully present for a blow-up just under a month ago.

Not fantastic I would say. In 2011, a weighted average the day before the election gave the red bloc 51.9% and the blue bloc 48.1%. The result was 50,2% to the red bloc and 49.7% to the blue bloc. They underestimated the Liberals by about 2.5%, and overestimated the SPP by 1.4%. As far as I recall no polls, not even the exit poll, had showed the Liberals as the biggest party, which they ended up being, and very few had the blocs as close as they were.

At the local elections in 2013, DR/Epinion had an incredible polling debacle. First of all the polls varied a lot; crudely one half of them had terrible results for both the Liberals and especially the Social Democrats, while the other half had them both to remain with rather high figures. DR/Epinion then made of their own kind of poll; an exit prognosis; a weird mixture between an exit poll and a standard poll. They thought that it was so good that they even had to publish it at 14 50 when there was still hours to the polls closed. The exit prognosis showed the Social Democrats at 22.7%, a gigantic defeat, going back 8%. It was adjusted slightly, but it still showed a terrible result for the Social Democrats, which made the PM concede early on election night that it has been a grave defeat for them etc. However, when results started flowing in later in the evening, they were not at all bad for the Social Democrats. In fact, they ended up on 29.5%, only going back by 1.2%.

The polls generally did fine at the European elections 2014, but the exit polls were again off. DR/Epinion underestimated DPP by 3.6%. Additionally, their seat prediction model was either wrong, or their hosts didn't understand it, as they continiously misstated which parties were the closest to losing/gaining seats.

Unlike the UK, the tabs are not published, so we need to rely on the media to get additional information about voter movements etc, which they don't do a lot. Therefore it is hard to really know why the polls have changed so drastically from clear blue bloc leads to basically neck-and-neck since the election campaign started. Have the doubters been dominated by 2011 red bloc voters, who are now making up their mind and voting red bloc again? Or have the Social Democrats actually managed to draw back some voters from the DPP? We don't really have any idea; the media are ofc most focused on the polls themselves, and the movements up and down from day to day.

BTW the latest JP/Wilke poll gave the red bloc 51.6% and blue bloc 48.4%. Probably the best poll for the red bloc since the 2011 election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In fairness though, most countries have better polling industries than Britain.

[Diouf]

As I wrote earlier, the most likely scenario seems that it will still be a Social Democrat - Social Liberal government if the red bloc wins, but we are getting near scenarios where it could be the Social Democrats on their own. A DR/Epinion poll today, which show the blue bloc lead 50.9 - 49.1%, has the Social Democrats on 26.1% and the Social Liberals on 4.5%. That means only 8 seats for the Social Liberals and 46 for the Social Democrats. In such a scenario I think the Social Liberals would start to consider very seriously whether they should join a government as the single, very junior party. The main reason is of course that it would be more difficult for them to get a say in the government, but there is also simply a practical problem. They would probably have and want at least 3, and probably 4 ministers. This would only leave 4 regular MPs to handle all the committee work and other parliamentary activities. That is too little for a government party, so either they would have to bring in ministers from outside their MPs, which will probably cause quite some dissatisfaction among them, or, as they did a decade or two ago, make their ministers resign as MPs so their replacements get into parliament, which again will make the press go crazy as they did then, "more people on the gravy train" etc. These hurdles could be overcome, but along with a lessened influence and a recent beating at the election, it could make them want to stay out.

This is just one (really bad) poll for them; another one today has them on 7.4%, which would of course be another situation entirely. But their polls have generally been downwards trending, so not as given as it has looked for 4 years, that the Social Liberals would join a new red government.

[ingemann]

We should also remember when election campaign begins, the government almost always close some of the gap, if it's behind. What people tells polling institutes outside election may to some extent be a protest, while when the campaign begins, people becomes more partisan. Also the number of people who are in doubt what they vote falls, and let be honest people tend to prefer what they know.

[Diouf]

50/50 and Christian surge?

[Silent Hunter]

50/50 and Christian surge?

Which of course could mean that the right win by 10%...

[Diouf]

Not much substantial is happening in the campaign, so the noticeable things in the last few days have mainly been single candidates coming with obscure proposals which are then quickly ruled out by said party's leadership.

The Danish People's Party's cultural spokesperson Alex Ahrendtsen proposed that there should be a tax on commercial activities which uses foreign words. He believes the creative class prefer English because they think it makes them sound smarter; with this proposal he wants to talk to their patriotic heart, "if they have one". Another problem is of course the immigrant shops in Inner Copenhagen which uses Arabic in its promotion.

The Alternative candidate Søren Rønhede wants to ban all food products with artificial additives, flavouring and colouring. By his own estimate, that would mean a ban on around 80 % of the food products.

In the more serious end, several Social Democrats want the property taxes to rise, including MPs and a candidate which was previously a part of the independent economic advisers to the government. However, the Social Democrats, like the blue bloc parties, are opposed to this because it is very unpopular. A recent poll showed that only 16% was in favour. However, the Red-Green Alliance, the Alternative, the SPP and crucially the Social Liberals are in favour of increased property taxes, so with some Social Democrats wobbling, the right wing parties have a great opportunity to campaign against this. I would expect it to feature prominently for them in the coming days.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Parties supporting Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt backed by 51.6% of voters in Wilke poll vs. 48.4% for bloc led by Liberal Party leader Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Jyllands-Posten reports ahead of June 18 vote.

[Jens]

The Muslim burial place at Brøndby was desecrated last night...
http://www.bt.dk/danmark/muslimsk-gravplads-udsat-for-haervaerk
The local police calls it pranks... 

[Gustaf]

I   Liberal Alliance      83%

C   Konservative      69%
O   Dansk Folkeparti   68%
V   Venstre              65%

K   Kristendemokraterne   61%
A   Socialdemokraterne   57%
B   Radikale Venstre   55%

Å   Alternativet      48%
F   Socialistisk Folkeparti   44%
Ø   Enhedslisten      42%

[Max Stirner]

B   Radikale Venstre      72%
C   Konservative      69%
V   Venstre              66%
I   Liberal Alliance      62%
A   Socialdemokraterne   59%
Å   Alternativet              57%
F   Socialistisk Folkeparti   57%
K   Kristendemokraterne   55%
O   Dansk Folkeparti      53%
Ø   Enhedslisten      41%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Kristendemokraterne   Det stemte du sidst   82%
A   Socialdemokraterne      79%
O   Dansk Folkeparti      77%
Å   Alternativet      68%
B   Radikale Venstre      68%
V   Venstre      67%
I   Liberal Alliance      66%
F   Socialistisk Folkeparti      65%
C   Konservative      63%
Ø   Enhedslisten      62%


But the questions were strange a little.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm really uncertain who I'd vote for in this election out of Radikale, Konservative, and Liberal Alliance.

Radikale is the party that is closest to me, but I do really dislike Thoring-Schmidt's government. On the other hand, the option isn't much better...