2017 French Presidential Election

[Kringla Heimsins]

Another question for experts on French politics: Why doesn't Dupont-Aignan drop out and endorse Le Pen?  He and his party seem to align with her (except for him wanting a quicker Frexit).

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan still rejects fiercely the identitarian politics advocated by Marine Le Pen, even though he is moving closer to the right every week. Immigration is not his greater concern.

He also doesn't like the "flexible" secularism (laïcité) of the FN; he believes in strict separation of church and state, whereas they prefer to see Christianity as the most important part of "French roots".

Also, he doesn't want to give up his party and his role as leader.

[Kringla Heimsins]

As for the debate, I'm obviously heavily biased but I think Mélenchon did the best performance, like last time. Polls agree with me: as per a Elabe poll for BFMTV, 25% of watchers found him the most convincing, ahead of Macron (21%).

Arthaud was downright scary (she almost say "kill the rich").
Poutou made everyone laugh but I don't know if it will go further than that.
Hamon was sadly invisible.
Macron was... I don't know, what he says never makes any sense but it's feel-good bullsh**t.
Lassalle was peculiar. I want to note French is actually is third language, after Bearnese Gascon and Basque.
Fillon almost spoke with nobody. It was a monologue reminding people to be afraid.
Dupont-Aignan was forgettable.
Asselineau was giving a constitutional law lecture. He spent his time quoting constitution articles, european treaties clauses, and Chinese sayings.
Le Pen was like usual, trying to balance hard-right identitarian politics and left-wing economic populism.
Cheminade was interesting, I almost forgot his program is literally insane.

It was a fun night overall.

[Kringla Heimsins]

I'm not sure grouping Les Républicains and Front National together makes sense.

[Kringla Heimsins]

After this election, the party dynamics will be very interesting to watch.

If Hamon does less than 10%, the PS will very probably explode. The left wing can't forgive Manuel Valls' perjury and treason. The centrist wing will say Hamon was never a viable candidate anyway. I don't see a future for this party.

Same sh**t with Les Républicains. The centrist wing will be mad as hell about Fillon's scandals. The right wing will accuse them of betrayal because they tried to replace him. The party was convinced they deserved to win this year, their rage will be of epic proportions.

The ego struggle will continue in the FN. Philippot has hinted that he may not stay his entire career in the party. But Marion Maréchal-Le Pen want to stay out of politics for a while after the election, probably to get private sector experience. The evil-looking Nicolas Bay may take the lead of their right-wing anti-Philippot opposition, I don't know where this will head.

Mélenchon will also have to deal with the Communists, who constantly feel betrayed by La France Insoumise.

Of course, that is if Macron wins. If he doesn't, he is the one who will be in deep sh**t. He may just as well disappear entirely after blowing such a lead.



Also, I want to say:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php

(yes, I know sorry for the source)

Le Figaro, while a very conservative paper, is usually a trustable source. Just don't read their opinion columnists.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 82%
Benoit Hamon 78%
Philippe Poutou 77%
Nathalie Arthaud 72%
Jacques Cheminade 66%
Marine Le Pen 53%
Emmanuel Macron 51%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 51%
François Fillon 46%

Weird that NDA is that low, I actually kinda like him.
Also, sad that Asselineau and Lassalle were not in the compass.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Just wondering:

Let's say that out of nowhere Mélenchon very narrowly edges out Macron and is to face Le Pen in the runoff.  Who would win?

For what it's worth (not much), Mélenchon crushes Le Pen in the only poll made about this possible runoff: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l%27%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2017#Le_Pen_-_M.C3.A9lenchon

More polls about hypothetical second rounds are coming though, according to the Superior Audiovisual Council (yes, that's a thing here) who previously restricted the possibility to test "unrealistic" second rounds in order not to influence the voters.

Edit: it's actually the Poll Commission (source in French: https://www.marianne.net/politique/presidentielle-jean-luc-melenchon-pourrait-bientot-apparaitre-dans-des-sondages-de-second). Praise the bureaucracy.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum.
He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Sorry to double post, but Jean Lassalle just did this:



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH476oLSYj8

I'm... amazed.

[Kringla Heimsins]

I deeply regret starting a political argument.

To be honest, FP is the main thing that scares me about Mélenchon (My favorite candidate was Montebourg, Mélenchon isn't exactly my dream candidate).

He said many contradictory things about Russia, but he certainly isn't a Putin supporter. He doesn't seem to know much about Syria, he principally wants to stay out this mess, but he has only praised Putin's action against ISIS (without explicitly denouncing his strikes against the rebels).

He also (mildly) denounced Castro's and Chavez's authoritarianism many times in the past, even though he praised them when they died. I can't recall anything about Iran though.

He would definitely be crushed by Macron in a second round though.

[Kringla Heimsins]

It's not actual denial. It was also the official position of France before Chirac's presidency.

It's a "no true scotsman" fallacy: "It was not France, because the true France was in London!"

Which is bullsh**t, and implies that what makes France what it is is not its people, but its leaders.

It's ideological, but it's also supposed to please the "France can do no wrong and anything else is unnecessary repentance" crowd. This is really an unsurprising stance. I bet Fillon feel roughly the same toward the Vel d'Hiv.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Nate Silver worries about Herding in French polls: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/852552041738141696

[Kringla Heimsins]

I'm really afraid a lot of disaffected former Fillon voters from when he was at 27% will change their mind at the last minute in the voting booth, like many indecisive Republicans finally broke out in favor of Trump at the very last moment. They could think "better a crook than Macron".

And that would be terrifying. François Fillon is the worst candidate ever seeking the office of President, in my opinion.

[Kringla Heimsins]

About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them.

Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious.

Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie.

This is just amazing. I mean wow.

He's not only corrupt, but a big cretin as well.

Not only is he a mythomaniac, he is also a kleptomaniac. We already have enough Presidents with pathological mental illnesses in the world right now!

[Kringla Heimsins]

I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster



But they have it at

FIllon 22.09%
Le Pen 21.75%
Melenchon 21.11%
Macron 19.95%
Hamon 7.04%

This is how much the candidates are talked about on social medias. Every iteration of "Fillon, give the money back!", which has become an actual meme online in the form of "Rends l'argent", is credited to Fillon.
On the other hand, his voters are usually older than the general population, and are thus less active online.