I appreciate the attempt at trying to be an actuary
How much is your life expectancy?
Well, mathematically, according to the U.S. Mortality Database, the life expectancy of a 78-year old District of Columbia man such as Joe Biden is 11.33 remaining years.
However, for probability statistics like the one asked about in the poll above, it'd be a better idea to check out the mortality rate.
The mortality rate for a 78-year old man in D.C. is 39.98 out of 1,000 as of the latest data. So we can say Joe Biden has approximately a 4% chance of death this year.
However, Joe Biden needs to make it to age 82 to see the 2024 election, and his odds of dying increase every single year as he grows older.
When you add up the mortality rates of men in D.C. for ages 78, 79, 80, and 81, you get a 17.85% chance of Joe Biden dying.
Joe Biden on top of this has the incredibly stressful job of the presidency.
The numbers look slightly lower for Trump, but I chose 40 - 60% just because he's Obese.
