SC-1 special election - May 7th

[Miles]

'Have to post this from DKE:

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[Miles]

5 reasons why Colbert Busch could win from The Hill.

[Miles]

Wow, this sure made my day better.

[Miles]

Why Republicans may get the last laugh in SC-01:

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[Miles]

Yikes.

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[Miles]

PPP will have their poll out in the next hour.

[Miles]

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No kidding.

[Miles]

This is the only question in the poll that look off to me:

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Romney won the district by 18.

[Miles]

This is the only question in the poll that look off to me:

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Romney won the district by 18.

The poll also said that Republicans are sitting this one out, which means A) the sample is much more Democratic than in the actual election in 2012 and B) many people refuse to admit that they voted for a loser like Romney.

Yeah, but a 13-point drop still seems pretty large.

[Miles]

If ECB wins, there will be a tidy cluster of 3 Romney-voting districts in the Southern Atlantic seaboard that have Democratic representatives--Barrow, ECB, and McInyre.

This may be purely coincidental, but worth noting, I think. I really do think that in a neutral election year, ECB has a reasonable shot at reelection in 2014. We'll see what happens. Here's hoping that Bostic runs again and manages to win the GOP primary.

This district is very different from the other two. Much wealthier, much more urban and much whiter.

Actually, NC-07 is 72% white and SC-01 is 70%. The racially diverse areas, around Lumberton and Wilmington, were mostly cut out. GA-12 is noticeably lower, 61%.

[Miles]

Ah, must have been looking at pre-redistricting numbers for NC-07. Still a much poorer and more rural district, though.

Yeah, pre-redistricting, NC-07 was only 64% white. It lost Robeson County, which is actually plurality Native American.

[Miles]

In RRH's defense, their LA-03 poll was 51-33 Boustany, which lined up quite nicely with the result.

[Miles]

In RRH's defense, their LA-03 poll was 51-33 Boustany, which lined up quite nicely with the result.

Comparing a Republican website's poll in an RvR race to one in a DvR race is obviously unhelpful.

It was still obviously spot-on

[Miles]

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Yikes. Props to Sanford though.

[Miles]

The Fix's 5 reasons why Sanford could win:

1- Its a Republican district (not a socon district, but Republican nonetheless).
2- Sanford is still a Republican.
3- Sanford is a good politician/communicator.
4- Charleston is Sanford's base. This was pretty interesting:

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5- Colbert Busch's campaign has been okay, but not top-notch.

[Miles]

It seems to me Sanford has at least some success in "nationalizing" this election. In addition - ECB may be simply too liberal for about R+11 district: comparable districts elect (and even then - barely) such Democrats as Barrow and McIntyre, and she is substantially to the left of them.

I don't know if NC-07 or GA-11 are very compatible with SC-01, despite the similar PVIs.

I'd say SC-01 would be more like NC-09.

[Miles]

I don't really feel the need or desire to address content here, so...

1. Who is Alice Rosenbaum, exactly? Sorry, I haven't been following this thread with my fullest attention.
2. I see your grammar and punctuation haven't improved.
3. It's 'Stephen'.

Steven, Stephen, doesn't matter. The salient point is that he is prick.

It sure takes one to know one.

[Miles]

I seem you operate on just about the same level as Colbert. The main difference is what you just wrote might actually be considered funny, unlike almost all of his swill.

I was being serious. If you're mean and unpleasant most of the time, as you generally are, people tend to consider you a 'prick.'

I'm more of a Jon Stewart fan myself, but whether or not you consider Colbert funny is purely subjective. You're framing your personal opinion of him as absolute fact.

[Miles]

You are in utter denial of exactly who and what you have become. You are part and parcel of a movement that holds to a principled intolerance. What in previous time would be considered the height of poor manners is treated a mere political discourse. You just gratuitously called me "mean," "unpleasant most of the time" and a "'prick,'" as if those weren't your own words. Didn't actually occur to you that your actions were the epitome of being "mean," and "unpleasant?" Apparently, an aggressive self-righteous is part and parcel of that principled intolerance.

Best I can tell, you looked the other way the whole time. Your protestations reek of partisan, and personal,  hypocrisy.

Have a nice day.

You're calling me partisan and intolerant? How funny. Is that why many of my best friends here are Republicans while all parties seem to agree that you're an arrogant troll? You can use whatever fancy words you want, but I think thats the key here.

Even if you were be in my party and I'd still be criticizing you for your belligerent and destructive style. You don't come here to contribute anything positive. You're just lookin' for fights, while hijacking a few threads in the process.

[Miles]

Sanford- 49%
Colbert Busch- 48%
Platt- 3%

[Miles]

Calling someone a person of low moral character is a pretty weighty accusation, Bob, no? (Especially since you know me so well on the personal level!) Its not something I'd go around calling people here.

Eh. good point. As warped as your views are, I do think you actually believe them, so I do think you're sincere.

But your style is belligerent and destructive. I think most here would agree with me on that.

Well, maybe after you've actually been to North Carolina, we can have a better conversation about NC redistricting!

[Miles]

You have to recall that Miles is a guy who took the incredibly logical approach of concluding that Missouri is a miserable place because the people of Springfield weren't whining about sequestration.

Eh, that wasn't the only reason.

Seriously? I usually stick up for you, krazen, when people say you're worse than Bob

[Miles]

Karen Tumulty ‏@ktumulty 33m
Interviewed about a dozen voters at @ColbertBuschSC home polling place in Mt Pleasant. All but one had voted for @MarkSanford #sc

No kidding. So a handful of SC-01 voters are voting for Sanford just like a 'handful' of Billy Long's constituents don't like sequestration! 

[Miles]

Karen Tumulty ‏@ktumulty 33m
Interviewed about a dozen voters at @ColbertBuschSC home polling place in Mt Pleasant. All but one had voted for @MarkSanford #sc

No kidding. So a handful of SC-01 voters are voting for Sanford just like a 'handful' of Billy Long's constituents don't like sequestration!  

This is a confusing theory, because in a few hours, Sanford will have acquired thousands of votes.

Eh, I'm only making inferences from what you've posted.

And I'm sure there are likewise  thousands of voters in MO-07 who don't want sequestration.

[Miles]

There might very well be residents of MO-7 on all sides of the sequestration debate. What belies the narcissism of the political class is your jumping from the fact that some folks in MO-7 are for cutting government spending to the conclusion that MO-7 is lousy place to live. Most people who aren't obsessed with politics judge a location on things like the weather, the cost of living, the availability of jobs, and the cultural and recreational opportunities.  MO-7 has grown faster than the national average for a number of decades now. That is people have voted with their feet, and vote they have cast has been for the desirability of the Missouri Ozarks.  Are these hundreds of thousands of people wrong? Or were you, Miles?

I already said that there were other factors that shape my perception of Missouri. If I judged places solely on politics, I don't think I'd be living where I do now, Bob.

I think you're reading too far into this, as you usually do. I was just floating an idea. No need for you to attack me.