SC-1 special election - May 7th

[RogueBeaver]

Question is who`s the challenger. Looks like either Grooms or Bostic.

http://www.politico.com/2013-election/results/house/south-carolina/

[DINGO Joe]

Hilarious.   Is either of his potential opponents wacky enough to enable him to win the runoff?

[RogueBeaver]

Could be a recount (less than 1%) given how close the race for second is. Ask TF about the candidates, I don't have a clue.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The official campaign website of Curtis Bostic (who seems to be Sanford's opponent in the runoff) is http://www.stopspending.com/

[krazen1211]

http://www.stopspending.com/about-curtis



Welcome to Congress.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Oh heavens, yes! I hope Mark can survive the anti-Mark candidate in the runoff. I am not too confident, but his other challengers look like loons, so I will probably vote for Colbert-Busch if the evil forces prevail.

[DINGO Joe]

So, it's a teabagger vs a douchebagger in the runoff.

[Talleyrand]

So, it's a teabagger vs a douchebagger in the runoff.

Unfortunately either one is still heavily favored over Colbert-Busch.

I hope the tea partier takes out Sanford in the runoff; he seems like a much weaker candidate than Sanford, who has enough political skill and clout to easily win despite his prior scandals. Not that it matters much in a 40% Obama district.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Could be a recount (less than 1%) given how close the race for second is. Ask TF about the candidates, I don't have a clue.

Duke is a better one to ask since he lives in the district. I'm not even in the media market. Sanford's opponent in the runoff will be Curtis Bostic.  Even with a recount, there's no way Grooms makes up the difference.

Thanks to the 6th district gerrymander, Bostic doesn't actually live in the 1st district, tho that's not a requirement and if the districts had been drawn without a gerrymander, he'd certainly be in the 1st, so I don't see it as a likely problem for him.

[Maxwell]

So, it's a teabagger vs a douchebagger in the runoff.

Unfortunately either one is still heavily favored over Colbert-Busch.

I hope the tea partier takes out Sanford in the runoff; he seems like a much weaker candidate than Sanford, who has enough political skill and clout to easily win despite his prior scandals. Not that it matters much in a 40% Obama district.

I feel like she might be able to decoy, but ultimately, this is Sanford's to lose.

[Indy Texas]

http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/45550/115576/en/md.html?cid=150

Interesting results. Someone named Andy Patrick won Beaufort County outright but finished fifth overall.

And this poor fellow only got 86 votes. http://ricbryantforcongress.com/home

[tmthforu94]

And this poor fellow only got 86 votes. http://ricbryantforcongress.com/home

Nice site, poorly written bio.

[DINGO Joe]

The Rich gadfly vote didn't do so well as Ted Turner Jr. and Chip Limehouse combined to spend $1 million of their own money resulting in a combined 7500 votes.

[MaxQue]

The Rich gadfly vote didn't do so well as Ted Turner Jr. and Chip Limehouse combined to spend $1 million of their own money resulting in a combined 7500 votes.

That is making a wonderful 133$ by vote.
If Romney had to spend 133$ for vote he got, he would have had spent more than $8.1 billions (8.8 billions for Obama).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Rich gadfly vote didn't do so well as Ted Turner Jr. and Chip Limehouse combined to spend $1 million of their own money resulting in a combined 7500 votes.

That is making a wonderful 133$ by vote.
If Romney had to spend 133$ for vote he got, he would have had spent more than $8.1 billions (8.8 billions for Obama).

Tom Golisano spent $2000 a vote to win the nomination of a 3rd party (Independence party) in the 2002 NY governor race.

[smoltchanov]

Bostic is a socon, which would be a big plus in most of SC, but not so much in Charleston. So, Democrats must, probably, like the result - they will either get able politician with VERY big "baggage" or very narrow minded right-wing zealot as an opponent. Not that it guarantees election of Democrat, far from it, but, at least, it gives them a chance..

[Donerail]

Bostic is a socon, which would be a big plus in most of SC, but not so much in Charleston.

Bostic was actually a two-term City Councilman for Charleston, so at least part of the city likes him. Most of his stuff is fiscal, not social conservatism (though he is a socon). The guy's website is stopspending.com.

[smoltchanov]

Bostic is a socon, which would be a big plus in most of SC, but not so much in Charleston.

Bostic was actually a two-term City Councilman for Charleston, so at least part of the city likes him. Most of his stuff is fiscal, not social conservatism (though he is a socon). The guy's website is stopspending.com.

Yeah, i know that, but Charleston as a whole never seemed too socially conservative city to me. Greenville or Spartanburg - another matter. May be i am wrong, but my perception is as i described above..

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Bostic is a socon, which would be a big plus in most of SC, but not so much in Charleston.

Bostic was actually a two-term City Councilman for Charleston, so at least part of the city likes him. Most of his stuff is fiscal, not social conservatism (though he is a socon). The guy's website is stopspending.com.

Yeah, i know that, but Charleston as a whole never seemed too socially conservative city to me. Greenville or Spartanburg - another matter. May be i am wrong, but my perception is as i described above..

Your perception is right as Bostic is definitely a socon, but unlike some socons, he is not so dumb as to not know what issues he needs to address to be elected in the 1st district, which is why he's been focusing on the fiscal stuff.

Interesting results. Someone named Andy Patrick won Beaufort County outright but finished fifth overall.

Andy Patrick is from Hilton Head and represents the 123rd district in the South Carolina House of Representatives.

[minionofmidas]

He got virtually no votes outside Beaufort.

[Napoleon]

ARGH!!!!! THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A DECOY!!!!!!

[nolesfan2011]

So, it's a teabagger vs a douchebagger in the runoff.

Unfortunately either one is still heavily favored over Colbert-Busch.

I hope the tea partier takes out Sanford in the runoff; he seems like a much weaker candidate than Sanford, who has enough political skill and clout to easily win despite his prior scandals. Not that it matters much in a 40% Obama district.

Sanford will win the runoff by about 8, and beat Colbert by double digits.

 Really amused that Teddy Turner didn't do any better than 8%.. with his money and name recognition, that is plain bad.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Sanford will win the runoff by about 8, and beat Colbert by double digits.

I wouldn't bet that.  In the 2004 GOP Primary for Senate, Beasley got 37% of the vote and first place based on the strength of being an ex-Governor with loads of name recognition, but because he left office in a cloud (he was defeated by a Democrat for reelection in 2002) he only got 40% in the runoff.  (Beasley actually got fewer votes in the runoff since turnout was down.)

Sanford only got 37% of the vote in the first round, and while I expect he'll do somewhat better than Beasley did in the second, if for no other reason than Beasley was in a field of only six whereas Sanford was in a field of sixteen.  Sanford may beat Bostic, but I would be greatly surprised if it was by 8 or more points.  A pro-Sanford PAC has released a poll taken last weekend (before the primary) that showed in a head-to-head matchup with Bostic, Sanford gets 49%, Bostic 36% with 15% undecided. (5% MoE)  Given Bostic's mainly grassroots campaigning in the primary, once he goes full court press in the runoff, I expect Bostic to pick up most of the undecideds and some of Sanford's support.  Plus runoff turnout is traditionally lower than primary turnout and I suspect Sanford''s voters are softer than Bostic's in terms of their willingness to head to the polls a second time.

A lot depends on whether Sanford can pickup any endorsements from his opponents.  There were six others who got notable chunks of the electorate.  Sanford needs to get at least one of them to endorse him or may end up pulling a Beasely and get less votes in the runoff than in the primary.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So Mark Sanford vs Stephen Colbert's sister is likely? Wow, that sounds interesting.

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll the race this weekend.

SC-01 leads the poll with 50% on their website, while CO and OH are tied for 2nd.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com