Still think Trump's a little high.
What do you think is the most likely scenario for him not being the nominee?
Even a tape(s) of Trump sexually assaulting minors or him shooting someone on 5th Avenue may not be enough to secure 67 votes for removal. But should the Dems retake at least one chamber of Congress, I think the subsequent investigations of Trump will do enough damage to make the party choose Pence for 2020, even if Trump is able to finish the term (yes, I think his approvals could get that low). Looking at the SCO and NYDOJ investigations pragmatically, I find it likely Junior, Kushner, and Kremlin Barbie will all be under indictment by the time the primaries start. One's son, son-in-law, and daughter being likely criminals isn't a good look for a presidential nominee. You also have to consider the testimony that all three of them will likely be giving against him in exchange for leniency. I expect it to be quite damaging.