OK; again, I expected Romney to be doing worse than huck and gingrich (gingrich is from georgia). surprising.
Favorite Son effect. Take a good look at the poll for South Dakota, where Senator John Thune, but not Huckabee or Romney (who would win by smaller margins) absolutely crushes Obama with about a 57-40 split of the vote.
John McCain won Texas in 2008 -- but with about 10% less of the vote than Dubya won with in 2000 or 2004. Arizona, John McCain's home state, is going to be much closer n 2012 than in 2008. George McGovern found that his own state (South Dakota) was one of his best in 1972 -- in the only year in which the Democrats outperformed the average in a Presidential election since 1932. Look at how badly McGovern did in North Dakota in 1972. In 1980, Jimmy Carter conspicuously won Georgia (56-41) over Ronald Reagan in the only state in which he won a majority in an election in which he lost all but six states and DC. In 1984, Reagan won Georgia 60-37 against two Democratic nominees from places far from Georgia.
Sure, Obama did better than Kerry in Massachusetts between 2004 and 2008 -- but that is rare.
Gingrich would lose the state (look how he fares in South Carolina, a state with demographics similar to Georgia) if he had no connections to Georgia. That he would barely defeat Barack Obama in Georgia shows how weak a candidate he would be in the general election.
Explanation: almost every politician once successful knows how to appeal to the people in his own state and old habits don't die easily.
