2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[politicallefty]

I tried to create a fair map that doesn't map excessive changes and I quite like how it turned out:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c2a634a8-d0a9-44c5-b889-c93e39d8a818

Proportionality: 100/100 (partisan bias 48/100)
Competitiveness: 20/100
Compactness: 62/100
Splitting: 64/100

This map splits seven counties, including Hennepin (which must be split due to size).

MN-01: Trump+7.2, Trump+11.8, Walz+4.4
MN-02: Biden+9.4, Clinton+0.6, Walz+7.5
MN-03: Biden+21.0, Clinton+11.5, Walz+15.1
MN-04: Biden+35.5, Clinton+29.5, Walz+34.3
MN-05: Biden+60.9, Clinton+52.9, Walz+57.0
MN-06: Trump+19.5, Trump+25.4, Johnson+15.2
MN-07: Trump+31.3, Trump+32.2, Johnson+18.3
MN-08: Trump+14.0, Trump+15.3, Johnson+1.6

And unlike the current map where Klobuchar somehow won all eight districts, this map pushes MN-06 and MN-07 out of even her reach (losing by 0.1% and 1.2%, respectively). This map has 3 safe D districts in the MSP metro and 3 safe R districts in exurban MSP and outstate. This MN-02 is probably likely D and MN-01 is probably lean R, both of which move a couple points to the left on account of the districts being pulled into the MSP metro on account of population growth versus rural population loss. I think it's probably too soon to radically change the districts, particularly those that want to have MN-08 touch North Dakota.


Assuming Minnesota drops to seven districts after next Census, Democrats will probably want to extend MN-02 down into Rochester. The outstate districts will be far too Republican assuming current trends continue. The current MN-07 will be obliterated and MN-08, MN-06, and MN-01 will all move west to the state border with the Dakotas.

[politicallefty]

Assuming Minnesota drops to seven districts after next Census,

It won't. We're projected to overtake Wisconsin by then.

That'd be interesting and I hope you're right. But what's to say both MN and WI won't each lose a seat?

[politicallefty]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c2a634a8-d0a9-44c5-b889-c93e39d8a818

Proportionality: 100/100 (partisan bias 48/100)
Competitiveness: 20/100
Compactness: 62/100
Splitting: 64/100

This map splits seven counties, including Hennepin (which must be split due to size).

MN-01: Trump+7.2, Trump+11.8, Walz+4.4
MN-02: Biden+9.4, Clinton+0.6, Walz+7.5
MN-03: Biden+21.0, Clinton+11.5, Walz+15.1
MN-04: Biden+35.5, Clinton+29.5, Walz+34.3
MN-05: Biden+60.9, Clinton+52.9, Walz+57.0
MN-06: Trump+19.5, Trump+25.4, Johnson+15.2
MN-07: Trump+31.3, Trump+32.2, Johnson+18.3
MN-08: Trump+14.0, Trump+15.3, Johnson+1.6

I still think my map from the previous page is the best map that is not a gerrymander. It's largely a minimal change map that cleans up some of the issues from the current map. For the most part, the current map really is mostly fair and makes a lot of sense. I think the map I made is even better based on the new population data.

[politicallefty]

If you mean Anoka by "Ankona" that's already in metro-based districts, but not the second (and it's nowhere near there.)

Why hasn't Anoka County shifted as much to the left as the rest of the MSP metro? Apart from 2016, there's been little change in the presidential numbers in the past 20 years.

[politicallefty]

Here's the map I drew with the current lines overlaid:



It's not a least-change map, but I did have the current lines in mind when I drew it. I actually didn't look at partisanship until after it was done. The population trends within the state are pulling the districts inward to the Twin City metro. The most major change to the partisanship was the fact that I pulled MN-08 out of Washington County (opening up territory for MN-02), as I feel it is unnecessary to split the county between three districts. That also enables MN-02 to become a true suburban southern MSP district.

The DFL was pretty aggressive in trying to take MN-02 off the competitive table. My map takes it to Biden+9.4 versus theirs at Biden+12. I think you can definitely make a case for a huge northern district, but I think it's unlikely to come out of anything this decade (perhaps if MN had adopted a commission?). In terms of the broad strokes, the DFL map isn't bad. It's just very unnecessarily sloppy in terms of chopping up counties.

Going forward, MN-01 should be an interesting district to watch if it's drawn anything like my map (or the DFL's, which is extremely similar). Democrats seem to be holding up relatively well in the current iteration (as opposed to MN-08, which is gone). It moves about 3% to the left in terms of the overall margin compared with the current district. That would've been enough to hold onto the district in 2018 and probably 2020 as well.