When everyone said Obama couldn’t beat Clinton? Yeah, that never happened.

[IceSpear]

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Kind of an old article, but I didn't see it until now, and it deconstructs the "2008 redux" talking point very well.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/07/01/remember-when-nobody-gave-obama-a-chance-to-beat-clinton-never-happened/

[MurrayBannerman]

The difference between long shot and couldn't win is purely semantics.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I'm sure we can dig up some threads from 2006 with people saying exactly that.  Sure, Hilary looks like the favorite right now, but it's too early to tell what will happen in 2 years.

[IceSpear]

The difference between long shot and couldn't win is purely semantics.

The article actually addresses that as well. It shows that "Hillary is inevitable!" wasn't actually much of a thing at the time, and only emerged as a retrospective narrative.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary is currently given 9/13 odds of getting the nomination. She had greater than 70% odds at points during 2008.  Pretty pathetic that all the Hillary supporters seem to have is "she's inevitable".

[IceSpear]

Hillary is currently given 9/13 odds of getting the nomination. She had greater than 70% odds at points during 2008.  Pretty pathetic that all the Hillary supporters seem to have is "she's inevitable".

Did you read the article? If so, what points did you disagree with?

By the way, the fact that Hillary hasn't actually declared yet is probably holding back some people on those betting sites. Polls are way more valuable than they are regardless.

[Lincoln Republican]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

[IceSpear]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

Of course Chuck Schumer and James Lankford will inevitably win. Just ask President Dewey.

Seriously though, if you just want to apply the extremely lame "nobody ever knows what will happen!!!11!1!!1!11!" thing to every election, why bother discussing politics at all?

[Lincoln Republican]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

Of course Chuck Schumer and James Lankford will inevitably win. Just ask President Dewey.

Seriously though, if you just want to apply the extremely lame "nobody ever knows what will happen!!!11!1!!1!11!" thing to every election, why bother discussing politics at all?

For the definition of HISSY FIT, look in the dictionary under IceSpear.

[IceSpear]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

Of course Chuck Schumer and James Lankford will inevitably win. Just ask President Dewey.

Seriously though, if you just want to apply the extremely lame "nobody ever knows what will happen!!!11!1!!1!11!" thing to every election, why bother discussing politics at all?

For the definition of HISSY FIT, look in the dictionary under IceSpear.

That...wasn't a hissy fit? It was a genuine question. Obviously nothing is a complete certainty, but it seems there's some cognitive dissonance at play here. If anyone suggested Senators like Schumer, Lankford, Leahy, etc. could lose because "anything can happen in politics! PRESIDENT DEWEY!!!!!!!!!!!" they'd be laughed off the forum.

[Ljube]

Hillary won't even run.

[KCDem]

I'm sure we can dig up some threads from 2006 with people saying exactly that.  Sure, Hilary looks like the favorite right now, but it's too early to tell what will happen in 2 years.

You misspelled "14 months".

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Hillary won't even run.

She's already running. Hopefully she announces soon so this nonsense stops.

[Bull Moose Base]

Hillary is already running and is in a much stronger position to be the nominee than she was in 2008. Warren excites young and liberal voters a bit like Obama did but (a) she's given no sign that she wants to run (b) she won't dominate a demographic the way Obama did black voters. Hillary is better positioned to be elected president than any non-incumbent in the last 50 years.

[GaussLaw]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

Of course Chuck Schumer and James Lankford will inevitably win. Just ask President Dewey.

Seriously though, if you just want to apply the extremely lame "nobody ever knows what will happen!!!11!1!!1!11!" thing to every election, why bother discussing politics at all?

The difference is that polling 2 years ago in an open-seat general election is almost invariably wrong, whereas OK/NY senatorial predictions are not. 

Hillary is most likely the next President, but hardly a shoe-in.

[IceSpear]

Of course Hillary Clinton will inevitably win.

Just ask President Dewey.

Of course Chuck Schumer and James Lankford will inevitably win. Just ask President Dewey.

Seriously though, if you just want to apply the extremely lame "nobody ever knows what will happen!!!11!1!!1!11!" thing to every election, why bother discussing politics at all?

The difference is that polling 2 years ago in an open-seat general election is almost invariably wrong, whereas OK/NY senatorial predictions are not. 

Hillary is most likely the next President, but hardly a shoe-in.

Well, we were discussing the primary. Of course she's not a lock in the general.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary is currently given 9/13 odds of getting the nomination. She had greater than 70% odds at points during 2008.  Pretty pathetic that all the Hillary supporters seem to have is "she's inevitable".

Did you read the article? If so, what points did you disagree with?

By the way, the fact that Hillary hasn't actually declared yet is probably holding back some people on those betting sites. Polls are way more valuable than they are regardless.

Regardless of the reasons, people are now thinking it's less inevitable that she gets the nomination than they were at some points during the 2008 campaign.

[Nichlemn]

I think it was on Daily Kos Elections, but I recall an article which clearly shows that Clinton is in much better shape in primary polls compared to how she was at equivalent points in the 2008 cycles. She's like 60% with others trailing in the teens, when in 2008 she pretty much only ever got moderate pluralities.

[Ljube]

Hillary is currently given 9/13 odds of getting the nomination. She had greater than 70% odds at points during 2008.  Pretty pathetic that all the Hillary supporters seem to have is "she's inevitable".

Did you read the article? If so, what points did you disagree with?

By the way, the fact that Hillary hasn't actually declared yet is probably holding back some people on those betting sites. Polls are way more valuable than they are regardless.

Regardless of the reasons, people are now thinking it's less inevitable that she gets the nomination than they were at some points during the 2008 campaign.

That's because the precedent already happened in 2008 when she was also deemed inevitable. Because of that, people are more cautious/skeptical about her prospects.

[King]

Hillary didn't lose in the primaries in 2008. Barack Obama, a trans-formative figure and media darling who realigned the electoral map and won two terms by a solid margin, won the primaries in 2008.

Schlubs like Jim Webb or even Bernie Sanders in the primaries giving her a run are the equivalent of Chris Dodd or Bill Richardson winning the nomination in 2008, which didn't happen.

And Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney beating her is laughably stupid. Hillary would've probably beaten McCain by an even larger margin because she would have won in the South.